Your 2009 National Champions: The North Carolina Tar Heels

In honor of the Tar Heels' fantastic season, I thought it best to post Jamie Foxx's latest music video, which features the computer voice of one T-Pain. This should surprise no one, as T-Pain is omnipresent within the hip-hop community these days. What may surprise you, however, is the video's roster of guest stars. Samuel L. Jackson, Forest Whitaker, Jake Gyllenhaal, and Ron Howard. Yes, Ron Howard, director of Apollo 13 and Opie Taylor from the Andy Griffith Show.



Anyway, congratulations to the 2009 North Carolina Tar Heels and Ron Howard. Well done, gentlemen.

March Madness: National Championship

After splitting the Final Four games, my tourney record stands at 47-15. One game left.

2 Michigan State vs. 1 North Carolina [9:21 ET]
The Pick: North Carolina
-Michigan State has exceeded expectations en route to Tom Izzo's fifth Final Four. The Spartans are deep and perhaps ahead of schedule, as they will return the majority of their 11-man rotation for next season. But, the Tar Heels began the season as the clear favorites and now close out the season in the same position. Ol' Roy's squad has won all of its tourney games by at least 12 points -- beating overmatched Radford by 43, SEC champion LSU by 14, Mark Few's talented Gonzaga squad by 21, Oklahoma and Player of the Year Blake Griffin by 12, and Villanova by 14 in the Final Four. While the Heels never quite lived up to their preseason billing as potentially the most dominant team in history, Psycho T and company have the opportunity to close out their championship run in style. And, if there's one thing Psycho T knows (other than how to dominate the souls of other human beings), it's style. The Spartans have a shot, but expect the Tar Heels to prevail.

March Madness: Final Four

Heading into the Final Four, I'm 46-14 for the tourney. Three games to go. And now, my Final Four picks...

2 Michigan State vs. 1 Connecticut [6:07 ET]
The Pick: Connecticut
-The Spartans' depth could keep this one close. Plus, Goran Suton's range may force Hasheem Thabeet out of his comfort zone on the defensive end. Ultimately, however, I think UConn's star power (A.J. Price, Jeff Adrien, and Thabeet) will be too much.

3 Villanova vs. 1 North Carolina [8:47 ET]
The Pick: North Carolina
-Villanova is playing fantastic basketball, and the future is bright in Philly. But this is Carolina's year. The Tar Heels' frontcourt is going to have its way with the Wildcats. I expect a big game out of Psycho T.

March Madness: Elite Eight

To all the readers out there (I believe your name is Chris from Duke) who were upset by my failure to predict the Elite Eight games, I apologize.

If it makes you feel any better, you didn't miss anything, as I would have gone 1-3 for the weekend. I had UNC over Oklahoma but also believed Louisville would top Michigan State, Pitt would top Villanova, and, in an upset, Mizzou would top UConn. If you're keeping tabs at home that puts me at 46-14 for the tourney (when you factor in my 4-0 record for the second day of the Sweet 16).

Despite my poor showing, I really wasn't that surprised by the outcomes. However, Louisville really disappointed against the Spartans. Coming in as the number one overall number one seed, the Cards lucked into the easiest road to the Elite Eight. After playing a near-perfect game against Arizona in the Sweet 16, the Cards ran into a focused Michigan State squad that outplayed and outworked the favorites. Unfortunately for Cards' fans, this was without a doubt Louisville's best chance to win a championship during the Rick Pitino era. While a return to the Sweet 16 is a definite possibility for UofL next season, it does not appear that they will be quite so formidable.

That being said, I'll be back next week with Final Four picks.

March Madness: Sweet 16 (Day 2)

I went 3-1 for Day One of the Sweet 16. Thus, I now sit at 41-11 for the tourney overall. I had Memphis over Missouri, despite my love affair with Mike Anderson. Mizzou kind of flew under the radar all season long, but, if the Tigers can upset UConn in the Elite Eight, basketball fans will get the chance to become more familiar with a team that is a load of fun to watch. As they showed during their 102-91 win over Memphis, Missouri likes to run. They also like to press and trap...for pretty much the entire game. Oh, and they also have two 6-8-plus post players who run the floor like gazelles and can play with their backs to the baskets -- seniors DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons who both flirted with the NBA Draft after their junior years and who are possibly the best kept secrets in college basketball. Carroll, in particular, is a unique player. Besides his Predator-like appearance and top-level athleticism, the guy brings a blue-collar mentality to the game and is in non-stop motion for forty minutes.

On to the second batch of Sweet 16 picks.

12 Arizona vs. 1 Louisville [7:07 ET]
The Pick: Louisville
-Depth is the name of the game in this one. Louisville has it in excess, while Arizona's bench is woefully thin. The Wildcats' Big Three (Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger, and Nic Wise) will give the Cards trouble, but look for them to be gassed by the second half.

3 Syracuse vs. 2 Oklahoma [7:27 ET]
The Pick: Oklahoma
-I actually like Syracuse more than Oklahoma, but I just can't get past the feeling that Jim Boeheim's club is due for a letdown. 'Cuse has been playing great basketball for weeks now, but their regular season body of work does not lead me to believe they can put together this many wins in a row. That being said, Boeheim has about four post players to rotate on Blake Griffin. Willie Warren is going to need a big scoring game for the Sooners.

3 Kansas vs. 2 Michigan State [9:37 ET]
The Pick: Michigan State
-This one is going to be close. I love the Sherron Collins-Cole Aldrich combo, but I'm not sure the Jayhawks' young supporting cast is up to the challenge of a veteran Michigan State squad. Perhaps most importanly, Tom Izzo has a host of big bodies to throw at Aldrich.

4 Gonzaga vs. 1 North Carolina [9:57 ET]
The Pick: North Carolina
-If UNC is going to get beat, it's going to be to a team that focuses for for forty minutes and plays a physical-style of basketball. Gonzaga is not that team. The Bulldogs have the talent but are too soft and suffer from their own mental lapses.

