2018-19 Conference Honors & Awards

All-AAC
Laquincy Rideau, South Florida [jr]
Corey Davis, Houston [sr]
Jeremiah Martin, Memphis [sr]
Shizz Alston, Temple [sr]
Jarron Cumberland, Cincinnati [jr]

Player of the Year: Corey Davis, Houston
Top Defender: Tacko Fall, Central Florida
Best Freshman: Jayden Gardner, East Carolina
Coach of the Year: Kelvin Sampson, Houston

All-ACC
Ty Jerome, Virginia [jr]
RJ Barrett, Duke [fr]
De'Andre Hunter, Virginia [soph]
Cam Johnson, North Carolina [sr]
Zion Williamson, Duke [fr]

Player of the Year: Zion Williamson, Duke
Top Defender: Zion Williamson, Duke
Best Freshman: Zion Williamson, Duke
Coach of the Year: Buzz Williams, Virginia Tech

All-Big East
Markus Howard, Marquette [jr]
Shamorie Ponds, St. John's [jr]
Myles Powell, Seton Hall [jr]
Phil Booth, Villanova [sr]
Eric Paschall, Villanova [sr]

Player of the Year: Markus Howard, Marquette
Top Defender: Justin Simon, St. John's
Best Freshman: James Akinjo, Georgetown
Coach of the Year: Jay Wright, Villanova

All-Big Ten
Cassius Winston, Michigan State [jr]
Carsen Edwards, Purdue [jr]
Ignas Brazdeikis, Michigan [fr]
Ethan Happ, Wisconsin [sr]
Bruno Fernando, Maryland [soph]

Player of the Year: Cassius Winston, Michigan State
Top Defender: Josh Reaves, Penn State
Best Freshman: Ignas Brazdeikis, Michigan
Coach of the Year: John Beilein, Michigan

All-Big 12
Mikai Mason, Baylor [sr]
Barry Brown, Kansas State [sr]
Jarrett Culver, Texas Tech [soph]
Marial Shayok, Iowa State [sr]
Dedric Lawson, Kansas [jr]

Player of the Year: Jarrett Culver, Texas Tech
Top Defender: Tariq Owens, Texas Tech
Best Freshman: Jaxson Hayes, Texas
Coach of the Year: Chris Beard, Texas Tech

All-Pac-12
Payton Pritchard, Oregon [jr]
Jaylen Nowell, Washington [soph]
Matisse Thybulle, Washington [sr]
Tres Tinkle, Oregon State [jr]
Robert Franks, Washington State [sr]

Player of the Year: Matisse Thybulle, Washington
Top Defender: Matisse Thybulle, Washington
Best Freshman: Luguentz Dort, Arizona State
Coach of the Year: Mike Hopkins, Washington

All-SEC
Tremont Waters, LSU [soph]
Quinndary Weatherspoon, Mississippi State [sr]
Grant Williams, Tennessee [jr]
PJ Washington, Kentucky [soph]
Daniel Gafford, Arkansas [soph]

Player of the Year: Grant Williams, Tennessee
Top Defender: Chuma Okeke, Auburn
Best Freshman: Tyler Herro, Kentucky
Coach of the Year: Rick Barnes, Tennessee

Bracket Reaction: Nine Notes

1. This is the first time in the now nine-year history of RBP that the Selection Committee has gotten it right.  So, while the seeding was still a little off, at least the most deserving 68 teams are in the field.

2. The Big Ten has been down this year, and the Selection Committee took notice.  No Big Ten school got better than a 4 seed.  Purdue, the Big Ten regular season champ, picked up the 4, while the league's co-runners-up, Maryland and Wisconsin, received 6 and 8 seeds, respectively.  Confusingly, both Minnesota (5) and Michigan (7) were awarded lower seeds than Wisconsin.  The Wolverines at least won the conference tourney and finished 2-1 versus the Badgers this season.  Minnesota, on the other hand, finished a game behind Wisconsin, failed to advance as far in the conference tourney, and lost twice to the Badgers.

3.  Coming into the tournament as the defending champ with the fewest losses since '92 Duke, Villanova gets rewarded with...Wisconsin as its 8 seed.  The Badgers are the strongest 8 seed since Kentucky in '14.  That year the Wildcats knocked off 1 seed Wichita State in the Round of 32.

4.  Speaking of Wichita State and Kentucky, the Shockers are an extremely strong 10 seed.  First Gregg Marshall's squad will need to get past A-10 regular season champion Dayton, but Kentucky could be looking at Ken Pomeroy's 8th ranked team nationally in the Round of 32.

5.  The Selection Committee did Kentucky no favors, placing the Cats in a region that includes both North Carolina and UCLA.  While the Tar Heels likely will have to contend with either Kentucky or UCLA to advance to the Final Four, the top half of the South Region sets up nicely for Roy Williams' squad.  RBP ranks the Heels' 4 (Butler), 5 (Minnesota), and 8 (Arkansas) seeds as the weakest at each of those positions across the entire bracket.

6. Given their overall records, Vanderbilt (4 games over .500) and Michigan State (5 games over .500) have no business being 9 seeds, even in a weak field.  Both should have been headed to Dayton to play their way into the Field of 64.

7.  The Selection Committee released its 1-68 rankings of the tourney field.  Comparing those rankings to RBP's rankings (see previous post), we can see who the Committee is overvaluing and undervaluing.  The Selection Committee is overvaluing -- Vanderbilt (+13), Michigan State (+13), Minnesota (+12), Butler (+11), and Seton Hall (+8).  It is undervaluing -- Wichita State (-13), Wisconsin (-12), Middle Tennessee (-12), Nevada (-8), and Vermont (-8).  RBP and the Selection Committee agreed on Villanova (1), ETSU (52), South Dakota State (64), and Mount St. Mary's (68).

