A Wednesday Between Night Class Post

A Draft Analysis

This analysis compares UNC Power Forward Tyler Hansbrough and Pittsburgh's DeJuan Blair. Most project Blair to be off the board by the end of the lottery and Hansbrough as a late first round to mid second round choice. Who's the better prospect? I'm not sold on Blair's draft status as being much higher than Hansbrough.
College Success. Despite Hansbrough's incredible accomplishments in college, many feel his skill set won't translate well to the NBA game. Adm. Sax is not one of those many. It is hard to find a more decorated college player than Tyler Hansbrough. Blair was a first-team All-American by most accounts of people who matter. However, Blair had relatively no tournament success. The edge is obviously to Hansbrough, but luckily for Blair this category means very little to predicting NBA success. Advantage: HANSBROUGH
Size. This is all the rave, because as many people tell me on the television: You can't teach it. Blair lists as 6-7 at 265 pounds, and I'd suspect that is about spot on. Hansbrough is 6-9 at 250 pounds, which also seems accurate. It's hard to give an advantage to either, because they are both vertically undersized to guard most big men in the NBA. It's likely they will make up for the lack of height in strength, and Blair would get the nod. Ultimately, I see Blair being able to add a lot more muscle than Hansbrough at this point. He's two years younger and his body still looks a little doughy - I suspect he could possibly get much stronger. If not, this is really a draw. BLAIR (slightly)

Athleticism. This has been the one true knock on Hansbrough's game since he joined the draft discussion each post-season since his freshman year. Frankly, I don't see a clear disadvantage for Hansbrough athletically on the defensive side of the ball. He's not a big that's going to be able to switch off on guards or even threes, but I don't think he's going to get pushed around in the post either. Blair isn't what you would refer to as a superior athlete either. His game is much like Hansbroughs in that it relies on pick and rolls and one handed finishes over smaller opponents. Utlimately, I think both of their offensive games will suffer in the NBA because of their athleticism. They will have trouble scoring. DRAW

Jump Shot. Hansbrough's jumpshot has developed nicely since his freshman year. Originally, he was able to knock down baseline 12 footers, but he has really extended his game this year. He can knock down an open three, and although most prefer he wouldnt' take them, it's still an indicator of his shot. Blair's shot is still coming along. HANSBROUGH

Defense. Neither Blair nor Hansbrough alter many shots throughout the game. Blair averages over a block a game, however. Both play good help defense, but Blair has the tendency to get in foul trouble. DRAW
Rebounding. Blair pulled down over 12 boards a game this year. Hansbrough pulled down 8, with his best year (as a Junior) pulling down ten a game. Most of Hansbrough's work is done on the offensive glass, which I think he could be really effective at in the NBA. However, Blair's width and strength are going to dominate on the defensive glass. BLAIR

Free-Throw Shooting. Hansbrough gets to the line almost as much as anyone in college basketball history, and he makes over 75 percent of his attempts there. It's a knock on his offensive production in some minds, but it's nice to know he's smart enough to draw a foul and talented enough to knock the shot down. HANSBROUGH
Potential. Arguably, Hansbrough has peaked as a basketball player. His numbers declined this year, although a lot of that has to do with the emergence of Ed Davis, Deon Thompson, and the short-lived season of Tyler Zeller. Blair is the younger, and in a best case could become a poor man's Elton Brand in the NBA. Hansbrough is already a Udonis Haslem. He would excel on a team where he is not the first or second option, and can focus on crashing the offensive boards and knocking down open jumpers off a pick and roll. It's hard to imagine Hansbrough not being a success in the NBA. But, I think Blair conceivably has the higher upside. BLAIR
This is an extremely rough sketch of what could play into one's head when addressing a big man need for the next several years. I don't think either are starters for the majority of the league, but would receive significant minutes on almost every team. Blair has more upside, but a team knows exactly what they are getting with Hansbrough. The direction to go in depends on the team, but I don't think that means lottery has to draft on potential. Hansbrough is good enough to go in the lottery. The point of this was to try and see if there really was much difference between the two players. Honestly, I don't see much of one. Blair really only has the upperhand in potential and rebounding. Hansbrough is a better shooter, better from the line, and lets a team know exactly how they will improve with him on the team.