March Madness: Sweet 16 (Day 1)

I finished 7-1 on Day Two of the Round of 32 (Wisconsin over Xavier was my only miss), which puts me at 14-2 for the second round and 38-10 overall.

I should note that it's certainly much easier to pick the winner at the beginning of each round. My bracket (or what's left of it) is proof if of this fact.

Without further ado, my first batch of Sweet 16 picks.

5 Purdue vs. 1 Connecticut [7:07 ET]
The Pick: Connecticut
-Purdue is playing very good basketball, and, thanks to the teleunit scandal (pictured above) swirling around Storrs, Jim Calhoun's squad has plenty of disractions heading into Thursday's matchup. While my heart says Purdue, my head can't get past Jeff Adrien's muscle and Hasheem Thabeet's length. I look for UConn to squeak by in a close one.

4 Xavier vs. 1 Pittsburgh [7:27 ET]
The Pick: Pittsburgh
-Pitt has been in something of a funk so far in the tourney. Still, the Xavier guards will need to come up huge if the Musketeers are going to have a chance. Ultimately, I think the Panthers win in a semi-blowout due to their play in the paint.

3 Missouri vs. 2 Memphis [9:37 ET]
The Pick: Memphis
-I think this is the closest call of the bunch. Mizzou's 40 minutes of hell defense will test freshman point guard Tyreke Evans. Not to mention that he will be defended in the half-court by J.T. Tiller -- one of the nation's most talented perimeter defenders. Mizzou has the advantage in the post, but I like the Memphis wings in this one. Look for Antonio Anderson, in particular, to be a game-changer.

3 Villanova vs. 2 Duke [9:57 ET]
The Pick: Villanova
-Jay Wright's guards get all the attention, but the Wildcats frontcourt will be the difference in this one. Gerald Henderson will have to put his teammates on his back if the Blue Devils are to prevail.

March Madness: Round of 32 (Day 2)

After going 24-8 for the first round, I opened up the second round at 7-1. (I had Washington over Purdue, but the Boilermakers took care of business in a close one.) Not too shabby, but, again, it's not like I predicted any huge upsets. Overall, I'm 31-9 heading into Day Two of the second round. Oh, and Coach K is headed back to the Sweet 16 for the first time since the 2005-06 season much to the chagrin of college basketball fans everywhere.

6 Arizona State vs. 3 Syracuse [12:10 ET]
The Pick: Syracuse
-I like Jim Boeheim's team to prevail here, but who guards James Harden? I don't think Eric Devendorf is up to the task. Jonny Flynn is too short. And I'm not sure Paul Harris is cerebral enough to guard Harden (and his repertoire of pump fakes and jab steps) without getting into foul trouble. The Sun Devils could win, but Harden would need to be spectacular.

12 Wisconsin vs. 4 Xavier [2:20 ET]
The Pick: Wisconsin
-Look for the Badgers' patience on the offensive end to frustrate Sean Miller's Musketeers. Plus, Bo Ryan has a number of capable defenders to throw at Derrick Brown.

11 Dayton vs. 3 Kansas [2:30 ET]
The Pick: Kansas
-Dayton is more than athletic enough to play with the Jayhawks, but Cole Aldrich should have his way with the undersized Flyers. Still, if Dayton can keep Aldrich from racking up the trash baskets, an upset is a real possibility here. Bill Self's squad hasn't been playing great basketball as of late.

13 Cleveland State vs. 12 Arizona [2:40 ET]
The Pick: Arizona
-Arizona's three-man show of Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger, and Nic Wise was sensational against Utah in the first round. Hill went for 17 points and 13 boards. Budinger finished with 20 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, and four steals. And Wise dropped 29 on the Runnin' Utes. Cleveland State could certainly pull off the (minor) upset here, but I just don't think they have an answer for Hill. That being said, don't be surprised if the Cats fail to advantage of this obvious mismatch and choose to jack up ill-advised threes instead. In that case, mark the Vikings down for the Sweet 16.

8 Oklahoma State vs. 1 Pittsburgh [2:50 ET]
The Pick: Pittsburgh
-The Cowboys are going to have to get out to a lead early if they want to have a chance in this one. Travis Ford's squad is short in the post and thin on the bench. Not a good combination for a team hoping to knock off the physically imposing and deep Pitt Panthers.

6 Marquette vs. 3 Missouri [4:50 ET]
The Pick: Missouri
-Marquette has no answer for Mizzou's post tandem of DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons. I'm looking forward to seeing J.T. Tiller and Jerel McNeal square off. Two of the nation's premiere perimeter defenders going at it.

10 USC vs. 2 Michigan State [5:00 ET]
The Pick: Michigan State
-Upset potential here, but I like the Spartans to out-rebound and out-defend the inconsistent Trojans. The Kalin Lucas-Daniel Hackett point guard matchup is a contrast in styles but should be interesting.

9 Siena vs. 1 Louisville [5:20 ET]
The Pick: Louisville
-Siena has nice guards, but Louisville's relentless defensive pressure is going to wear them down. Plus, I'm not sure the Saints have an answer for Earl Clark (that is, of course, if E5 is interested in scoring in the post on Sunday).

March Madness: Round of 32 (Day 1)

First off, I'd like to invite our readers (if there are any), to check out Captain Montana's most recent post. Commodore Finnegan and I welcome the Captain back from his sabbatical and look forward to future posts. I'm thinking the Married Guy's Friday Night Post angle has promise. Kind of like a weekly Rick Reilly piece that doesn't make you wish you were dead. Now back to the madness...