8. Here are the teams included in RBP's preseason top 25 that did not make the tourney -- Indiana (4), Syracuse (14), California (17), Connecticut (21), Texas (22), and Texas A&M (24).

9. With a healthy Chris Boucher, Oregon comes out of the Midwest and is RBP's pick for the title.  Without Boucher, the Ducks' third leading scorer and the Pac-12's top shot blocker, the Ducks will be hard-pressed to advance beyond the Sweet 16.

2015-16 Conference Honors & Awards

All-AAC

Nic Moore, Southern Methodist [sr]
James Woodard, Tulsa [sr]

Troy Caupain, Cincinnati [jr]

Quenton DeCosey, Temple [sr]

Shaq Goodwin, Memphis [sr]

Player of the Year: Nic Moore, Southern Methodist

Top Defender: Shaq Goodwin, Memphis

Best Freshman: Dedric Lawson, Memphis

Coach of the Year: Fran Dunphy, Temple

All-ACC

Cat Barber, North Carolina State [jr]

Malcolm Brogdon, Virginia [sr]

Grayson Allen, Duke [soph]

Jaron Blossomgame, Clemson [jr]

Brice Johnson, North Carolina [sr]

Player of the Year: Malcolm Brogdon, Virginia

Top Defender: Malcolm Brogdon, Virginia

Best Freshman: Brandon Ingram, Duke

Coach of the Year: Jim Larranaga, Miami

All-Big East

Kris Dunn, Providence [jr]
Isaiah Whitehead, Seton Hall [soph]

Josh Hart, Villanova [jr]

Ben Bentil, Providence [soph]

Henry Ellenson, Marquette [fr]

Player of the Year: Kris Dunn, Providence

Top Defender: Kris Dunn, Providence

Best Freshman: Henry Ellenson, Marquette

Coach of the Year: Jay Wright, Villanova

All-Big Ten

Yogi Ferrell, Indiana [sr]

Denzel Valentine, Michigan State [sr]

Jarrod Uthoff, Iowa [sr]

Nigel Hayes, Wisconsin [jr]

AJ Hammons, Purdue [sr]

Player of the Year: Denzel Valentine, Michigan State

Top Defender: AJ Hammons, Purdue

Best Freshman: Ethan Happ, Wisconsin

Coach of the Year: Tom Crean, Indiana

All-Big 12

Buddy Hield, Oklahoma [sr]

Georges Niang, Iowa State [sr]
Taurean Prince, Baylor [sr]

Perry Ellis, Kansas [sr]
Devin Williams, West Virginia [jr]

Player of the Year: Buddy Hield, Oklahoma

Top Defender: Prince Ibeh, Texas

Best Freshman: Jawun Evans, Oklahoma State

Coach of the Year: Bob Huggins, West Virginia

All-Pac-12

Gary Payton, Oregon State [sr]
Dillon Brooks, Oregon [soph]
Ryan Anderson, Arizona [sr]
Josh Scott, Colorado [sr]

Jakob Poeltl, Utah [soph]

Player of the Year: Crazy Big Head, Utah

Top Defender: Gary Payton, Oregon State

Best Freshman: Jaylen Brown, California

Coach of the Year: Dana Altman, Oregon

All-SEC

Tyler Ulis, Kentucky [soph]

Stefan Moody, Mississippi [sr]

Jamal Murray, Kentucky [fr]

Jalen Jones, Texas A&M [sr]

Ben Simmons, LSU [fr]

Player of the Year: Tyler Ulis, Kentucky

Top Defender: Alex Caruso, Texas A&M

Best Freshman: Ben Simmons, LSU

Coach of the Year: Billy Kennedy, Texas A&M

Starting Five: ACC/Big Ten Challenge Edition

1. Have to admit that I am surprised that the ACC/Big Ten Challenge ended in a 6-6 tie.  The bottom four Big Ten schools (Purdue, Iowa, Penn State, and Nebraska) are all pretty weak, but two of those (Purdue and Nebraska) actually picked up victories.  Miami's upset of Michigan State and Virginia knocking off Wisconsin in Madison on the Challenge's second night really helped the ACC against the conference I believed to be the best heading into the season.

2. Illinois is not a Top 25 team.  Yes, the Illini are an undefeated 8-0 after beating Georgia Tech tonight and are ranked 22nd in both polls.  And I will admit that new head coach John Groce's perimeter trio of Brandon Paul (who is performing at a first team all-conference level), D.J. Richardson, and Tracy Abrams probably give Chief Illiniwek enough firepower to earn an invite to the NCAA Tourney.  I will even go so far as to say that this team has the potential to finish in the top six of a very competitive Big Ten - ahead of Wisconsin (more on the Badgers later) and Northwestern.  However, this is not a Top 25 team.  Illinois' best win thus far is a 17-point win over Butler in Maui.  While Butler soundly defeated North Carolina and knocked off Marquette on a buzzer beater, I'm not sold on the Bulldogs.  Illinois also has one-point wins over Hawaii (overtime) and Gardner-Webb.  A December 8 trip to Spokane to play Gonzaga should give us a better idea of where the Illini stand.