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The UK Revolving Door

With the arrival of the Knight in Shining Hair Gel, the University of Kentucky roster for next year has become almost a complete unknown. Graduation destroyed the roster with the departure of Jared Carter. Michael Porter graduated, and though had another year of eligibility, chose to spend time with his family, rather than play for UK next year. Jodie Meeks has entered his name in the draft, with the possibility of returning for his senior year. Patrick Patterson is suspected to do the same. GJ Vilarino was released from his letter of intent, and it is suspected Daniel Orton may do the same. Demarcus Cousins verbally committed last night, and Xavier Henry, John Wall, Nolan Dennis, and Eric Bledsoe are all still considered Kentucky for next year.

Here is a worst-case scenario rotation:

Point Guard: Liggins and Galloway
Off Guards: Miller, Hood, and Razor
Big Men: Cousins, Stevenson, Pilgrim
Here is a best-case scenario rotation:

Point Guard: Wall and Dennis (Liggins/Galloway)
Off Guards: Meeks, Henry, Miller, Hood,
Big Men: Patterson, Cousins, Orton, Pilgrim

Here is an unusual, but possible roster:
Point Guard: Liggins and Bledsoe
Off Guards: Henry, Nolan Dennis, Miller, and Hood
Big Men: Patterson, Cousins, Orton

That is a young team with only two players receiving significant minutes from last year's team.

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Picture of the Week

"Stunting is a habit"

Big East Review

Cincinnati: Wrong year, wrong conference for the Bearcats. In another conference, this is a potential bubble team. Despite Cincy's unfortunate circumstances, look for the Bearcats to finish respectably. As Mick Cronin replenishes his program's talent over the next few seasons, I see a return to relevance in Cincinnati's future.

Connecticut: Jim Calhoun's squad is playing the best basketball in the country, and there's room for improvement. Jeff Adrien has provided his usual solid play and leadership. Jerome Dyson has been explosive and finishes on the break as well as anyone. Craig Austrie provides a steadying influence off the bench. Highly touted freshman Kemba Walker has been even better than expected. So where can the Huskies improve? Well, despite his dominance on the defensive end, Hasheem Thabeet's offensive development has seemingly stalled. More disconcerting for the Huskie faithful is A.J. Price's play. The talented floor general seemed to be on the brink of fulfilling his enormous potential at the end of last season, but his play thus far has been uninspired. Even with the return of Stanley Robinson, UConn will need last year's A.J. Price if they hope to add another championship to Jim Calhoun's collection.

DePaul: The Blue Demons are headed for their third losing season in Jerry Wainwright's four-year tenure. And this year's edition is particularly bad. At this point, DePaul looks like the worst the Big East has to offer. Wainwright's time in the Windy City may be drawing to a close.

Georgetown: I was extremely high on the Hoyas after their solid non-conference play and a Big East opener that saw JT3's squad topple UConn. Now, after losing five of their last six, including losses to Seton Hall and Cincy, Georgetown needs to turn things around if they want an invitation to the dance. Still, I like the odds of a strong finish for the Hoyas. DaJuan Summers is playing very good basketball. Freshman Greg Monroe has a refined game that belies his youth. Chris Wright has turned into a nice fourth option on the offensive end. And JT3 has done a nice job of patiently developing his young bench. The only thing standing in the way of the Hoyas regaining their form is senior Jessie Sapp's play. The glue guy's numbers have taken a dip this year, but Georgetown is going to need his steady hand down the stretch.

Louisville: It's hard to forget about the Cardinals uninspired non-conference play, but Louisville is starting to fulfill its preseason billing as a Final 4-caliber team. The Cards may not have a point guard (much to Rick Pitino's chagrin), but they may not need one with point forward Terrence Williams' play as of late. Look for Coach Pitino to have his squad primed for the tournament. The sky is the limit for this talented and deep team, but, unless freshman big man Terrence Jennings starts to contribute on both ends of the floor on a consistent basis, Louisville may fall short of a spot in the Final Four.

Marquette: The Golden Eagles are playing as well as anyone in the nation. Few teams have four players that can match the talents of Marquette's Jerel McNeal, Wesley Matthews, Lazar Hayward, and Dominic James. However, until Buzz Williams starts getting more out of the under-performing Maurice Acker and Dwight Burke, the Golden Eagles are probably doomed to a let-down.

Notre Dame: Everyone seems to agree that nine Big East teams will be dancing in March . I tend to agree with this assessment, but, due to the way Notre Dame's schedule is set up (strings of tough matchups and two games apiece against UConn and Louisville) and the Irish's lack of depth, look for Mike Brey's team to end up on the bubble. In the end, I predict the Irish will be on the outside looking in. I should note, however, that I think Notre Dame finishes no worse than fifth place in any other conference and contends for the SEC crown. While the Irish have no trouble putting points on the board, they're lacking on the defensive end. One more thing -- Luke Harangody and Kyle McAlarney get all the ink, but the best barometer of the Irish's prospects for success is the play of junior point guard Tory Jackson. As Jackson goes, so go the Irish.