Day Two of the Round of 64 was not kind to my bracket. After going 14-2 on Day One, I could only muster a 10-6 mark on Friday, leaving me at 24-8 for the first round. So where did I go wrong on Day Two? Well, I had Utah over Arizona, Wake Forest over Cleveland State, Tennessee over Oklahoma State, Florida State over Wisconsin, Temple over Arizona State, and West Virginia over Dayton. While I liked Dayton all season, the West Virginia loss surprised me. In fact, I thought the Mountaineers would reach the Elite Eight. Still, the biggest upset of the day had to be 13 seed Cleveland State's upset of 4 seed Wake Forest. Rumor has it that immediately following the game, a spontaneous, citywide reenactment of the Drew Carey Show's opening sequence took place on the streets of Cleveland. By way of full disclosure, I should also note that, while I predicted Kansas' victory over North Dakota State, my prediction that Sherron Collins would take Ben Woodside to the woodshed was just a tad off the mark. Collins got his 32, but Woodside dropped 37 on the Jayhawks. Overall, not a good day for Ivan Renko's Upside (the name of my bracket).

Before I reveal my first set of round two picks, let's take a look at how the power conferences stack up after round one.

Big 12: 6-0
Big East: 6-1
Pac-10: 5-1
Big Ten: 4-3
ACC: 3-4
SEC: 1-2

After I called out the Pac-10 for its Day One performances, I'm eating crow in light of Arizona, Arizona State, and USC picking up wins on Day Two. The Atlantic-10 actually managed a 2-1 first round record, placing the "mid-major" just ahead of the SEC.

Now, on to a batch of round two picks in which I pick the lower seed in every game.

3 Villanova vs. 6 UCLA [1:05 ET]
The Pick: Villanova
-Part of me wants to take UCLA here. The Bruins had the scare against VCU, which can be a good thing. Plus, there's the whole three straight trips to the Final Four thing. In the end, though, I have to take Nova. Jay Wright's squad has too many weapons on the offensive end. UCLA's strength is their perimeter defense, but there's only so much that you can do against the Wildcats' ballhandlers. Plus, Nova had its own scare against American U and should be ready to go.

10 Maryland vs. 2 Memphis [3:20 ET]
The Pick: Memphis
-Memphis has far too many weapons for Gary Williams' club. Maryland got past California, but the Tigers defense will be the difference in this one. Look for Calipari to apply pressure early and often to Terp point guard Greivis Vasquez. With Vasquez worn down by the second-half, I expect Memphis to roll (despite their first-round difficulties against CS Northridge).

9 Texas A&M vs. 1 Connecticut [3:35 ET]
The Pick: Connecticut
-A&M actually has the length to contend with the Huskies. The bruising style of Chinemelu Elongu could cause problems for Hasheem Thabeet. Ultimately, however, the Aggies' lack of a dynamic scorer will be their undoing.

5 Purdue vs. 4 Washington [5:40 ET]
The Pick: Washington
-Two very evenly matched opponents. If both teams play their best, Purdue wins. But Washington is more consistent and gets the nod.

8 LSU vs. 1 North Carolina [5:45 ET]
The Pick: North Carolina
-This one has the potential to be very close. And that's with a healthy Ty Lawson. With Lawson out (or at least hobbled), an upset is by no means out of the question. Still, I expect the Heels' stars to will their team to victory.

10 Michigan vs. 2 Oklahoma [5:50 ET]
The Pick: Oklahoma
-Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims have a chance against Blake Griffin and Willie Warren. But the Wolverines' uninspiring supporting cast simply can't match the production of Austin Johnson, Tony Crocker, Taylor Griffin, and Juan Pattillo.

12 Western Kentucky vs. 4 Gonzaga [8:10 ET]
The Pick: Gonzaga
-Western Kentucky has a great shot at making it two Sweet 16s in a row. Gonzaga looked vulnerable against Akron, and no one outscraps the Hilltoppers (especially the sometimes lackadaisical Zags). In the end, I give Mark Few's squad the edge, but it's a slight one. I just think the post tandem of Josh Heytvelt and Austin Daye is going to cause all sorts of problems for the under-sized Toppers. I'm looking forward to the Jeremy Pargo versus Orlando Mendez-Valdez matchup at the point. Two of the nation's best at dictating the flow of the action.

7 Texas vs. 2 Duke [8:15 ET]
The Pick: Duke
-Texas definitely has the horses to pull this one off. However, Duke has played well as of late, and Texas is maddeningly inconsistent. Duke gets the nod, but, if Damion James rises to the occasion and outplays Gerald Henderson, the Longhorns could prevail.

March Madness: Round of 64 (Day 2)

Day One of March Madness is in the books. I went 14-2 for the opener and even called the one true upset of the day -- Western Kentucky over Illinois. (Go Hilltoppers! I can't get enough of their baby-devouring blob of a mascot.) Then again, so did everyone else. Not that impressive overall, considering the favorites held serve for the most part. The misses? I had California over Maryland, but the undeserving Terps ousted Mike Montgomery's squad. Didn't really see that one coming. Have to wonder what the Pac-10 has in store for tomorrow. Day One was not impressive with Cal getting sent home and UCLA squeaking past VCU. Washington did look good against Mississippi State. The one that hurt, though, was Clemson's loss to Michigan. I didn't even have Michigan in my Field of 65, and they beat a team that I thought would be playing in the Elite Eight. Ouch. For the record, this is the second year in a row Oliver Purnell's Tigers have burned me. I had them in the Elite Eight last year as well, only to see 12 seed Villanova send Clemson packing in the first round. Oh well, on to Day Two.

14 Stephen F. Austin vs. 3 Syracuse [12:15 ET]
The Pick: Syracuse
-Syracuse played a lot of basketball in the Big East tourney, but Jim Boeheim's squad has good depth – especially in the frontcourt. Stephen F. Austin is simply outmanned.

