With non-conference play coming to a close, RBP takes a look at the 8 most disappointing teams in the country.
Butler (7-4): It was a tad silly to think Butler would be a Top 25 team without Gordon Hayward. That being said, the Bulldogs' decline since last year's national championship game is surprising. Butler has looked like a two-man show, and Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard are not getting enough help. Brad Stevens' squad has exactly zero quality wins, missing out on a chances to pick up signature victories against Louisville, Duke, and Xavier. The low-point in Butler's young season came in the form of a 71-68 overtime loss at home to Evansville (Go Aces!). Butler will need to clean up in conference if they want an invite to March Madness, but Horizon League dominance may prove a challenging task with the way 13-1 Cleveland State is playing.
Prediction: Butler puts together a nice Horizon League record, finishing second in the conference. The Bulldogs are upset in the conference tourney and miss the dance (while Cleveland State picks up the auto-bid).
Gonzaga (7-5): It's not for lack of talent that the Zags have failed to live up to expectations. Mark Few's team picked up a decent win against Marquette but lost to San Diego State, Kansas State, Illinois, Washington State, and Notre Dame. Wins this past week against Baylor and Xavier help tremendously. The Bulldogs have a New Year's Eve matchup against Oklahoma State and a date with Memphis on February 5, meaning there are opportunities to improve their tourney resume. Additionally, given Elias Harris' Achilles injury, the selection committee may be willing to cut Zaga some slack. While Harris' health has played a role in the Zags' poor start, the real culprits have been atrocious defense and shoddy point guard play from Demetri Goodson.
Prediction: The Zags finally figure out how to play without Matt Bouldin and dominate the West Coast Conference. Even if St. Mary's wins the WCC tourney, Gonzaga dances in March. Steven Gray, Elias Harris, and Robert Sacre have too much talent to be denied.
Michigan State (8-4): Three of the Spartans' losses have come against Top 10 teams (Connecticut, Duke, and Syracuse), and the other loss was to a talented Texas squad. Still, much more was expected from a team that was supposed to challenge Duke for national supremacy. Perhaps more disconcerting than the losses - lackluster performances against Chaminade and Oakland. So, what's happened to Sparty? Well, Kalin Lucas clearly isn't himself, as he has struggled to come back from a ruptured Achilles tendon. Draymond Green is a great passer, but he needs to park it in the post more often. Delvon Roe continues to move around like an old man, and highly touted freshman Adreian Payne has yet to contribute. And, per the usual, Tom Izzo has lined up a murderers' row non-conference schedule which will lead into play in the toughest Big Ten conference in recent memory.
Prediction: This is a Tom Izzo squad that's going to get better as the season moves forward. They are battle-tested, experienced, talented, and extremely deep. Because of the schedule, the Spartans may end up outside the Top 10 entering the tournament, but I still wouldn't be surprised by yet another Final Four run.
Murray State (8-4): The Racers won 30 games last year, beat Vanderbilt in the first round, and lost by just 2 points to eventual national runner-up Butler in the Round of 32. Returning 8 of their top 10 scorers, Murray State became a sexy preseason pick to make noise with the big boys. (I had them at 19 in my preseason rankings.) Things have not gone as planned. The Racers managed a win against Stanford but have been beaten by Ole Miss, UNLV, Oklahoma State, and conference rival Morehead State.
Prediction: Their opportunity to pick up a signature non-conference win gone, the OVC favorites will need to win their conference tourney to pick up a bid. While Morehead State (led by Kenneth Faried, averaging 18 and 14) poses a real challenge, the Isaiah Canaan-led Racers will regroup and win the conference regular season title and conference tourney.