3. With victories over Kentucky, Louisville, and now Ohio State, Duke has the most impressive resume in the country.  Still, I'm not ready to label Coach K's squad a contender.  The Blue Devils are ranked third in RBP's most recent Top 25, so it is not as if we are ignoring the extremely impressive early season accomplishments of Mason Plumlee and Company.  In fact, there are a number of reasons to be bullish on the Blue Devils.  Mason Plumlee, who just put up 21 and 17 against the Buckeyes, has turned into a very good college basketball player.  Similarly, Ryan Kelly appears to have stepped up his level of play in his senior season.  And Quinn Cook, who tallied 8 assists compared to 3 turnovers with Aaron Craft hounding him tonight, looks like the point guard Coach K was missing last season.  That being said, it is Ohio State, and not Duke, that I see as having the most room for growth and being the more likely of the two to contend for a National Championship.

4. Wisconsin is struggling.  RBP ranked the Badgers 16th in its preseason Top 25, and that looks like it may have been a mistake.  The torn ACL suffered by Josh Gasser in a late October practice has robbed Bo Ryan of the one player on the Badgers' roster who could have stepped into Jordan Taylor's shoes at point guard.  The Badgers were going to feel the effect of Taylor's departure regardless of Gasser's availability, but Gasser's absence has taken its toll, as no Badger is averaging more than 2.2 assists per contest.  Despite tonight's loss to an underwhelming Virginia squad, I expect Wisconsin to ultimately right the ship and avoid missing out on March Madness for the first time in Bo Ryan's tenure.

5. Did you watch Indiana beat up North Carolina?  The Hoosiers are the best team in the country.  I can't help but notice the ease with which they score and their marked improvement on the defensive end.  Freshman Hanner Mosquera-Perea (suspension) and senior Derek Elston (injury) will be on the floor soon for Tom Crean, adding to what is already a ridiculously deep roster.  Also, I have no idea what is going on in Chapel Hill.  There can be no doubt that the Tar Heels missed P.J. Hairston's services against the Hoosiers, but that was just ugly.  It's not even December yet, but I wouldn't criticize anyone for wondering if maybe this Carolina team just isn't very good.  

CBB Uniforms (1988-89 to Present): 12 Seeds

We are moving along with RBP's ranking of the top 64 uniforms from the 1988-89 season to the present. For more on that process, read the introduction to the original post. And now the 12 seeds:

48) Michigan State (Steve Smith):Hard to beat Sparty's green and white.



47) Michigan (Glen Rice): The large "M" and off-centered number are fantastic, but the trim on the shorts makes Glen Rice and company look like they have the hips of a 12-year old girl.




46) Seton Hall (Andrew Gaze): Seton Hall lost by a single point in overtime in the 1988-89 National Championship game, but cursive script and a pirate head on the shorts give P.J. Carlesimo's squad a one position victory over the Wolverines in the more important cooler uniform contest.





45) Notre Dame (Chris Thomas):The white unis with the four-leaf clover dotting the "i" is worthy of a much higher ranking, but the gold alternates with what appears to be some sort of Gaelic font made me throw up on my keyboard.

Notes: Big Ten/ACC Challenge

1. I see you, Indiana. Off to a 7-0 start, Tom Crean's squad is playing like a team that could make a run at a NCAA tournament bid. When Mo Creek went down with his third serious injury since arriving in Bloomington prior to the start of the season, it looked like another long year was in store for the Hoosiers. While Indiana was expected to be more competitive, a run at the NCAA tourney seemed out of reach. After beating a solid NC State team in Raleigh, though, the Hoosiers appear to be, dare I say it, a good basketball team. While the Big Ten's performance the last couple nights suggests the Big Ten may, in fact, be able to challenge the Big East for conference supremacy, I actually like the Hoosiers' chances of finishing in the top half of the conference. Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and probably Michigan look definitively better than the Hoosiers. Minnesota gutted out a victory over Virginia Tech tonight, but Tubby Smith's team is going to struggle without Trevor Mbakwe. I'm not sold on Illinois. And Northwestern and Purdue look comparable to the Hoosiers. Indiana has six quality players in Cody Zeller, Victor Oladipo. Will Sheehey (one of the more underrated players in the country), Christian Watford, Jordan Hulls, and Verdell Jones. They've got a couple of nice roll players to go along with their core six, and I like freshman Remy Abell going forward. To get an idea of just how much the talent level has improved at Indiana since Tom Crean arrived, consider big man Tom Pritchard. A steady post player who was arguably one of the Hoosiers best players as a freshman when he averaged 29 minutes and almost 10 points per contest, he's now a senior averaging playing just over 9 minutes a night. It's possible Crean will need Pritchard when conference play begins. I expect the Hoosiers' Achilles' heel to be their rebounding. While Zeller possesses an even better offensive game than I expected, he's going to get pushed around by Big Ten bigs. Christian Watford, another nice offensive player, hasn't shown much interest in hitting the glass and is limited athletically. Those worries can wait for now, though, as the Hoosier faithful have cause for optimism for the first time in three long years.

2. Despite falling to the Tar Heels by 3 in Chapel Hill, Wisconsin looks very good. Heading into the night, the Badgers owned the nation's second best defensive efficiency rating (according to Ken Pomeroy). The Badgers' defense frustrated the Tar Heels early. And, as has become customary, previously unheralded Badgers have stepped into leading roles for Bo Ryan. This year, it's Ben Brust, Jared Berggren, and Ryan Evans who have provided support to the nation's best point guard, Jordan Taylor. (Josh Gasser and Mike Bruesewitz also return after playing significant minutes last year.) I'm especially impressed by Berggren who finished with 14 points, 5 rebounds (3 offensive), and 3 steals and looked like he belonged on the same stage as Tyler Zeller and John Henson. Bottom line - Bo Ryan reloads in Madison every year. If tonight's game is on a neutral floor, that's likely a Badger victory.