Pittsburgh: I hope basketball fans can appreciate the way Pitt plays. There are flashier teams, and there are more talented teams, but few teams play with as much effort or with as much grit as the Panthers. Jamie Dixon's team has all the ingredients of a champion -- a physically dominating interior presence on both ends of the floor (DeJuan Blair, 14.8 ppg and 12.9 rpg), an explosive wing that can create his own shot and get to the rim (Sam Young, 17.9 ppg), a point guard who takes care of the ball (Levance Fields, 3.6-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio), an athletic perimeter defender capable of locking down the opponents' top scorer (Jermaine Dixon, 1.7 spg), and a talented supporting cast (Tyrell Biggs, Gilbert Brown, and Brad Wanamaker).

Providence: Seven Friars are averaging at least eight points per game, and it looks like Keno Davis just needed one year at Drake to prepare for his Big East coaching debut. The Friars could very well be a tournament team in another conference. Then again, Providence ended up with a favorable Big East schedule (if there is such a thing), playing Villanova, Cincinnati, and Rutgers twice, so anything's possible. Unfortunately, Providence has exactly zero quality non-conference wins. Look for the Friars to be NIT-bound after a five-game stretch to close out the regular season that includes Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, and Villanova.

Rutgers: Despite their 1-8 conference record, the Scarlet Knights are headed in the right direction in Fred Hill's third season at the helm. The play of freshmen Mike Rosario (17.5 ppg for the first McDonald's All-American in school history) and Gregory Echinique (9.5 ppg, 8.5 rbg, and 2.5 bpg) suggest brighter days are on the horizon for this long-suffering program. Rutgers will also return junior center Hamady N'Diaye and his 2.7 blocks per game.

Seton Hall: The Pirates started out the season 8-1 with wins over USC and Virgina Tech. Unfortunately, there hasn't been much for Seton Hall fans to smile about since. The good news for the Pirates is that their potent trio of Jeremy Hazell (23.4 ppg), Robert Mitchell (15.7 ppg), and Eugene Harvey (12.7 ppg) are all underclassmen.

South Florida: Year two of the Stan Heath-era at USF is upon us. As expected, Heath has improved the level of talent on the Bulls' roster. The real question is whether he can raise their level of play. So far, the answer isn't clear, but Heath doesn't exactly have a sterling record in terms of developing players over time. One bright spot for the Bulls -- the play of talented sophomore guard Dominique Jones (18.3 ppg, 4 apg, and 5 rpg).

St. John's: When the Red Storm lost senior forward Anthony Mason, Jr. for the season due to injury, it looked like it was going to be a long year for Norm Roberts' team. For the most part, it has been, but the Red Storm has responded admirably. They had every reason to finish in last in the Big East but currently sit in 11th place. Roberts has done a good job recruiting, and it looks like St. John's has taken the first baby steps toward becoming relevant again.

Syracuse: Believe it or not, this Syracuse club defends and plays with toughness and intelligence (for the most part). Jonny Flynn, Paul Harris, and Arinze Onuaku are all very good defenders. Jim Boeheim's club appears to have taken on the personality of Flynn, the fiery point guard and undisputed leader of this athletic bunch. The biggest surprise for Syracuse – the play of junior swingman Andy Rautins who is averaging double figures and gives the Orange a much-needed outside shooting threat. Despite losing four of their last six, look for Syracuse to sail into the tournament.

Villanova: This is a nice team, and, although the Wildcats really only have one quality win (a 67-57 victory against Pittsburgh), I like this team to be a tough out come tourney time. They have excellent perimeter play in Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes, and Reggie Redding. Dante Cunningham is having a terrific year in the post, and Antonio Pena gives the Wildcats another talented big.

West Virginia: He gets overlooked on a regular basis, and he's not exactly a media darling for a variety of reasons, but it's time we all recognize that Bob Huggins is quite a basketball coach. His Mountaineers are overachieving and playing excellent defense. They are as difficult to score on in the half-court as anyone. If junior point guard Joe Mazzulla hadn't been lost for the season to injury, the Neers would be really dangerous.

