Starting Five: Jared Swopshire Edition

1. As it turns out, there is life after John Shurna in Evanston. When Shurna, the sharpshooting small forward who lead the Wildcats in scoring each of the last three seasons, graduated this past spring, Northwestern seemed to have missed its best chance to earn the program's first ever NCAA Tourney bid. Enter Louisville-castoff Jared Swopshire. Swopshire is no Shurna. He's not going to match Shurna's 20 points per game, but he does give head coach Bill Carmody a shooter with length and, more importantly, a third option to go along with guard Reggie Hearn and swingman Drew Crawford.. Swopshire, who provided Louisville's Final Four team with valuable minutes just a season ago, is currently averaging 10.5 points and 6.0 rebounds per contest in just over 25 minutes of playing time. While the Wildcats have yet to beat a team of note, their 4-0 record includes margins of victory of 30, 13, 27, and 19. The Big Ten looks to be the nation's most competitive conference for a second year in a row, and the top six teams (Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) all look really strong. However, the bottom four programs (Purdue, Iowa, Penn State, and Nebraska) are going to struggle. That leaves Northwestern and an Illinois team that, despite topping Butler for the Maui Invitational title, has major question marks. While there are plenty of reasons to think the Wildcats will fall short in their quest, they are at least in the discussion. A lot of the optimism surrounding the program has to do with Swopshire. I, for one, am rooting for the kid. The Louisville program has described Swopshire's departure with a year of eligibility remaining as being a mutual decision that will provide Swop the opportunity to see more minutes. Regardless of spin, Swopshire was discarded by Rick Pitino, despite being a quality player and student. Fortunately, what is one program's trash is another program's treasure. And, perhaps appropriately, it may be the Cardinals, who look like shooting may be their only weakness, that end up regretting showing Swop the door (or at least encouraging him to walk through it).

2. After Georgetown took Indiana to overtime before falling short in its upset bid, the Captain commented that the Hoyas may have reached that level where you just go ahead and slot them into your preseason Top 25 based on coaching alone. I had the same thought a night before as they beat up on UCLA. It would be hard for me to describe just how much I like John Thompson III. I think he is one of the brightest minds in coaching. If I was a blue chip recruit, Georgetown would be on my short list based, in large part, on my infatuation with JT3. He was also RBP's Big East Coach of the Year for the 2011-12 campaign. That being said, Georgetown has been left out of RBP's Preseason Top 25 for three seasons running. Prior to the 2010-11 season, I was worried about Greg Monroe's departure and did not believe Austin Freeman and Chris Wright could carry the team. Then, before the 2011-12 season, I was convinced Georgetown was heading for a rebuilding year without Freeman and Wright. As it turned out, Jason Clark, Henry Sims, and Hollis Thompson were ready to fill the void, and the Hoyas did not miss a beat. This year I believed the Hoyas would be at a loss to replace Clark, Sims, and Thompson. I also doubted the hype surrounding sophomore forward Otto Porter. Four games into the new season, the Hoyas appear to have proven me wrong yet again. Porter looks like the best player in the Big East. Greg Whittington is averaging 12.8 points and 8.5 boards per outing. And Markel Starks is looking about as explosive as you can look in JT3's modified Princeton offense. Throw in a really productive supporting cast, and this team looks like a top ten-type team – which should not surprise anyone, since the Hoyas have been ranked in the AP top ten at some point in the season each of the past six years.

3. I am also regretting doubting Jamie Dixon and his Pittsburgh Panthers. After last year's disappointing 22-17 finish, I was a little gun shy of predicting much success for the Panthers. After watching Pitt battle a very talented Michigan squad in the NIT Season Tip-Off before coming up short in the game's final moments, I am convinced last year was merely an aberration. The Panthers are back to playing gritty, grimy basketball. With point guard Tray Woodall back to full health, this is a Top 25 team with good size and a lot of depth. Looking forward to watching more rock fights involving Dixon's squad.

