Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Notes: Duke at North Carolina


1. Wow. Just wow. What a finish. What a game. Every now and then the Duke-UNC rivalry lives up to its considerable hype. Tonight we witnessed one of those games. I had written Duke off after the Tar Heels built up a 13-point second half lead. Down 10 with 2 and a half minutes left, a comeback seemed all but impossible. Rivers' 3 at the buzzer gave new life to a Blue Devils squad that has looked like a solid team with little chance of competing against the Kentuckys and Ohio States of the world come March. And UNC's collapse raises all sorts of questions about a team that seemed to have righted itself after its embarrassing 33-point loss to Florida State.

2. Love him or hate him, Austin Rivers is going to be a special player at the college level (assuming he sticks around for another year). Sure, he's a gunner, and it's hard to argue that he makes those around him better. He's a talented scorer who doesn't bring much else to the table at this early stage of his career. That being said, he's leading the 9th ranked Blue Devils in scoring as a freshman and just put 29 on the rival Tar Heels. There aren't many players in the country who could have done what he did tonight.

3. People have been saying it all year, but it's worth mentioning again after tonight's collapse - the Tar Heels lack the killer instinct possessed by teams that win championships. The talent and skill are there. I'm just not sure Roy Williams' squad has the mentality needed by a team that is going to win 6 straight games in March and April.

4. It should be mentioned that Carolina's top 4 players all had good individual games tonight. Harrison Barnes finished with 25 points with most of those coming in the second half. Tyler Zeller had as good a first half as anyone has had in the country this year and finished with 23 points and 11 boards. John Henson tallied 12 and 17. And Kendall Marshall finished with 14 points and 8 assists. (I thought Marshall did a really good job of being a threat to score tonight.)

5. Stat of the night - UNC hit one 3-pointer as compared to the 14 made by the Blue Devils. At some point, Roy Williams has to make adjustments. Duke made a number of difficult shots, but, if UNC decides to make taking away the 3-pointer a priority, I think the Tar Heels win that game.

6. Losing Dexter Strickland to injury for the rest of the season certainly hurts UNC's depth, especially at the point guard position where Strickland served as Marshall's backup. And while I'm not suggesting the injury has helped the Tar Heels, it has provided an opportunity for sophomore wing Reggie Bullock. Bullock should have been starting at the two spot the entire year. He's UNC's best perimeter defender and adds length to an already extremely long starting five.

7. Call me crazy, but, despite Carolina's failures against Florida State and now Duke, I still think this team has a chance to win the National Championship. They wouldn't be my pick right now, but I'm not writing them off, either.

8. Oh, and one more thing, we all know the popular narrative this season about the Tar Heels has been that they don't play defense. As recently as two weeks ago, in my midseason awards post, I made a crack about how much more awful UNC's defense would be without John Henson. Upon further examination, I'm not so sure I was being totally fair (or particularly accurate for that matter). I'm not saying the Heels are stalwarts on the defensive end, but an examination of the numbers reveals that this team actually plays pretty good defense. Statistical guru Ken Pomeroy currently has Carolina rated as the nation's 14th best defense. I should also note that the Heels' vaunted offense is rated 17th in the country according to Pomeroy's system. No ranking system is without its flaws, but I find Pomeroy's system to be both an accurate evaluator of a team's play and a reliable predictor of a team's success. I'm not suggesting that UNC is actually a great defensive team or that they put forth maximum effort on that side of the ball. In fact, I continue to believe that, given the Heels' personnel, they could be a much better defensive team. I'm simply saying that the narrative we've all come to believe concerning UNC's supposed ineptitude on the defensive end doesn't quite ring true.

1 comment:

  1. Did you see the warm-ups that New Orleans wore during 80s night? Those were great...I hope they make your uniform ranking list.

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