Player of the Year: Luke Harangody, Notre Dame
Runner-up: DeJuan Blair, Pittsburgh
This is a closer call than one might think. Harangody edges out Blair at this point in the season in large part due to the incredible numbers he's putting up (25.1 points and 13.2 rebounds per game). However, if the Irish continue their slide to the bottom of the Big East standings, a reevaluation may be necessary. Blair, playing within the confines of Pitt's more disciplined system and with a better supporting cast, isn't called on to score as many points, but his impact is just as great. In fact, Pitt's two losses can largely be attributed to Blair being in foul trouble. I would be remiss not to mention the 23 points and 22 boards (11 offensive) Blair put up on Harangody's Irish last week.

Coach of the Year: Jamie Dixon, Pittsburgh
Runner-up: Buzz Williams, Marquette
It may surprise some, but I don't even think this is a close one. No team dictates the flow of the game like Dixon's Panthers, and they do it without a gimmicky scheme. They play physical basketball in all facets of the game, and they get into their man on the defensive end of the floor. Marquette's Buzz Williams also deserves some love. He may be doing it with Tom Crean's experienced players, but Williams has stepped in admirably.

Freshman of the Year: Greg Monroe, Georgetown
Runner-up: Samardo Samuels, Louisville
Samuels has been excellent, providing the Cardinals with interior scoring and help on the boards. But it's Monroe, Georgetown's Deep South import, that is the jewel of this year's freshman class. Equally adept at playing with his back to the basket, putting the ball on the floor, and hitting the open cutter, Monroe's game is mature beyond his years. Even more impressive than Monroe's 24 and 10 against Notre Dame was his performance against UConn's Hasheem Thabeet. Reminiscent of then-freshman Tyler Hansbrough's mandhandling of then-junior Shelden Williams, Monroe put up 16 points, 4 assists, and had 3 steals to Thabeet's 4 points (and 7 blocks) in the Hoyas 74-63 victory at Connecticut. Rutgers' Mike Rosario and UConn's Kemba Walker also deserve mention for their stellar play.

Defensive Player of the Year: Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut
Runner-up: Terrence Williams, Louisville
While his offensive play has been inconsistent, there is no denying Thabeet's game-changing impact on the defensive end of the floor. With eight games of five blocks or more, Thabeet is certainly worthy of the comparisons to Dikembe Mutombo in terms of his abilities on the defensive end. The only questions remaining for Thabeet are whether his maturity and his ability to lead merit the comparison to Mount Mutombo. Williams is a distant second, but he's a game-changing defender in his own right. His ability to pick off passes in Louisville's full-court press is Ed Reed-esque, but I'd like to see him become more of a lockdown defender in the half-court.

1st Team All-Big East
Jonny Flynn, Syracuse
Terrence Williams, Louisville
Luke Harangody, Notre Dame
DeJuan Blair, Pittsburgh
Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut
This side of Lester Hudson, no one fills up a stat sheet like Terrence Williams. T-Will has 6 games with 20 or more points, 8 games with 10 or more rebounds, 7 games with 6 or more assists, 7 games with 4 or more steals, and 2 games with 3 or more blocks.

2nd Team All-Big East
Deonta Vaughn, Cincinnati
Jerel McNeal, Marquette
DaJuan Summers, Georgetown
Jeff Adrien, Connecticut
Greg Monroe, Georgetown
Few players are more important to their team than Cincy's Deonta Vaughn (15.3 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game). Without him, the Bearcats are probably at the bottom of the Big East standings. Summers' stats are all the more impressive when considering the context of Georgetown's style of play. He's taken his game to the next level on the offensive end of the floor, but, if the Hoyas are going to be successful, he's got to hit the boards and make more plays on the defensive end. Adrien, averaging a double-double, is the heart and soul of the perhaps the best team in America. And what about the Big East talent that didn't make the cut? Our apologies to Wesley Matthews, Lazar Hayward, Arinze Onuaku, Earl Clark, Dante Cunningham, Scottie Reynolds, Da'Sean Butler, Weyinmi Efejuku, Dominique Jones and, perhaps the cruelest cuts of all, Sam Young and Jeremy Hazell -- two pure scorers who leave something to be desired in other areas of the game.

All-Big East Defensive Team
Jonny Flynn, Syracuse
Jerel McNeal, Marquette
Terrence Williams, Louisville
Arinze Onuaku, Syracuse
Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut
The biggest reason for Syracuse's resurgance -- defense. If the Orange's opponents are able to get the ball up the court against the feisty Flynn, they are likely to find the lane clogged by Arinze Onuaku, the Beast of the Big East. The massive Onuaku looks more like an extremely tall linebacker than a basketball player, but his physicality has added a toughness to Jim Boeheim's club that it has been lacking in recent years. Marquette's Jerel McNeal doesn't just average 19.7 points per game. He's also averaging two steals per contest for the fourth straight season.