Tier 1
Louisville
Why They Can Win It All: One of the deepest (and healthiest) teams in America. Four Cardinals – Edgar Sosa, Jerry Smith, Andre McGee, and Preston Knowles – get significant run in the backcourt. Terrence Williams, Earl Clark, Samardo Samuels, and Terrence Jennings form a talented frontcourt rotation. And Rick Pitino isn't afraid to go deeper into bench if his top eight aren't producing. As the Cards' pressing defense is their biggest strength, this depth is integral to their success.
Why They Can't: While they have a pair of point forwards in T-Will and E5 (two of the most creative nicknames ever), the Cards' lack of a true point guard will be their ultimate demise. Sosa is a two-guard in a point guard's body, and McGee and Knowles are ineffective on the offensive end at best. History tells us that past champions have almost always featured a capable point guard that protects the ball and dictates pace. Oh, and the Cards also have trouble shooting free throws.
North Carolina
Why They Can Win It All: The Tar Heels are the most talented team in the country. Even with their injury woes, UNC is adequately deep and starts four All-American-type talents (Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green, and Tyler Hansbrough). Deon Thompson isn't too bad either. It will be hard for anyone to match Roy Williams' squad in terms of sheer firepower.
Why They Can't: Ty Lawson's toe and a lack of defensive intensity. Ol' Roy's squad can make a deep run without Lawson, but there's no way they win a championship without him. The Tar Heels are much better defenders than they are given credit for, but the lapses in concentration on the defensive end are worrisome. The tournament is not the time to suddenly develop the intestinal fortitude to play forty minutes of defense.
Pittsburgh
Why They Can Win It All: The Panthers are the most physical team in college basketball. They beat up their opponents with rough play in the post and lockdown defense on the perimeter. Every single member of Jamie Dixon's squad defends, and, with the exception of their recent loss to Providence, Pitt plays with purpose every night. They've been in tourney mode all season.
Why They Can't: When DeJuan Blair gets in foul trouble, this team really struggles. And with Pitt's physical style of play, there's a good chance Blair finds himself on the bench at some point. This may seem like digging for a reason to discount Pitt's chances, but Blair sets the tone for the Panthers and the team's identity is inextricably tied to his play. When Blair is out, this team looks lost.
Tier 2
Connecticut
Why They Can Win It All: Their frontline of Hasheem Thabeet, Jeff Adrien, and Stanley Robinson is second to none. Adrien is an absolute warrior. Robinson, the Huskies' 6-9 small forward is a matchup nightmare. And Thabeet is the most dominating force in college basketball. (Yes, even more dominating than Blake Griffin.) The tournament is all about quick turnaround in terms of preparation. And while everyone tweaks their defensive strategies to counter the opposition's offensive strengths, Thabeet requires opponents to change their offensive game plan – not an easy task this late in the season.
Why They Can't: The bench (or more accurately, the lack thereof). With Jerome Dyson's injury, the Huskies are limited to a seven-man rotation. I'm a firm believer that even an eight-man rotation is dangerously thin for a team trying to win six straight games in quick succession. Moreover, Dyson was the Huskies most dangerous perimeter scoring threat. Freshman Kemba Walker and senior Craig Austrie are going to have to increase their offensive output.
Michigan State
Why They Can Win It All: Rebounding and defense. It's become almost cliché to talk about the toughness of a Tom Izzo-coached team, but 08-09 Spartans fit the description. And while no one expects the champion to emerge from the Big Ten – a conference where the basketball is looking less and less like the game the rest of the country is playing – the Spartans, unlike their conference foes, actually have the firepower to light up the scoreboard.
Why They Can't: The Spartans lack a dynamic scorer capable of creating his own shot. Kalin Lucas is a facilitator, but he's not going to drop 20 on the opposition. Raymar Morgan has been disappointing and isn't that effective with the ball in his hands. Based on senior Goran Suton's numbers, his offensive development hit a ceiling during his junior campaign. And while Durrell Summers may eventually become that player for Tom Izzo, he's not nearly consistent enough to fill that void at this point in his career.
Oklahoma
Why They Can Win It All: Perhaps the country's most complete starting five. The Sooners' lineup features the best player in the country and arguably the top freshman. And, importantly, the two compliment one another. The attention Blake Griffin attracts in the post allows super-frosh Willie Warren to operate more freely on the perimeter. Austin Johnson, the Sooners' 6-4 senior point guard, is a crafty playmaker who excels at finding his teammates in scoring position without dominating the ball. Tyler Griffin is a banger and an excellent interior passer. And Tony Crocker shoots the three and wears a long-sleeved shirt under his jersey.