9 Tennessee vs. 8 Oklahoma State [12:25 ET]
The Pick: Tennessee
-This one should be fun to watch. Oklahoma State typically has five players 6-6 or shorter on the floor, and Tennessee's players all play like their 6-6 or shorter. These teams are going to run, and I love the James Anderson-Tyler Smith matchup. Expect the Vols' depth to be the difference.

11 Utah State vs. 6 Marquette [12:30 ET]
The Pick: Marquette
-I really like Utah State – just not against Marquette. Even without Dominic James, the Golden Eagles have enough to get into the Round of 32.

14 North Dakota State vs. 3 Kansas [12:30 ET]
The Pick: Kansas
-I like the Jayhawks in a close one. Sure, Ben Woodside tore up the Summit League, but expect Sherron Collins to take NDSU's star to the woodshed.

11 Temple vs. 6 Arizona State [2:45 ET]
The Pick: Temple
-James Harden is incredible, but his supporting cast has disappeared as of late. Dionte Christmas' supporting cast, on the other hand, looks like it's rounding into form.

16 ETSU vs. 1 Pittsburgh [2:55 ET]
The Pick: Pittsburgh
-ETSU is a talented 16 seed, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them hang around for a bit. Ultimately, however, Pitt's bruising style will overwhelm the Atlantic Sun champs.

14 Cornell vs. 3 Missouri [3:00 ET]
The Pick: Missouri
-Cornell should have received a 16 seed, but they still received a nightmare matchup against Mizzou's 40 minutes of hell defense. This one could be fun to watch in terms of pure comedic value.

11 Dayton vs. 6 West Virginia [3:00 ET]
The Pick: West Virginia
-I like Dayton's talent, but I question the Flyers' collective basketball IQ. Expect Bob Huggins to have his Mountaineers prepared to take advantage of Dayton's mental lapses.

16 Morehead State vs. 1 Louisville [7:10 ET]
The Pick: Louisville
-The Cards will prevail, but this isn't the ideal matchup for the number one overall number one seed. You never want to play an in-state rival in the tourney, even if you beat them by 38 earlier in the season.

12 Arizona vs. 5 Utah [7:10 ET]
The Pick: Utah
-Jordan Hill is virtually unguardable on the college level, but Utah has the antecdote in Big Luke Nevill (7-2 265). An upset is possible but not likely.

10 USC vs. 7 Boston College [7:20 ET]
The Pick: USC
-Al Skinner has done a remarkable job getting a mediocre team into the tourney out of a deep ACC. Unfortunately for Boston College fans, however, USC is on a roll, and, unless they self-destruct, should prevail. However, if Rakim Sanders gets off, the Eagles will move on to the second round.

13 Portland State vs. 4 Xavier [7:25 ET]
The Pick: Xavier
-I've got XU in this one, but Portland State has a good chance of pulling off the upset here. The Musketeers have been extremely inconsistent down the stretch. Still, I don't think Portland State has an answer for Derrick Brown.

9 Siena vs. 8 Ohio State [9:40 ET]
The Pick: Siena
-Siena knocked off Duke last year, and the Buckeyes' are in the Saints' crosshairs heading into Friday's matchup. Ohio State has more individual talent, but Siena is greater than the sum of its parts.

13 Cleveland State vs. 4 Wake Forest [9:40 ET]
The Pick: Wake Forest
-Cleveland State could be an upset pick in another matchup. Alas, they drew the Demon Deacons and their roster of NBA prospects. James Johnson, Wake's 6-9 sophomore power forward, has some Chris Webber in his game. Watching him handle the rock is a thing of beauty.

15 Robert Morris vs. 2 Michigan State [9:50 ET]
The Pick: Michigan State
-Robert Morris could give the Spartans trouble. Still, I like Izzo's squad to pull away in the second half of a game that will have State fans on edge.

12 Wisconsin vs. 5 Florida State [9:55 ET]
The Pick: Florida State
-This was the closest call of the first round for me. Wisconsin's methodical half-court set is a nightmare in terms of tourney preparation for non-Big Ten teams. Still, the Seminoles are too long and too athletic for the plodding Badgers. Even if Wisconsin stops up the Florida State attack, expect Toney Douglas to create his own scoring opportunities. Bo Ryan may need to insert a box-in-one for this one.

Quick Notes/Updates

1. I almost cursed Purdue. The coughed up a 12 point lead at the half, and Northern Iowa kept it close the rest of the game. Purdue finally pulled away with a pair of cluth free throws from my dog, Chris Kramer. Purdue played great defense, Northern Iowa just hit some well-guarded threes.
   
2. Mississippi State is off to a rough start against Washington. Jarvis Varnado picked up a second foul early in the first half and Washington has been pounding it inside ever since. State's guards continue to take bad shots and are having trouble against Washington's built-like-a-cornerback guards.
3. UNC and UCONN both equally impressive in first round wins.
   
4. Maryland wins against California in an incredibly annoying way. They still don't prove they belong in the tournament because Cal was falling apart at the end of the season anyway.
   
5. Memphis escaped a close game with Cal-State Fullerton. Memphis showed they were not deserving of a one seed, and will have trouble returning to the Final Four.

March Madness: Round of 64 (Day 1)

9 Butler vs. 8 LSU [12:20 ET]
The Pick: LSU
-LSU should have received a lower seed and will takes its frustration out on an inexperienced Butler squad. Chris Johnson's defense may be the x-factor in this one. Butler has no one that can match his athleticism in the paint.

15 CS Northridge vs. 2 Memphis [12:25 ET]
The Pick: Memphis
-The Matadors should have been a 16 seed. Calipari's Tigers roll in this one-sided affair.

9 Texas A&M vs. 8 BYU [12:30 ET]
The Pick: Texas A&M
-A&M's frontline of Josh Carter, Bryan Davis, and Chinemelu Elongu are too long, too athletic, and too physical for the Cougars. Look for Elongu to rip Lee Cummard's arms off at about the eleven-minute mark in the second half.

