Big Ten in the NBA

Think you may want to draft Jared Sullinger's big ole ass?  Like the cut of Meyers Leonard's jib?  I decided to use historical indicators to project the NBA potential for players coming out of the Big Ten.  For several years, the Big Ten has been criticized greatly for a slower, plodding style that can't match up to more athletic and explosive teams from other conferences...in football.  In basketball, however, the Big Ten consistently churns out excellent, if not at least overachieving, tournament performances from its members.  Have its top basketball players moved on to become noteworthy NBA players?  Let's take a look at the last ten years of first round picks from the NBA:

2002
#11 - Jared Jeffries
#25 - Frank Williams

2003
#24 - Brian Cook

2004
#5 - Devin Harris

2005
#3 - Deron Williams
#24 - Luther Head

2006
#25 - Shannon Brown
#28 - Maurice Ager

2007
#1 - Greg Oden
#4 - Mike Conley
#21 - Daequan Cook
#29 - Alando Tucker

2008
#7 - Eric Gordon
#23 - Kosta Koufos
#29 - D.J. White

2009
#24 - B.J. Mullens

2010
#2 - Evan Turner

2011
#25 - JaJuan Johnson

I thought this was a surprising case study.  Out of eighteen first round picks over ten years, only four players have become above average starting caliber players:  Eric Gordon, Mike Conley, Deron Williams, and Devin Harris.  In fairness, Evan Turner has shown promise, but only has two seasons under his belt, and the Greg Oden tragedy is not really his fault.   Nonetheless, it's hard to believe that a conference as strong as the Big Ten has only produced four starting-caliber first round picks over the last decade.

This trend may be completely coincidental, and I don't have any strong theories on why we haven't seen more NBA success out of this conference.  I suppose a case could be made that the Big Ten, by and large, lacks a sufficient number of athletes to provide NBA-caliber matchups for the conference's elite players.  For example, a few more agile, 6'11" shot blockers could have given a better idea of whether Koufos, D.J. White, Mullens, or Sullinger were/are likely to be able to score close to the basket in the NBA.  This list wouldn't change the way I feel about Draymond Green, because any team drafting him shouldn't expect him to be a long-term starter.  However, there are enough concerns about Leonard and Sullinger that this list would give me a little extra pause in drafting them.