The following projections represent not who the NBA teams will likely pick but, rather, who they should select. It takes into account seniors and those underclassmen and international players that declared for the NBA Draft prior to the April 26 early entrant deadline. Feel free to compare these projections with my January draft prospectus and the pre-April 26 deadline mock drafts prepared by Commodore Finnegan and myself, which took into account all draft-eligible players, regardless of intent to enter the draft.
1 Kings: Blake Griffin, Oklahoma
Soph 6-10 240 PF
An explosive physical specimen. I can't imagine a scenario in which he doesn't go first.
2 Wizards: Ricky Rubio, International
N/A 6-3 180 PG
If Washington ever wants to contend, they need to find a real point guard. I enjoy Gilbert Arenas' antics as much as the next guy, but I don't think he's going to lead a team deep into the playoffs.
3 Clippers: Jordan Hill, Arizona
Jr 6-9 235 PF
With Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman at the five, the Clippers can afford to pass on Hasheem Thabeet. The scary thing about Hill is that he has room for development on both ends of the floor.
4 Thunder: Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut
Jr 7-3 260 C
I'm not convinced Thabeet is the next Dikembe Mutombo. Still, he's a game-changer on the defensive end and would be an excellent addition to a franchise that is assembling a roster that could be a force in the near future.
5 Timberwolves: James Harden, Arizona State
Soph 6-4 220 OG
Minnesota needs a point guard, but they have three first-round picks, so there's no rush. Moreover, Harden would give Kevin McHale the go-to perimeter scorer he so desperately needs.
6 Grizzlies: Ty Lawson, North Carolina
Jr 6-0 195 PG
Memphis needs a power forward, but all of the fours that are worthy of a top-6 selection are staying in school. Tyler Hansbrough may be the best option, but a Psycho T/Marc Gasol post tandem is pretty underwhelming in terms of athleticism.
7 Warriors: Tyreke Evans, Memphis
Fr 6-6 220 OG
Still trying to figure out whether Evans will be a one or two in the Association. Playing within the nonexistent confines of Nellie's position-less anarchy (shout out to freedarko) would all but negate that dilemma.
8 Knicks: Patrick Mills, Saint Mary's
Soph 5-11 180 PG
Has proven himself playing for the Australian national team on the international circuit. While he needs to improve his outside shooting, I really like Mills in Mike D'Antoni's system.
9 Raptors: DeMar DeRozan, USC
Fr 6-6 210 OG
The Raptors lack athleticism in the backcourt, and DeRozan has athleticism to spare. Still a project, but his play towards the end of the season got my attention.
10 Bucks: Jeff Teague, Wake Forest
Soph 6-2 175 PG
Teague's ability to get to the basket would complement Michael Redd's long-range game. Think Jason Terry with point guard skills.
11 Nets: James Johnson, Wake Forest
Soph 6-8 235 PF
The Nets need a four man to pair with Brook “The Forbidden Fruit” Lopez. While Johnson may end up playing a lot of three, he has an NBA-ready body to throw around in the post.
12 Bobcats: Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina
Sr 6-8 245 PF
I must admit that I'm a little annoyed by the whole Chapel Hill-to-Charlotte pipeline, but this one just makes sense. Charlotte needs quality post players, and Psychotic Tyler is going to be productive.
13 Pacers: Gerald Henderson, Duke
Jr 6-4 210 OG
Henderson is both a lockdown defender and, at times, an explosive scoring threat. The Pacers need both.
14 Suns: Stephen Curry, Davidson
Jr 6-3 180 PG
An apprenticeship under Steve Nash is just what the doctor ordered for Curry. I'm not convinced he'll ever be much of a point guard, but, at the very least, he'll provide instant offense off the bench.
15 Pistons: Eric Maynor, VCU
Sr 6-3 180 PG
It's a toss-up between Maynor and Jonny Flynn at the 15 spot. Flynn's fiery, hard-as-nails approach would be a great fit in the Motor City, but Maynor's heady play and sweet stroke give him an ever-so-slight edge.
16 Bulls: DeJuan Blair, Pittsburgh
Soph 6-6 280 PF
Blair may not have ideal size to play the four, but his 7-3 wingspan should allay any fears that he won't be able to defend at the next level. The wide-bodied Pitt product has his detractors, but he's going to add wins to whatever team selects him.
17 76ers: Jonny Flynn, Syracuse
Soph 6-0 185 PG
Flynn's an excellent defender and floor general, but his decision-making needs to improve. I like the idea of him learning at the feet of Andre Miller for a couple years before taking over the Sixers' uptempo attack.