12 Northern Iowa vs. 5 Purdue [2:30 ET]
The Pick: Purdue
-Purdue played well in the Big Ten tourney but had an inconsistent season. Expect this one to be close in the first-half. An upset is certainly possible here.

16 Radford vs. 1 North Carolina [2:50 ET]
The Pick: North Carolina
-Ty Lawson's injured toe actually makes this an interesting 1-16 game. And I'm being serious. Plus, I'm looking forward to the matchup between Psycho T and The Kurgan.

10 Maryland vs. 7 California [2:55 ET]
The Pick: California
-With their 7-9 conference record, it's a joke that the Terps even got a bid (let alone a 10 seed). Cal has excellent talent at the 1-4 spots, and that will be enough to get past Greivis Vasquez and company.

16 Chattanooga vs. 1 Connecticut [3:00 ET]
The Pick: Connecticut
-Still trying to figure out how Chattanooga won the Southern Conference tourney. College of Charleston with former Georgia Tech head coach Bobby Cremins at the helm or Davidson with March's favorite son, Stephen Curry, would have made the madness more interesting. Huskies win in a blowout.

13 Mississippi State vs. 4 Washington [5:00 ET]
The Pick: Washington
-Mississippi State is a trendy pick in this one. And while it's true that the Bulldogs' 13 seed is far too high, I wonder if the people picking against Washington have even seen Lorenzo Romar's squad play a full game. Jarvis Varnado doesn't like physical contact, and Jon Brockman loves it. I like the Huskies in this one, but, if the Bulldogs are hitting from behind the arc, an upset is possible.

10 Minnesota vs. 7 Texas [7:10 ET]
The Pick: Texas
-Minnesota simply doesn't have the athletes to match up with the Longhorns. It will be interesting to see how Tubby plays this one, as Rick Barnes' squad is more athletic at 4 of 5 positions.

10 Michigan vs. 7 Clemson [7:10 ET]
The Pick: Clemson
-Michigan's two-man show of Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims is no match for Clemson's get-everyone-involved approach. I look forward to seeing how Oliver Purnell attacks John Beilein's 1-3-1 defense.

14 American U vs. 3 Villanova [7:20 ET]
The Pick: Villanova
-Yes, this is pretty much a home game for the Wildcats, but this one has the potential to be close. The Eagles (yes, that's right, the American Eagles) loss to Tennessee in the first round last year by 15 and won't be shell-shocked by the bright lights of March Madness.

13 Akron vs. 4 Gonzaga [7:25 ET]
The Pick: Gonzaga
-Gonzaga simply has too much talent for the Zips. While Akron has a balanced scoring attack (5 players average between 8 and 12 points per game), I don't think they have anyone capable of the huge performance they will need to get past Mark Few's squad.

15 Binghamton vs. 2 Duke [9:40 ET]
The Pick: Duke
-I know it has become quite popular to write off the Blue Devils in March, but this really could be a competitive game. The “renegade” Binghamton Bearcats have been raked over the coals by the national media for a variety of offenses (a current player was busted for stealing condoms, an ex-player fled to Serbia after allegedly beating a student into a coma, etc.), and they're going to be playing to prove all of their detractors wrong. I ultimately think the Blue Devils win by double-digits, but expect Tony Kornheiser U to play with Coach K's Dukies for a half.

15 Morgan State vs. 2 Oklahoma [9:40 ET]
The Pick: Oklahoma
-Morgan State has a pretty decent squad, but they simply have no answer for Blake Griffin. Jeff Capel would be wise to get his bench some tourney reps.

11 VCU vs. 6 UCLA [9:50 ET]
The Pick: UCLA
-VCU is the favorite upset pick of the college basketball experts. Well, I don't buy it. Eric Maynor is a fantastic point guard and Larry Sanders does have extraordinarily long arms. By the way, what's the over/under on the number of times Sanders' 17-foot wingspan is referenced on Thursday night? Anyway, UCLA is just too experienced for Anthony Grant's team, having been to the Final Four the last three years.

12 Western Kentucky vs. 5 Illinois [9:55 ET]
The Pick: Western Kentucky
-Finally an upset. I'm a regular Barack Obama with all this front-running. The loss of Chester Frazier dooms Bruce Weber and his Fighting Illini. Look for Sun Belt Player of the Year Orlando Mendez-Valdez and his Hilltoppers to pull off a first-round upset for the second consecutive year. If the Hilltoppers pull of the upset, does that mean that WKU has officially taken the University of Kentucky's position as the second most dominant program in the Bluegrass state?

The Quest

My beloved (minus Michael Porter) Kentucky Wildcats are giving up 20 point leads and possession of the basketball in the N(o one cares) I(ncredibly sad) T(ournament) for underachievers. I thought long and hard about not filling out a bracket and even skipping the majority of the tournament games, as well. As those of you who join my in a bracket pool have learned, I changed my mind.

In order to enjoy the best sports season of the year, I would be forced to find a new team worth rooting for in March. It will be a team with a limited purpose, purely for Marches when Kentucky isn't relevant nationally. The hope is for it to be a one time pairing.

I made some conservative picks. Ultimately, I like Louisville, Pitt, and UNC to all make the Final Four. The only one seed I don't particularly like is the Dyson-less, money-hoarding UCONN Huskies. Thabeet doesn't get my blood moving. UCONN will ultimately rely on Adrien, Robinson, Price, and Walker. A good, but not great group. To add some slight intrigue in the West, I'm not a fan of Memphis, either. For the record, I'm never a fan of any team that boasts a road win against Tulsa as their best conference win. While filling, it appeared to me that the Wild West would be the region I would find the team deserving of my March support.

At this point, I'm looking at Mizzou, Washington, and Purdue as possible sleepers emerging from the West. Lorenzo Romar, Mike Anderson, and Matt Painter are all three respectable coaches who are making a case for major openings at the conclusion of the season. The difference is Painter is a Purdue alum, and I don't see him leaving unless it's for a big-time program with the ability to pay upwards of 2 to 3 million a year. Painter gets the advantage.