Why They Can't: A very inexperienced bench. Jeff Capel has done a decent job of patiently expanding his rotation, but it would be a stretch to call the Sooner reserves tournament-ready. Cade Davis is a solid contributer, but Juan Pattillo is the only impact player Capel can turn to in a pinch.
Wake Forest
Why They Can Win It All: No team has more upside than the Demon Deacons. NBA-caliber athletes litter Dino Guadio's roster. In fact, Jeff Teague, Al-Farouq Aminu, and James Johnson give Wake three lottery-caliber talents. L.D. Williams and Chas McFarland, while not as gifted as the headliners, also create matchup problems with their size and strength.
Why They Can't: It is highly unusual that a team that didn't even get invited to the dance one year leaves belle of the ball the next. Guadio's top three players are sophomores or younger, and that rarely equates to postseason success.
Tier 3
Clemson
Why They Can Win It All: Perhaps no squad in America epitomizes the concept of team more than the Clemson Tigers. These guys seem to genuinely enjoy playing with one another, and I don't think there's a destructive ego among them. Moreover, each Tiger has a clearly defined role. Power forward Trevor Booker is the first option on offense (not to mention one of the best defenders in the ACC). And I must say – it's refreshing to a see a team that voluntarily gets its big man touches on almost every possession. No arm-twisting. No barking from the sideline. No ill-advised threes while the post talent has his man pinned on the block. Rather, the Tigers look to the post like it's second nature. Swingman K.C. Rivers guards the opponent's best perimeter scorer and slashes to the hoop. Terrence Oglesby provides the long-range game. Raymond Sykes is the Tigers' hype man. He's active on the glass and cleans up his teammates' misfires. Demontez Stitt is the glue guy who does the dirty work.
Why They Can't: This team truly has reached its potential. Clemson is a good team but not a great one. They lack a dynamic scorer, and they don't have a point guard that can impose his will on the pace of the game. Just not enough talent to do much damage in March.
Duke
Why They Can Win It All: The Blue Devils are extremely talented and very deep at the 1-4 spots with Nolan Smith, Greg Paulus, Elliot Williams, Jon Scheyer, Gerald Henderson, and Kyle Singler. Equally effective in the half-court set or in transition, scoring is not a problem for these marksmen. And in terms of perimeter defense, Purdue may be their only competition. It would also be difficult to find a more intelligent group of basketball players. And while some of them are limited athletically, a Smith-Williams-Henderson-Singler lineup is going to hold its own against anyone.
Why They Can't: Absolutely no post presence. Singler lines up at the four, but he plays like a three. He's all finesse and angles. And while Singler can block the occasional shot, post scorers with size and explosion wreak havoc on Duke's vanilla frontline defenders. And on offense, Coach K has no one to pound the ball into when the shots aren't falling.
Memphis
Why They Can Win It All: It's time we stop doubting John Calipari's program and start realizing that Memphis puts high-quality product on the floor every year. The names may be different, but the results are the same. The nation's most talented freshman piloting a Memphis squad that is angling for a one seed. Sound familiar? And like Derrick Rose last year, Tyreke Evans is far from a one-man show. Senior Antonio Anderson and Robert Dozier are back after briefly flirting with turning pro after last year's runner-up finish. Shawn Taggart starts at the five, and he's actually more reliable and versatile on offense than his predecessor, Joey Dorsey. Doneal Mack may not be Chris Douglas-Roberts, but he's proven to be an instinctual scorer in his own right.
Why They Can't: Beating up on the wasteland that is Conference-USA basketball doesn't prepare a team for March Madness. Memphis may be confident, but most teams would be emboldened beating up on the Marshalls and Southern Misses of the world.
Villanova
Why They Can Win It All: Jay Wright has four guys capable of creating their own shot – combo guards Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher, wing Corey Stokes, and power forward Dante Cunningham. In terms of sheer offensive versatility, few teams can match Villanova. College basketball is a guard's game, and Villanova has three that can take over a game. Plus, their best player may be Cunningham, giving them a true post threat.
Why They Can't: Scoring has never been the problem for Jay Wright's teams, and, even though this year's version of Wildcats' guard-heavy lineup is better on the defensive end than in years past, it's still nowhere near national champion-caliber defense. Sure, the Big East is tough, but why would anyone expect a team that could finish no better than fourth in their own conference to win the National Championship?
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