4. Staying in the Keystone State, RBP would be remiss not to mention that Penn State senior guard Tim Frazier is out for the season with a ruptured Achilles tendon. As a junior, Frazier averaged 18.8 points, 6.2 assists, 4.7 rebounds, and 2.4 steals per game for a pretty poor Penn State team. Despite his lackluster supporting cast, he almost bumped Minnesota's Trevor Mbakwe from RBP's preseason All-Big Ten squad this year. The Nittany Lions plan to apply for a medical redshirt, but we will all be missing out on the pleasure of watching one of the best guards in the country perform this year.

5. Speaking of injuries and general bad luck, things could not be going much worse for Providence. This was supposed to be the year Ed Cooley's Friars contended for a NCAA Tourney bid. Much of that enthusiasm was generated by Providence's stellar recruiting class, featuring Ricardo Ledo and Kris Dunn (Rivals' numbers 6 and 16-rated recruits from the 2012 class). Providence also returned senior point guard (and RBP preseason first team All-Big East performer) Vincent Council. And then the bad news hit. Ledo is academically ineligible and will not suit up for the Friars until next season. Dunn had surgery on his shoulder and will still be out until late December. Council is out 4-5 weeks with a hamstring injury. While the Friars have managed to get out to a 3-2 start, Ed Cooley's squad likely has a long year ahead of it.