Mizzou plays at a blinding pace. Washington has speed in Isaiah Thomas, but ultimately tends to play in a half court type game to utilize Brockman. Purdue is from the Big Ten. Mizzou gets the nod in style of play.

I currently live an hour from Mizzou's campus. Purdue is a couple hours from my hometown. I think Washington is in a different country. Purdue gets the nod because I have no allegiance surrounding my current address.

Sidebar: I wanted the analysis of why I chose the new team to be more in-depth but I'm pressed for time and the tournament just started. Sorry, Chris.

After much analysis, debate, and wet-dreaming I narrowed it down to one creamy team:
My team for the tournament, Chris, is

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PURDUE!

Let me explain.

Sidebar: As I'm writing this, Purdue is up 12 on Northern Iowa. It could be more, but Hummel is shooting left-handed.

I like Matt Painter a lot. I think he is one hell of a coach. They have some young talent that should be there for the next two years, just in case I have to come running back next March. E'Twaun Moore and Robbie Hummel are both sophomores who are extremely well-rounded players. Hummel leads the team in rebounding from the small forward position. Chris Kramer is a stud that can lock up almost anyone in the country. He is hard-nosed, played with a face-mask, and dishes out 2.5 assists a game. JaJuan Johnson is really coming along nicely towards the end of the year. He's developed nice hands and a nice 12 foot jumper that kills the weak spot in zones. Nemanja Calasan can get hot from behind the arc and provides offensive spark off the bench. As a whole, Purdue plays great team defense, holding opponents under 60 points a game. I realize they are playing in the offensively-challenged Big Ten, but it's still an accomplishment.

I've got them in the Final Four, knocking out UCONN and Memphis along the way. If they make it, my bracket sets up nicely. I see them having trouble with teams that press as well as Louisville, and accordingly, have them being knocked out by UofL. However, Purdue is poised to make some noise in this tournament and have a group of guys, a coach, and a program that should be easy to get behind. Let's go Boilermakers! I pray I'm not a curse.

Upsets To Stay Away From

Arizona over Utah - Generally, it's not a great idea to pick the last team to receive an at-large bid and is in the midst of an absolutely horrible stretch, winning one of six. They have three talented scores in Budinger, Hill, and Wise, but nothing else. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if these were the only three guys who played. It would explain quite a bit. Utah is senior laden team that guards really well.

Utah State over Marquette - Without Dominic James at point Marquette has won one of six. But take a look at the losses - UConn by 11, UofL by 4, Pitt by 15, Syracuse by 7 in overtime, and Villanova by one. They aren't the same team as they were in the middle of the season, but they should still be able to take care of business against Utah State. Look for Jerel McNeal to have a big time game. It will be his best opportunity.

Wisconson Buzzcuts over Florida State - The Buzzcuts, as Club Trillion founder Mark Titus refers to them, have not been a typical Bo Ryan team this year. Florida St. seems to be playing their best basketball of the season. Wow, that felt odd saying in March. Florida St. appears to be taking halfway decent shots and the medusa head of Toney Douglas and his comrades is a difficult task for any team to guard.

Minnesota over Texas - Quite possibly the two most antithetical teams in the tournament playing each other in the first round. Expect a Texas romp in this one. Minnesota has had trouble dealing with athletically superior teams all year. Minnesota struggles to find scoring, regardless of the opponent. Texas can only beat itself in this game.

The Contenders (11 of Them)

Tier 1

Louisville

Why They Can Win It All: One of the deepest (and healthiest) teams in America. Four Cardinals – Edgar Sosa, Jerry Smith, Andre McGee, and Preston Knowles – get significant run in the backcourt. Terrence Williams, Earl Clark, Samardo Samuels, and Terrence Jennings form a talented frontcourt rotation. And Rick Pitino isn't afraid to go deeper into bench if his top eight aren't producing. As the Cards' pressing defense is their biggest strength, this depth is integral to their success.

Why They Can't: While they have a pair of point forwards in T-Will and E5 (two of the most creative nicknames ever), the Cards' lack of a true point guard will be their ultimate demise. Sosa is a two-guard in a point guard's body, and McGee and Knowles are ineffective on the offensive end at best. History tells us that past champions have almost always featured a capable point guard that protects the ball and dictates pace. Oh, and the Cards also have trouble shooting free throws.

North Carolina

Why They Can Win It All: The Tar Heels are the most talented team in the country. Even with their injury woes, UNC is adequately deep and starts four All-American-type talents (Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green, and Tyler Hansbrough). Deon Thompson isn't too bad either. It will be hard for anyone to match Roy Williams' squad in terms of sheer firepower.

Why They Can't: Ty Lawson's toe and a lack of defensive intensity. Ol' Roy's squad can make a deep run without Lawson, but there's no way they win a championship without him. The Tar Heels are much better defenders than they are given credit for, but the lapses in concentration on the defensive end are worrisome. The tournament is not the time to suddenly develop the intestinal fortitude to play forty minutes of defense.

Pittsburgh

Why They Can Win It All: The Panthers are the most physical team in college basketball. They beat up their opponents with rough play in the post and lockdown defense on the perimeter. Every single member of Jamie Dixon's squad defends, and, with the exception of their recent loss to Providence, Pitt plays with purpose every night. They've been in tourney mode all season.

Why They Can't: When DeJuan Blair gets in foul trouble, this team really struggles. And with Pitt's physical style of play, there's a good chance Blair finds himself on the bench at some point. This may seem like digging for a reason to discount Pitt's chances, but Blair sets the tone for the Panthers and the team's identity is inextricably tied to his play. When Blair is out, this team looks lost.