3. North Carolina has issues. They beat a very good Wisconsin team tonight and deserve credit for that. Not every night is going to be a blow out, especially when facing a top 10 opponent. However, if you've watched the Tar Heels this season, you know they look out of sync and, at times, uninspired. Carolina looks like an impressive collection of individual talent, but the Heels have yet to look like a dominant team. That may seem like unfair criticism for a team ranked 5th in the nation who now has wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State (and whose only loss is to a good UNLV squad in Las Vegas). I'm not suggesting ol' Roy won't right the ship. I'm just pointing out that this isn't what we expected when we saw UNC's roster before the season began.

4. Michigan State knocked off a good Florida State team tonight in a matchup of two of the best defenses in the country. After the Spartans closed out a disappointing 2010-11 campaign and opened up this season with back-to-back losses to North Carolina and Duke, I think some of us may have written off the Spartans. That may have been premature. They looked good against a stingy Seminoles squad, and Izzo's team has a lot of upside. Draymond Green, averaging a double-double to go along with 3 assists per game, is the Spartans best player, but it's State's young guys who will decide the type of season the Spartans will have. Sophomores Keith Appling and Adreian Payne look much-improved, and freshman Branden Dawson could be special. I'm no longer sleeping on the Spartans.

5. The Big Ten's 8-4 advantage gave the conference its third consecutive Challenge victory. One bright spot for the ACC was Virginia's victory over a ranked Michigan squad. Rather than being a case of Michigan being overrated, I came away from the matchup thinking I had underestimated Virginia. A number of pundits had picked Tony Bennett's Cavaliers to finish in the top half of the ACC. I picked them to finish seventh but really didn't think Bennett had the personnel to make a run at the NCAA tourney. In what appears to be a weak ACC, the Cavs look like the fourth best team in the ACC (despite a neutral court loss to TCU). Mike Scott, the Cavs' All-ACC forward, looks like a new man after losing 20 pounds. He's averaging 15 and 10 and may make a run at conference player of the year.

All-Decade Teams: Big Ten

2001-02 through 2010-11 seasons

Each team includes the top 5 players from that program over the course of the past 10 years. As mentioned previously, I have not attempted to put together teams that fill all 5 positions on the floor.

The order in which the programs are listed corresponds to the power rankings from my previous post, "A Decade of Big Ten Basketball." This order should not be construed as a ranking of top 5s. In other words, just because I have Michigan State listed first and Ohio State third does not mean that I believe Michigan State's top 5 is better than Ohio State's top 5. That being said, I have ranked the players within each program.

Where part of a player's career came before the 2001-02 season, I have taken those years into consideration for purposes of this post.

Where a player transferred to a Big Ten program, I have not taken into account the year(s) prior to the transfer. Similarly, where a player transferred away from a Big Ten program, I have not taken into account the year(s) subsequent to the transfer.

There is no doubt that a number of talented players have suited up for Tom Izzo in the last ten years, but I was pretty surprised by just how underwhelming Michigan State's top 5 is (at least in terms of star power). Still, Izzo's ensemble cast managed 3 trips to the Final Four during that span.

1. Michigan State
1. Maurice Ager (03-06)
2. Kalin Lucas (08-11)
3. Paul Davis (03-06)
4. Draymond Green (09-present)
5. Shannon Brown (04-06)

2. Illinois
1. Dee Brown (03-06)
2. Deron Williams (03-05)
3. Frank Williams (00-02)
4. Brian Cook (00-03)
5. Luther Head (02-05)

3. Ohio State
1. Evan Turner (08-10)
2. Jared Sullinger (11-present)
3. Greg Oden (07)
4. Terrence Dials (02-06)
5. Mike Conley (07)

4. Wisconsin
1. Alando Tucker (03-07)
2. Devin Harris (02-04)
3. Jordan Taylor (09-present)
4. Jon Leuer (08-11)
5. Kirk Penney (00-03)

5. Purdue
1. JaJuan Johnson (08-11)
2. Robbie Hummel (08-present)
3. Carl Landry (05-07)
4. E'Twaun Moore (08-11)
5. Willie Deane (01-03)

6. Indiana
1. Jared Jeffries (01-02)
2. D.J. White (05-08)
3. Eric Gordon (08)
4. Bracey Wright (03-05)
5. Marco Killingsworth (06)

7. Minnesota
1. Vincent Grier (05-06)
2. Kris Humphries (04)
3. Rick Rickert (02-03)
4. Trevor Mbakwe (10-present)
5. Blake Hoffarber (08-11)

8. Michigan
1. Lavell Blanchard (00-03)
2. Manny Harris (08-10)
3. Daniel Horton (03-06)
4. DeShawn Sims (07-10)
5. Darius Morris (10-11)

9. Iowa
1. Reggie Evans (01-02)
2. Jeff Horner (03-06)
3. Adam Haluska (05-07)
4. Pierre Pierce (02-05)
5. Luke Recker (01-02)

10. Northwestern
1. John Shurna (09-present)
2. Kevin Coble (07-09)
3. Michael Thompson (08-11)
4. Vedran Vukusic (02-06)
5. Jitim Young (01-04)

11. Penn State
1. Talor Battle (08-11)
2. Geary Claxton (05-08)
3. Jamelle Cornley (06-09)
4. Jeff Brooks (08-11)
5. Stanley Pringle (08-09)

You disappoint me.

With non-conference play coming to a close, RBP takes a look at the 8 most disappointing teams in the country.