North Carolina (8-4): Roy Williams is a great coach, but he's been pretty terrible since the start of last season, as he has refused to adapt to changes in personnel. I was a Larry Drew apologist last year, but the time has come for Roy to turn the keys over to Kendall Marshall. Perhaps more importantly, Roy may want to think about developing a consistent rotation. He shuffles his perimeter players in and out as if chemistry and rhythm have no place in the game of college basketball. Whereas last year's Heels had an advantage in the paint with Deon Thompson, Ed Davis, and Tyler Zeller, this year's team lacks bulk and is getting pushed around. Despite these shortcomings, there is simply too much talent on the UNC roster to excuse such poor play.
Prediction: The Tar Heels sneak into the NCAA Tournament thanks to a weak ACC but fail to make it to the Sweet 16. The bright side - the media realizes that it is a mistake to name a freshman Preseason First Team All-America.
Seton Hall (6-5): Okay, so no one thought the Pirates were going to win the Big East Championship, but more was expected of a team that returned a number of key pieces and won 10 conference games a season ago. While it's true that flirting with turning pro early isn't necessarily an indicator of next level talent, Seton Hall returns 3 players (Jeremy Hazell, Herb Pope, and Jeff Robinson) that seriously considered foregoing college eligibility before returning for a run at an NCAA invite. Sure, an injury to Hazell, the Pirates' leading scorer, just three games into the season hasn't helped (although maybe it did given Hazell's shot selection), but Seton Hall's play has been so uninspired, so disjointed that adding Terry Dehere and Sam Dalembert to the mix might not help things. Just to recap - the Pirates have suffered defeat at the hands of Temple, Xavier, Clemson, Arkansas, and Dayton. In other words, they've been beaten by every competent team they've played (and Arkansas). They beat Alabama, but everyone beats Alabama (just ask Iowa).
Prediction: With the personalities on the Seton Hall roster, this season has trainwreck written all over it. At this rate, the Pirates will be lucky to win 6 conference games in Kevin Willard's first season at the helm. That being said, Hazell may drop 40 in a couple games when he returns from wrist surgery.
Texas Tech (6-6): I never had high expectations for the Red Raiders, but I did pick them to finish seventh in a pretty strong Big 12 conference. Tech returned 5 of its top 6 scorers, including all-conference caliber players in point guard John Roberson and forward Mike Singletary. It seemed that not even Pat Knight's inept coaching could keep the Red Raiders from being competitive. Well, I was wrong. 12 games into the season and Tech is sitting at .500. Knight even benched Roberson and Singletary for their play in advance of a double-digit loss to UTEP. Tech has nothing even remotely resembling a quality win, and things are going to get ugly in conference play.
Prediction: Terrible season in which Tech finishes below .500 ends in the overdue firing of Pat Knight, which brings about a rant by Dick Vitale during an ESPN telecast of an unrelated Big Ten matchup between Purdue and Wisconsin about how big of a mistake the folks in Lubbock just made. Vitale then spends five minutes extolling the virtues of Bob Knight, neglecting to acknowledge the player abuse scandals that occurred at Indiana, and lamenting Pat Knight not getting a fair shake, neglecting to acknowledge that Pat Knight never would have been considered for a Division I head coaching opportunity if not for being his father's son.
Virginia Tech (6-4): The most disappointing team in the land bar none. Seth Greenberg's senior-laden squad is coming off 3 straight NCAA Tourney snubs, including last season's 23-8 regular season (which ended in a trip to the NIT). Returning 5 of their top 6 scorers, the Hokies seemed to have plenty of motivation to put together the strongest resume possible for the selection committee. Ten games into the season, however, Virginia Tech has decent wins against Oklahoma State and Mississippi State but has losses at the hands of Kansas State, UNLV, Purdue, and Virginia. As K-State guard Jacob Pullen said of the Hokies, Seth Greenberg's squad is made up of "grown men." Unfortunately, the Hokies have not been playing with the sense of urgency one would think a group of talented seniors would have knowing this is their last chance to be invited to the dance.
Prediction: A weak ACC gives the Hokies hope, but, in the end, they come up just short for the fourth year in a row. With the Hokies' bubble burst, we miss the chance to see a mature, physical team beat teams up in March.
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