Tier 2

Connecticut

Why They Can Win It All: Their frontline of Hasheem Thabeet, Jeff Adrien, and Stanley Robinson is second to none. Adrien is an absolute warrior. Robinson, the Huskies' 6-9 small forward is a matchup nightmare. And Thabeet is the most dominating force in college basketball. (Yes, even more dominating than Blake Griffin.) The tournament is all about quick turnaround in terms of preparation. And while everyone tweaks their defensive strategies to counter the opposition's offensive strengths, Thabeet requires opponents to change their offensive game plan – not an easy task this late in the season.

Why They Can't: The bench (or more accurately, the lack thereof). With Jerome Dyson's injury, the Huskies are limited to a seven-man rotation. I'm a firm believer that even an eight-man rotation is dangerously thin for a team trying to win six straight games in quick succession. Moreover, Dyson was the Huskies most dangerous perimeter scoring threat. Freshman Kemba Walker and senior Craig Austrie are going to have to increase their offensive output.

Michigan State

Why They Can Win It All: Rebounding and defense. It's become almost cliché to talk about the toughness of a Tom Izzo-coached team, but 08-09 Spartans fit the description. And while no one expects the champion to emerge from the Big Ten – a conference where the basketball is looking less and less like the game the rest of the country is playing – the Spartans, unlike their conference foes, actually have the firepower to light up the scoreboard.

Why They Can't: The Spartans lack a dynamic scorer capable of creating his own shot. Kalin Lucas is a facilitator, but he's not going to drop 20 on the opposition. Raymar Morgan has been disappointing and isn't that effective with the ball in his hands. Based on senior Goran Suton's numbers, his offensive development hit a ceiling during his junior campaign. And while Durrell Summers may eventually become that player for Tom Izzo, he's not nearly consistent enough to fill that void at this point in his career.

Oklahoma

Why They Can Win It All: Perhaps the country's most complete starting five. The Sooners' lineup features the best player in the country and arguably the top freshman. And, importantly, the two compliment one another. The attention Blake Griffin attracts in the post allows super-frosh Willie Warren to operate more freely on the perimeter. Austin Johnson, the Sooners' 6-4 senior point guard, is a crafty playmaker who excels at finding his teammates in scoring position without dominating the ball. Tyler Griffin is a banger and an excellent interior passer. And Tony Crocker shoots the three and wears a long-sleeved shirt under his jersey.

Why They Can't: A very inexperienced bench. Jeff Capel has done a decent job of patiently expanding his rotation, but it would be a stretch to call the Sooner reserves tournament-ready. Cade Davis is a solid contributer, but Juan Pattillo is the only impact player Capel can turn to in a pinch.

Wake Forest

Why They Can Win It All: No team has more upside than the Demon Deacons. NBA-caliber athletes litter Dino Guadio's roster. In fact, Jeff Teague, Al-Farouq Aminu, and James Johnson give Wake three lottery-caliber talents. L.D. Williams and Chas McFarland, while not as gifted as the headliners, also create matchup problems with their size and strength.

Why They Can't: It is highly unusual that a team that didn't even get invited to the dance one year leaves belle of the ball the next. Guadio's top three players are sophomores or younger, and that rarely equates to postseason success.

Tier 3

Clemson

Why They Can Win It All: Perhaps no squad in America epitomizes the concept of team more than the Clemson Tigers. These guys seem to genuinely enjoy playing with one another, and I don't think there's a destructive ego among them. Moreover, each Tiger has a clearly defined role. Power forward Trevor Booker is the first option on offense (not to mention one of the best defenders in the ACC). And I must say – it's refreshing to a see a team that voluntarily gets its big man touches on almost every possession. No arm-twisting. No barking from the sideline. No ill-advised threes while the post talent has his man pinned on the block. Rather, the Tigers look to the post like it's second nature. Swingman K.C. Rivers guards the opponent's best perimeter scorer and slashes to the hoop. Terrence Oglesby provides the long-range game. Raymond Sykes is the Tigers' hype man. He's active on the glass and cleans up his teammates' misfires. Demontez Stitt is the glue guy who does the dirty work.

Why They Can't: This team truly has reached its potential. Clemson is a good team but not a great one. They lack a dynamic scorer, and they don't have a point guard that can impose his will on the pace of the game. Just not enough talent to do much damage in March.

Duke

Why They Can Win It All: The Blue Devils are extremely talented and very deep at the 1-4 spots with Nolan Smith, Greg Paulus, Elliot Williams, Jon Scheyer, Gerald Henderson, and Kyle Singler. Equally effective in the half-court set or in transition, scoring is not a problem for these marksmen. And in terms of perimeter defense, Purdue may be their only competition. It would also be difficult to find a more intelligent group of basketball players. And while some of them are limited athletically, a Smith-Williams-Henderson-Singler lineup is going to hold its own against anyone.

Why They Can't: Absolutely no post presence. Singler lines up at the four, but he plays like a three. He's all finesse and angles. And while Singler can block the occasional shot, post scorers with size and explosion wreak havoc on Duke's vanilla frontline defenders. And on offense, Coach K has no one to pound the ball into when the shots aren't falling.

Memphis

Why They Can Win It All: It's time we stop doubting John Calipari's program and start realizing that Memphis puts high-quality product on the floor every year. The names may be different, but the results are the same. The nation's most talented freshman piloting a Memphis squad that is angling for a one seed. Sound familiar? And like Derrick Rose last year, Tyreke Evans is far from a one-man show. Senior Antonio Anderson and Robert Dozier are back after briefly flirting with turning pro after last year's runner-up finish. Shawn Taggart starts at the five, and he's actually more reliable and versatile on offense than his predecessor, Joey Dorsey. Doneal Mack may not be Chris Douglas-Roberts, but he's proven to be an instinctual scorer in his own right.

Why They Can't: Beating up on the wasteland that is Conference-USA basketball doesn't prepare a team for March Madness. Memphis may be confident, but most teams would be emboldened beating up on the Marshalls and Southern Misses of the world.