Butler (7-4): It was a tad silly to think Butler would be a Top 25 team without Gordon Hayward. That being said, the Bulldogs' decline since last year's national championship game is surprising. Butler has looked like a two-man show, and Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard are not getting enough help. Brad Stevens' squad has exactly zero quality wins, missing out on a chances to pick up signature victories against Louisville, Duke, and Xavier. The low-point in Butler's young season came in the form of a 71-68 overtime loss at home to Evansville (Go Aces!). Butler will need to clean up in conference if they want an invite to March Madness, but Horizon League dominance may prove a challenging task with the way 13-1 Cleveland State is playing.

Prediction: Butler puts together a nice Horizon League record, finishing second in the conference. The Bulldogs are upset in the conference tourney and miss the dance (while Cleveland State picks up the auto-bid).

Gonzaga (7-5): It's not for lack of talent that the Zags have failed to live up to expectations. Mark Few's team picked up a decent win against Marquette but lost to San Diego State, Kansas State, Illinois, Washington State, and Notre Dame. Wins this past week against Baylor and Xavier help tremendously. The Bulldogs have a New Year's Eve matchup against Oklahoma State and a date with Memphis on February 5, meaning there are opportunities to improve their tourney resume. Additionally, given Elias Harris' Achilles injury, the selection committee may be willing to cut Zaga some slack. While Harris' health has played a role in the Zags' poor start, the real culprits have been atrocious defense and shoddy point guard play from Demetri Goodson.

Prediction: The Zags finally figure out how to play without Matt Bouldin and dominate the West Coast Conference. Even if St. Mary's wins the WCC tourney, Gonzaga dances in March. Steven Gray, Elias Harris, and Robert Sacre have too much talent to be denied.

Michigan State (8-4): Three of the Spartans' losses have come against Top 10 teams (Connecticut, Duke, and Syracuse), and the other loss was to a talented Texas squad. Still, much more was expected from a team that was supposed to challenge Duke for national supremacy. Perhaps more disconcerting than the losses - lackluster performances against Chaminade and Oakland. So, what's happened to Sparty? Well, Kalin Lucas clearly isn't himself, as he has struggled to come back from a ruptured Achilles tendon. Draymond Green is a great passer, but he needs to park it in the post more often. Delvon Roe continues to move around like an old man, and highly touted freshman Adreian Payne has yet to contribute. And, per the usual, Tom Izzo has lined up a murderers' row non-conference schedule which will lead into play in the toughest Big Ten conference in recent memory.

Prediction: This is a Tom Izzo squad that's going to get better as the season moves forward. They are battle-tested, experienced, talented, and extremely deep. Because of the schedule, the Spartans may end up outside the Top 10 entering the tournament, but I still wouldn't be surprised by yet another Final Four run.

Murray State (8-4): The Racers won 30 games last year, beat Vanderbilt in the first round, and lost by just 2 points to eventual national runner-up Butler in the Round of 32. Returning 8 of their top 10 scorers, Murray State became a sexy preseason pick to make noise with the big boys. (I had them at 19 in my preseason rankings.) Things have not gone as planned. The Racers managed a win against Stanford but have been beaten by Ole Miss, UNLV, Oklahoma State, and conference rival Morehead State.

Prediction: Their opportunity to pick up a signature non-conference win gone, the OVC favorites will need to win their conference tourney to pick up a bid. While Morehead State (led by Kenneth Faried, averaging 18 and 14) poses a real challenge, the Isaiah Canaan-led Racers will regroup and win the conference regular season title and conference tourney.

North Carolina (8-4): Roy Williams is a great coach, but he's been pretty terrible since the start of last season, as he has refused to adapt to changes in personnel. I was a Larry Drew apologist last year, but the time has come for Roy to turn the keys over to Kendall Marshall. Perhaps more importantly, Roy may want to think about developing a consistent rotation. He shuffles his perimeter players in and out as if chemistry and rhythm have no place in the game of college basketball. Whereas last year's Heels had an advantage in the paint with Deon Thompson, Ed Davis, and Tyler Zeller, this year's team lacks bulk and is getting pushed around. Despite these shortcomings, there is simply too much talent on the UNC roster to excuse such poor play.

Prediction: The Tar Heels sneak into the NCAA Tournament thanks to a weak ACC but fail to make it to the Sweet 16. The bright side - the media realizes that it is a mistake to name a freshman Preseason First Team All-America.

Seton Hall (6-5): Okay, so no one thought the Pirates were going to win the Big East Championship, but more was expected of a team that returned a number of key pieces and won 10 conference games a season ago. While it's true that flirting with turning pro early isn't necessarily an indicator of next level talent, Seton Hall returns 3 players (Jeremy Hazell, Herb Pope, and Jeff Robinson) that seriously considered foregoing college eligibility before returning for a run at an NCAA invite. Sure, an injury to Hazell, the Pirates' leading scorer, just three games into the season hasn't helped (although maybe it did given Hazell's shot selection), but Seton Hall's play has been so uninspired, so disjointed that adding Terry Dehere and Sam Dalembert to the mix might not help things. Just to recap - the Pirates have suffered defeat at the hands of Temple, Xavier, Clemson, Arkansas, and Dayton. In other words, they've been beaten by every competent team they've played (and Arkansas). They beat Alabama, but everyone beats Alabama (just ask Iowa).

Prediction: With the personalities on the Seton Hall roster, this season has trainwreck written all over it. At this rate, the Pirates will be lucky to win 6 conference games in Kevin Willard's first season at the helm. That being said, Hazell may drop 40 in a couple games when he returns from wrist surgery.