Field of 65--Version 8

1) North Carolina (27-3); Pittsburgh (28-3); Connecticut (27-3); Oklahoma (27-4)
Barring disaster in their conference tournaments, UNC, Pitt, and UConn have secured one seeds. Oklahoma's perch is more precarious. With Kansas taking the Big 12 regular season crown, the Sooners probably have to reach the Big 12 tourney championship to keep their one seed.
2) Louisville (25-5); Memphis (28-3); Michigan State (25-5);
Wake Forest (25-5)
The Cardinals win the regular season title in what is arguably the strongest conference in the history of college basketball and still don't get a one seed. What will it take for them to move up a line? Probably an early Big East tourney exit by either Pitt or UConn coupled with Louisville winning the conference tournament.
3) Duke (25-6); Kansas (25-6); Washington (24-7); Missouri (25-6)
There is a clear drop-off between Kansas and Washington. The first two on the three line could easily grab a two seed, while the second two need strong conference tourney showings to maintain their current seeding.
4) Villanova (25-6); Clemson (23-7); UCLA (24-7); Gonzaga (25-5)
Gonzaga has won 17 of its last 18, and the Bulldogs are undefeated in a pretty competitive West Coast Conference. I still say this is Mark Few's most talented squad (but not nearly his toughest or most cohesive).
5) LSU (25-6); Arizona State (22-8); Xavier (24-6); Purdue (22-9)
Xavier has put together a nice season but have been inconsistent of late. They wrapped up the Atlantic-10 regular season title this past week and avenged their February 11 loss to Dayton. But Sean Miller's club has lost four of their last ten, including their season finale to a middling Richmond squad. Had they beaten Duquesne, Charlotte, and Richmond during this ten-game span (and they should have), a three seed would have been theirs for the taking.
6) Florida State (23-8); Marquette (23-8); Syracuse (23-8); California (22-9)
Marquette is reeling after senior point guard Dominic James' season-ending injury. Buzz Williams' team finished its regular season on a four-game losing streak, doubling their season loss total in the process. While the span included games against Big East powers UConn, Louisville, Pitt, and Syracuse, one has to question whether Marquette can regroup for the postseason. An early exit from the Big East tournament could mean an eight or nine seed for the Golden Eagles.
7) Butler (26-4); Illinois (23-8); Texas (20-10);
West Virginia (21-10)
Butler will face off against Cleveland State for the Horizon League tournament championship. A loss for the Bulldogs would hurt their seeding but not their tournament hopes.
8) Dayton (25-6); BYU (24-6); Ohio State (20-9);
Boston College (21-10)
As the Selection Committee tends to place more emphasis on what a team has done in the latter part of the season, it will be interesting to see what it does with Ohio State. By any measurement, the Buckeyes are tourney-worthy. But Ohio State's profile is significantly bolstered by a three-game stretch in early December that saw the Buckeyes knock off Miami, Notre Dame, and Butler in consecutive games. And to make matters more complicated, junior David Lighty, who subsequently suffered a season-ending injury, played an important role in each of those games.
9) Utah State (27-4); Tennessee (19-11); Wisconsin (19-11);
Utah (21-9)
Another inconsistent week for Bruce Pearl's Volunteers. After improving its profile by completing the sweep of South Carolina in Columbia earlier in the week, Tennessee lost to a struggling Alabama sqaud in Knoxville.
10) South Carolina (21-8); Penn State (21-10); Texas A&M (23-8); Saint Mary's (25-5)
Penn State may very well have punched its ticket to the dance. The Nittany Lions' non-conference schedule was both soft and unimpressive (losses to Rhode Island and Temple), but their conference play has been solid – especially against the Big Ten's top three. Penn State swept Illinois and also has a win apiece over Michigan State and Purdue. Ed DeChellis' team would be an at-large lock if not for a letdown in the season finale at Iowa. Still, it looks like the Nittany Lions and the Big Ten's leading scorer, Talor Battle (17.3 ppg), will be dancing in March.
11) Arizona (19-12); Michigan (19-12); Minnesota (21-9); Providence (18-12)
Providence likely needs to win at least one game in the Big East tourney to have a chance at an at-large bid. Sure, the Friars are 10-8 in conference play, but, of those ten wins, only two came against teams that finished in the top eight in the Big East standings (Pitt and Syracuse). Providence did sweep ninth-place Cincinnati – who the Friars will likely face for a third time in the Big East tourney.
12) Auburn (21-10); New Mexico (21-10); Northern Iowa (23-10); VCU (23-9)
Jeff Lebo's balanced Auburn Tigers are peaking down the stretch, having won eight of their last ten. Oh, and the two teams they lost to during that period (LSU and Ole Miss), they also beat during that span. For Auburn to have a realistic chance at an at-large bid, though, they may have to reach the SEC final. New Mexico gets the final at-large bid. The first four out, in alphabetical order – Creighton, Davidson, Florida, Oklahoma State.
13) Western Kentucky (21-8); Siena (25-7);
College of Charleston (26-7); American U (23-7)
After beating Davidson in the Southern Conference semis, former Georgia Tech head coach Bobby Cremins and his College of Charleston Cougars are a win over Chattanooga away from dancing in March. The Cougars now have two wins over Steph Curry and company and an early season victory over South Carolina.
14) Bowling Green (17-12); North Dakota State (24-6);
Stephen F. Austin (21-7); Weber State (21-8)
North Dakota State has reached the semifinals of the Summit League tourney and is now two wins away from earning a tournament bid in just their first year of eligibility.
15) Binghamton (22-8); East Tennessee State (23-10);
Robert Morris (23-10); Radford (21-11)
Radford, who just punched its ticket by winning the Big South tournament, presents some serious matchup problems. Artsiom Parakhouski, the Highlanders' 6-11 260-pound import from Belarus, averages 16.3 points and 11.2 rebounds per game. Radford's frontline also features Joey Lynch-Flohr, a 6-8 221-pounder, who averages 13.7 points per contest. In a nod to the 1986 film Highlander, starring Christopher Lambert, I demand that the media refer to Radford's twin towers as MacLeod (Lynch-Flohr) and The Kurgan (Parakhouski). So, for instance, ESPN's Tom Brennan could say, “The Kurgan went for 39 points and 19 boards against Liberty in the Highlanders' regular season finale.” I like it. Needless to say, you don't want to mash bodies in the paint with the Highlanders. Nor do you want to challenge the Highlanders to a duel to the death – you know, because of the whole immortality thing.
16) Morgan State (20-11); Cornell (21-9); Alabama State (19-9); Morehead State (19-15); Cal State Northridge (15-13)
Cornell will be dancing in March thanks to the Big Red's finish atop the Ivy League regular season standings. The Ivy League does not have a conference tournament. In fact, the Ivy League laughs at the juvenile excitement exhibited by the rest of the country during Championship Week. Just as we laugh at their pathetic attempts to play basketball.