Villanova

Why They Can Win It All: Jay Wright has four guys capable of creating their own shot – combo guards Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher, wing Corey Stokes, and power forward Dante Cunningham. In terms of sheer offensive versatility, few teams can match Villanova. College basketball is a guard's game, and Villanova has three that can take over a game. Plus, their best player may be Cunningham, giving them a true post threat.

Why They Can't: Scoring has never been the problem for Jay Wright's teams, and, even though this year's version of Wildcats' guard-heavy lineup is better on the defensive end than in years past, it's still nowhere near national champion-caliber defense. Sure, the Big East is tough, but why would anyone expect a team that could finish no better than fourth in their own conference to win the National Championship?

The Bubble Picture

Here's my take on the bubble heading into Selection Sunday.

My Last 6 In:

Auburn
-Auburn went 10-6 in conference. Yes, it was a down year in the SEC. Still, are you really going to put 9-9 Big Ten teams in over a 10-6 SEC squad? My guess is that, yes, in fact, that is exactly what the Committee will do.

South Carolina
-The same analysis applies to South Carolina. Auburn may sneak in, but I think the Committee will leave the Gamecocks out.

Texas A&M
-A&M went 9-7 in the Big 12 and finished strong. The only reason I have them this far down is the Aggies' loss to lowly Texas Tech in the Big 12 tourney. I think A&M is a lock at this point.

Penn State
-Penn State deserves the nod over both Michigan and Minnesota based on the Nittany Lions' 10-8 conference record. While they split with both Michigan and Minnesota, PSU boasts wins over both Michigan State and Purdue. Plus, they swept Illinois.

San Diego State
-I believe there is a clear line of demarcation between Penn State and San Diego State. Penn State and above deserve to get in, and, if they don't, they have a right to be angry. From San Diego State and below, however, I can see the arguments for all sides. As for the Aztecs, they finished in fourth place in the Mountain West, though only one game out of a tie for first. They also beat UNLV three times and made it to their conference tourney championship game before falling to Utah by two. Steve Fisher of Fab Five fame may be dancing once again.

Saint Mary's
-SMC just gets my last at-large bid. While I'm not sure Patty Mills has fully recovered from his hand injury, the Gaels have put together a nice season. While SMC lost to conference rival Gonzaga three times, they have wins over Kansas State and fellow bubble-dwellers San Diego State and Providence.

*Note: If Mississippi State upsets Tennessee tomorrow, there will be one less at-large bid. In that case, Saint Mary's will be NIT-bound, and San Diego State will be headed to the Dance as my last at-large bid (despite the Aztecs head-to-head loss to the Gaels. However, I reserve the right to revisit the SMC versus SDSt debate prior to the Selection Show.

My First 7 Out:

Michigan
-Michigan has non-conference wins over both Duke and UCLA. While these feats are impressive, some perspective may be in order. Michigan had two shots at Duke, and won once. And the 08-09 version of UCLA is not as talented as Bruins squads in years past. Michigan did sweep Minnesota in Big Ten play and, so, will most likely get the nod over the Gophers if it comes down to those two. I just can't get past Michigan's .500 conference record (even in a deep Big Ten conference).

Minnesota
-I actually think Minnesota is a better team than Michigan and a number of the other bubble-dwellers. Unfortunately, I think the Gophers' profile comes up just short of an at-large bid. With the exception of their win over Louisville, their non-conference resume is pretty empty. They played well in conference but got swept by Michigan and finished 9-9. I won't be shocked if they get in, but they don't have much to be upset about if they get left out.

Providence
-Before the season started, I'm pretty sure no one thought it possible that a team could finish 10-8 in Big East play and not make the tourney. Well, that's what we're looking at with the Friars. Providence's non-conference schedule was soft and unimpressive. They have wins over Pitt and Syracuse (and they swept Cincy), but their conference record was inflated by wins over the Big East's least talented teams.

New Mexico
-Steve Alford's club finished in a three-way tie for the Mountain West regular season title. Unfortunately for the Lobos, they have some bad non-conference losses and got knocked out of their conference tourney by Wyoming.

Arizona
-I actually won't be too upset if the Wildcats get a bid. The Wildcats have a nice profile in terms of non-conference wins (San Diego State, Gonzaga, and Kansas), but their conference play was lackluster (9-9 in an average Pac-10). With USC giving the Pac-10 a fifth representative, Arizona's bubble may have burst.

Florida
-The Gators have a ton of talent, and they finished with a winning record in conference play. However, there's no way the SEC gets five bids (and that's even if Mississippi State wins tomorrow and the conference deserves five bids), and Florida is clearly fifth in terms of SEC pecking order at this point.

Creighton
-Yes, Creighton finished the season winning 11 of their last 12, but that one loss really gets me -- a 73-49 defeat at the hands of Illinois State in the Missouri Valley tourney. Plus, with the exception of a win over Dayton, the Bluejays don't have much in terms of non-conference resume.

*Note: The above teams are really the only ones that I believe deserve serious consideration.

Mistake the Selection Committee is Destined to Make:

Maryland
-If Maryland gets in, something is seriously wrong. The Terps finished 7-9 in conference play. I have trouble imagining a scenario where a team that finishes below .500 in conference play deserves to play for the national championship. Gary Williams' squad has non-conference wins over Michigan and Michigan State, but they also lost to Morgan State, Gonzaga by 22, and Georgetown by 27. In ACC play, the Terps beat UNC in February and Wake during the conference tourney. They closed out their regular season losing to Virginia. Against the ACC's top six teams (the one's with winning records in conference play), the Terps are 2-8 (and that's including their conference tourney win over Wake). This is not a tournament team. It blows my mind that they are even getting consideration. That being said, expect the Selection Committee to give Maryland an at-large bid.