Texas Tech (6-6): I never had high expectations for the Red Raiders, but I did pick them to finish seventh in a pretty strong Big 12 conference. Tech returned 5 of its top 6 scorers, including all-conference caliber players in point guard John Roberson and forward Mike Singletary. It seemed that not even Pat Knight's inept coaching could keep the Red Raiders from being competitive. Well, I was wrong. 12 games into the season and Tech is sitting at .500. Knight even benched Roberson and Singletary for their play in advance of a double-digit loss to UTEP. Tech has nothing even remotely resembling a quality win, and things are going to get ugly in conference play.

Prediction: Terrible season in which Tech finishes below .500 ends in the overdue firing of Pat Knight, which brings about a rant by Dick Vitale during an ESPN telecast of an unrelated Big Ten matchup between Purdue and Wisconsin about how big of a mistake the folks in Lubbock just made. Vitale then spends five minutes extolling the virtues of Bob Knight, neglecting to acknowledge the player abuse scandals that occurred at Indiana, and lamenting Pat Knight not getting a fair shake, neglecting to acknowledge that Pat Knight never would have been considered for a Division I head coaching opportunity if not for being his father's son.

Virginia Tech (6-4): The most disappointing team in the land bar none. Seth Greenberg's senior-laden squad is coming off 3 straight NCAA Tourney snubs, including last season's 23-8 regular season (which ended in a trip to the NIT). Returning 5 of their top 6 scorers, the Hokies seemed to have plenty of motivation to put together the strongest resume possible for the selection committee. Ten games into the season, however, Virginia Tech has decent wins against Oklahoma State and Mississippi State but has losses at the hands of Kansas State, UNLV, Purdue, and Virginia. As K-State guard Jacob Pullen said of the Hokies, Seth Greenberg's squad is made up of "grown men." Unfortunately, the Hokies have not been playing with the sense of urgency one would think a group of talented seniors would have knowing this is their last chance to be invited to the dance.

Prediction: A weak ACC gives the Hokies hope, but, in the end, they come up just short for the fourth year in a row. With the Hokies' bubble burst, we miss the chance to see a mature, physical team beat teams up in March.

The Michigan State Curse

It has truly been a remarkable five months for college basketball fans throughout the state of Kentucky.

Despite starting Michael Porter at point guard, January saw the 54 point explosion by Jodie Meeks against Tennessee that had UK fans bathing in the champagne-soaked after party that was positive national media attention. UK opened up their weak conference schedule with five straight convincing wins and looked to be poised to reclaim dominance in the SEC and at worst a four seed in the national tournament. Things were good.

UofL was showing signs of development into a really good college basketball team in an unbelievably tough conference. Terrence Williams was cementing his game as that of a stat filler point forward with All-American type talent and All-world type athleticism. Pitino, despite two occasions of donning an all-white linen suit, was praised for the development this team, and players such as Terrance Jennings were showcasing. Things were even better.

Then UK went on a three-game losing streak. Coach Billy Gillespie visibly started to show signs of a mental breakdown, and Michael Porter was still our point guard. After losses to Georgia's A-League Intramural Team and Florida, Kentucky was NIT bound. Things were not good.

UofL's development continued, and after a convincing win against Pittsburgh, looked to be the best team in the Big East. Even after they suffered a 33-point loss to (Brandon Cunningham's) Luke Harangody's fade away jumper, UofL stormed through the Big East regular season and championship to sit at the throne of the number one seeds. Things were great.

Three N.I.T. games, 120 minutes of Gillespie crouched and cracking his knuckles, and several hours of quiet sobbing by this blogger later and Kentucky's season was officially over. Word soon got out that Gillespie would be fired for off-court behavior and clashes that were magnified by a miserable season. Almost just as soon, Billy Donovan's name again arose as the likely replacement. He opted to stay in Florida because Dan Werner was returning he's invested in the community. Things were suicidal.

UofL marched to the Elite Eight in sometimes impressive and other times lackluster fashion. However, appeared at the onset to have a relatively easy road to the final four with the upset of Wake Forest. (Call 911 time for UK). But thanks to Michigan State, Louisville was stopped from reaching their second final four under Pitino leadership. Things were disappointing, but hardly worthy of complaint.

UK turned their attention to John Calipari, and most of the bluegrass began to feel excited again. Cal accepted the job as coach, and fifty thousand anointed him as the savior. (I'm excited about Cal. And I think any level of excitement over his hire is deserved, but I don't automatically think a coach without a national championship is going to deliver a multitude of championships to UK. He generates excitement, and I'm positive will be able to handle the attention given the coach of Kentucky, and we will be relevant, competitive, and fun to watch. That's why things are exciting.) UK seemed to have made a giant step in the right direction. Things were exciting.

UofL did not fear the hire, or dismiss the hire as inconsequential. Most realized it helps UofL as well by generating more national attention to the rivalry. But it does disappoint fans whom loved watching UK fans in agony and turmoil over the decisions and recruiting of Gillespie. There was no reason to feel bad about the status of UofL, just the loss of jokes and fire-poking that provided entertainment over the last three or four years. Things were lost, but not down.

Then UK began entertaining the idea of combining DeMarcus Cousins, Daniel Orton, Xavier Henry, and John Wall in one of the greatest recruiting classes ever with Patrick Patterson, Jodie Meeks, and Darius Miller. Visions of 1996, Phi Slamma Jamma, and the Runnin Rebels danced in Wildcat fan's heads. Things were orgasmic.

UofL gained the commitment of Mike Marra and Pitino became embroiled in a personal scandal of alleged extortion, alleged defamation, alleged personal encounters, with the soon-to-be-ex-wife of UofL's current equipment manager and close friend of Pitino. Fans pondered which was worse, and most sided with the alleged Pitino scandal. I went in the other direction because the existence of a clown wrapped in a straight-jacket tattoo on Mike Marra's left bicep is not alleged. In somewhat quiet news, Dick Pitino, the son of Rick Pitino, left UofL to work under Billy Donovan at Florida because all of Donovan's assistants become head coaches. It's a striking move considering the inability of Florida to find success after their back-to-back national championships. Things were not a good type of crazy.

Calipari locked up Cousins and Orton, but missed on Xavier Henry. As usual, some fans looked at this as a sign of the apocalypse, others, myself included, were impressed we stayed in the hunt for so long when both of Henry's parents played basketball at KU. John Wall's future remains a myth, much like that of an epic green sea creature whose name does not come to mind or Bigfoot. By all accounts he is a prospect capable of having an impact like Derrick Rose or Lebron James. He has that much talent. Most suggest it is a battle between UK and his desire to stay in state, with Florida and Miami playing the warm weather good-looking girls wild card. Regardless, just the notion that UK has a chance to land this kid has created an excitement not seen in the past three years. (Not counting my excitement after seeing Mike Marra for the first time). Things are not getting done because everyone is watching John Wall highlight videos.

As the cherry on top of the Pitino maybe sexual encounter, then extortion after the act scandal sundae, Jeremy Tyler has decided to skip his senior year of high school to play professional basketball in Europe. This means Tyler will surrender his amateur status and not play for UofL as he originally intended. As Admiral Sax accounted, this is a big loss for the UofL family, as Tyler seems like a once every ten to fifteen year type talent. He looks extraordinary on film. So much so, I'm very glad I didn't see tape of him prior to his announcement to turn pro. Things are looking down.

I don't want to suggest, even though I have in more my more irrational moments like after watching a John Wall highlight tape, that a 180 has occurred between the UofL and UK programs. I write merely to coin the phrase "The Michigan State Curse" in applying to the future years of the UofL basketball program. UofL is not down in the sense that UK was down when playing in the NIT, but UofL has taken some knocks after that loss in the Elite Eight, while UK has seemingly received only good news. Whatever happens, the first five months of 2009 will never be forgotten by either program. Now things are looking stressful for me because I wrote this rather than study for law finals.

The Contenders (11 of Them)

Tier 1

Louisville

Why They Can Win It All: One of the deepest (and healthiest) teams in America. Four Cardinals – Edgar Sosa, Jerry Smith, Andre McGee, and Preston Knowles – get significant run in the backcourt. Terrence Williams, Earl Clark, Samardo Samuels, and Terrence Jennings form a talented frontcourt rotation. And Rick Pitino isn't afraid to go deeper into bench if his top eight aren't producing. As the Cards' pressing defense is their biggest strength, this depth is integral to their success.

Why They Can't: While they have a pair of point forwards in T-Will and E5 (two of the most creative nicknames ever), the Cards' lack of a true point guard will be their ultimate demise. Sosa is a two-guard in a point guard's body, and McGee and Knowles are ineffective on the offensive end at best. History tells us that past champions have almost always featured a capable point guard that protects the ball and dictates pace. Oh, and the Cards also have trouble shooting free throws.

North Carolina

Why They Can Win It All: The Tar Heels are the most talented team in the country. Even with their injury woes, UNC is adequately deep and starts four All-American-type talents (Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green, and Tyler Hansbrough). Deon Thompson isn't too bad either. It will be hard for anyone to match Roy Williams' squad in terms of sheer firepower.

Why They Can't: Ty Lawson's toe and a lack of defensive intensity. Ol' Roy's squad can make a deep run without Lawson, but there's no way they win a championship without him. The Tar Heels are much better defenders than they are given credit for, but the lapses in concentration on the defensive end are worrisome. The tournament is not the time to suddenly develop the intestinal fortitude to play forty minutes of defense.

Pittsburgh

Why They Can Win It All: The Panthers are the most physical team in college basketball. They beat up their opponents with rough play in the post and lockdown defense on the perimeter. Every single member of Jamie Dixon's squad defends, and, with the exception of their recent loss to Providence, Pitt plays with purpose every night. They've been in tourney mode all season.

Why They Can't: When DeJuan Blair gets in foul trouble, this team really struggles. And with Pitt's physical style of play, there's a good chance Blair finds himself on the bench at some point. This may seem like digging for a reason to discount Pitt's chances, but Blair sets the tone for the Panthers and the team's identity is inextricably tied to his play. When Blair is out, this team looks lost.

Tier 2

Connecticut

Why They Can Win It All: Their frontline of Hasheem Thabeet, Jeff Adrien, and Stanley Robinson is second to none. Adrien is an absolute warrior. Robinson, the Huskies' 6-9 small forward is a matchup nightmare. And Thabeet is the most dominating force in college basketball. (Yes, even more dominating than Blake Griffin.) The tournament is all about quick turnaround in terms of preparation. And while everyone tweaks their defensive strategies to counter the opposition's offensive strengths, Thabeet requires opponents to change their offensive game plan – not an easy task this late in the season.

Why They Can't: The bench (or more accurately, the lack thereof). With Jerome Dyson's injury, the Huskies are limited to a seven-man rotation. I'm a firm believer that even an eight-man rotation is dangerously thin for a team trying to win six straight games in quick succession. Moreover, Dyson was the Huskies most dangerous perimeter scoring threat. Freshman Kemba Walker and senior Craig Austrie are going to have to increase their offensive output.

Michigan State

Why They Can Win It All: Rebounding and defense. It's become almost cliché to talk about the toughness of a Tom Izzo-coached team, but 08-09 Spartans fit the description. And while no one expects the champion to emerge from the Big Ten – a conference where the basketball is looking less and less like the game the rest of the country is playing – the Spartans, unlike their conference foes, actually have the firepower to light up the scoreboard.

Why They Can't: The Spartans lack a dynamic scorer capable of creating his own shot. Kalin Lucas is a facilitator, but he's not going to drop 20 on the opposition. Raymar Morgan has been disappointing and isn't that effective with the ball in his hands. Based on senior Goran Suton's numbers, his offensive development hit a ceiling during his junior campaign. And while Durrell Summers may eventually become that player for Tom Izzo, he's not nearly consistent enough to fill that void at this point in his career.

Oklahoma

Why They Can Win It All: Perhaps the country's most complete starting five. The Sooners' lineup features the best player in the country and arguably the top freshman. And, importantly, the two compliment one another. The attention Blake Griffin attracts in the post allows super-frosh Willie Warren to operate more freely on the perimeter. Austin Johnson, the Sooners' 6-4 senior point guard, is a crafty playmaker who excels at finding his teammates in scoring position without dominating the ball. Tyler Griffin is a banger and an excellent interior passer. And Tony Crocker shoots the three and wears a long-sleeved shirt under his jersey.

Why They Can't: A very inexperienced bench. Jeff Capel has done a decent job of patiently expanding his rotation, but it would be a stretch to call the Sooner reserves tournament-ready. Cade Davis is a solid contributer, but Juan Pattillo is the only impact player Capel can turn to in a pinch.

Wake Forest

Why They Can Win It All: No team has more upside than the Demon Deacons. NBA-caliber athletes litter Dino Guadio's roster. In fact, Jeff Teague, Al-Farouq Aminu, and James Johnson give Wake three lottery-caliber talents. L.D. Williams and Chas McFarland, while not as gifted as the headliners, also create matchup problems with their size and strength.

Why They Can't: It is highly unusual that a team that didn't even get invited to the dance one year leaves belle of the ball the next. Guadio's top three players are sophomores or younger, and that rarely equates to postseason success.

Tier 3

Clemson

Why They Can Win It All: Perhaps no squad in America epitomizes the concept of team more than the Clemson Tigers. These guys seem to genuinely enjoy playing with one another, and I don't think there's a destructive ego among them. Moreover, each Tiger has a clearly defined role. Power forward Trevor Booker is the first option on offense (not to mention one of the best defenders in the ACC). And I must say – it's refreshing to a see a team that voluntarily gets its big man touches on almost every possession. No arm-twisting. No barking from the sideline. No ill-advised threes while the post talent has his man pinned on the block. Rather, the Tigers look to the post like it's second nature. Swingman K.C. Rivers guards the opponent's best perimeter scorer and slashes to the hoop. Terrence Oglesby provides the long-range game. Raymond Sykes is the Tigers' hype man. He's active on the glass and cleans up his teammates' misfires. Demontez Stitt is the glue guy who does the dirty work.

Why They Can't: This team truly has reached its potential. Clemson is a good team but not a great one. They lack a dynamic scorer, and they don't have a point guard that can impose his will on the pace of the game. Just not enough talent to do much damage in March.

Duke

Why They Can Win It All: The Blue Devils are extremely talented and very deep at the 1-4 spots with Nolan Smith, Greg Paulus, Elliot Williams, Jon Scheyer, Gerald Henderson, and Kyle Singler. Equally effective in the half-court set or in transition, scoring is not a problem for these marksmen. And in terms of perimeter defense, Purdue may be their only competition. It would also be difficult to find a more intelligent group of basketball players. And while some of them are limited athletically, a Smith-Williams-Henderson-Singler lineup is going to hold its own against anyone.

Why They Can't: Absolutely no post presence. Singler lines up at the four, but he plays like a three. He's all finesse and angles. And while Singler can block the occasional shot, post scorers with size and explosion wreak havoc on Duke's vanilla frontline defenders. And on offense, Coach K has no one to pound the ball into when the shots aren't falling.

Memphis

Why They Can Win It All: It's time we stop doubting John Calipari's program and start realizing that Memphis puts high-quality product on the floor every year. The names may be different, but the results are the same. The nation's most talented freshman piloting a Memphis squad that is angling for a one seed. Sound familiar? And like Derrick Rose last year, Tyreke Evans is far from a one-man show. Senior Antonio Anderson and Robert Dozier are back after briefly flirting with turning pro after last year's runner-up finish. Shawn Taggart starts at the five, and he's actually more reliable and versatile on offense than his predecessor, Joey Dorsey. Doneal Mack may not be Chris Douglas-Roberts, but he's proven to be an instinctual scorer in his own right.

Why They Can't: Beating up on the wasteland that is Conference-USA basketball doesn't prepare a team for March Madness. Memphis may be confident, but most teams would be emboldened beating up on the Marshalls and Southern Misses of the world.

Villanova

Why They Can Win It All: Jay Wright has four guys capable of creating their own shot – combo guards Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher, wing Corey Stokes, and power forward Dante Cunningham. In terms of sheer offensive versatility, few teams can match Villanova. College basketball is a guard's game, and Villanova has three that can take over a game. Plus, their best player may be Cunningham, giving them a true post threat.

Why They Can't: Scoring has never been the problem for Jay Wright's teams, and, even though this year's version of Wildcats' guard-heavy lineup is better on the defensive end than in years past, it's still nowhere near national champion-caliber defense. Sure, the Big East is tough, but why would anyone expect a team that could finish no better than fourth in their own conference to win the National Championship?