18 Timberwolves: Brandon Jennings, International
N/A 6-1 170 PG
I'm not all that high on Jennings, but Minnesota's best option at point guard at the moment is Sebastian Telfair. Needless to say, the Wolves could use Jennings, a springy athlete with playmaking skills.
19 Hawks: Sam Young, Pittsburgh
Sr 6-6 220 OG
Young would provide Atlanta with scoring punch off the bench. The Hawks needs a distributor, so they would likely pick up Jonny Flynn or Brandon Jennings if either should fall this far.
20 Jazz: Patrick Patterson, Kentucky
Soph 6-8 235 PF
With the impending departure of Carlos Boozer, Patterson would be a more than capable backup to Paul Millsap. Taking into consideration the fact that fellow power forwards Ed Davis, Greg Monroe, and Craig Brackins have decided to head back to school, Patterson may not be available this late in the first round.
21 Hornets: Terrence Williams, Louisville
Sr 6-6 220 OG
Imagine all the turnovers a Chris Paul-Terrence Williams backcourt would create. Moreover, New Orleans could use some bounce at the two spot, and T-Will is a top-shelf athlete.
22 Mavericks: Jodie Meeks, Kentucky
Jr 6-4 210 OG
This may be a little high for the Kentucky junior, but Meeks is the draft's best shooter this side of Stephen Curry. Derrick Brown is also a possibility here.
23 Kings: Toney Douglas, Florida State
Sr 6-2 195 PG
Douglas isn't getting much love from the draft boards, but he's a deadly scorer who can defend. If Sacramento has doubts about Douglas' playmaking abilities, Jrue Holiday is an option.
24 Trailblazers: Austin Daye, Gonzaga
Soph 6-10 200 SF
The rail-thin Daye is a few years away from contributing, but the Blazers have a loaded roster and can afford to stash him at the end of their bench for a spell. I also like Jerel McNeal for Portland.
25 Thunder: Chase Budinger, Arizona
Jr 6-7 220 OG
Budinger's a great athlete with polished offensive skills. Plus, he's got a great build to play the two at the next level and possesses an excellent shooting touch.
26 Bulls: Earl Clark, Louisville
Jr 6-10 230 OG
Clark is a favorite of draft boards, but I'm not sold on the Louisville junior. He has a decent outside shot, but he needs a great one if he's going to hang around on the perimeter like he thinks he's the next Rashard Lewis.
27: Grizzlies: Derrick Brown, Xavier
Jr 6-8 225 SF
Brown has a great body and a developing game. He has tremendous potential but needs to play with more conviction.
28 Timberwolves: B.J. Mullens, Ohio State
Fr 7-0 275 C
Mullens had a disappointing freshman season, but he's a seven-footer with athleticism. Plus, Minnesota has three first-round picks, so it makes sense to take a flyer on Mullens.
29 Lakers: DaJuan Summers, Georgetown
Jr 6-8 225 SF
Summers has a mature offensive game and can score in a variety of ways. Unfortunately, he appears disinterested on the defensive end and on the glass.
30 Cavaliers: Luke Harangody, Notre Dame
Jr 6-7 245 PF
With Lebron being a de facto second power forward when he's in the game, the Cavs' can afford to play the Gody alongside King James. Luke has a developing outside shot, and I think he can play some three at the next level as well.
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You (especially) and RBP lost some credibility by putting "Tyler Hansborough" and "lottery" in the same sentence. Have you lost your f'ing mind? I hope this doesn't reflect the predictions of all the mariners. I'm sure Larry Brown would rather pass a mediocre practice player who gets his nuts off from "Texas Style" ping pong.
ReplyDeleteOuch. While I realize projecting Psycho T as a lottery pick is frowned upon within the mock draft community, I stand by my post. I truly believe Hansbrough will be a very solid contributor in the Association. The main knock against him appears to be that he lacks athleticism. While not overly athletic (see my analysis of the Grizzlies pick at number 6), I think he'll be just fine. The guy has thrown down an in-game, two-handed 360. (I bring up the 360 not so much as evidence of his athleticism but because you should watch the stiff awkwardness of it on YouTube.) More importantly, he's got a nice little jumper and an engine that never stops. Yes, he's white and goofy (which makes him a favorite target of bloggers all over the interweb), but I like his game. I don't think it's that ridiculous for me to project him at the 12th pick in a draft that lacks star power, especially considering he holds the all-time scoring record at both North Carolina and in the ACC.
ReplyDeleteJrue Holiday isn't in here you tard. Hes a lottery pick.
ReplyDeleteEh, I won't kill you for the Hansburough thing because I think at least one GM will fall in love, but I have to question you having the Suns taking Steph Curry. Unless you think they will trade J-Rich and Leandro Barbosa (which there has been no word of yet) this trade makes no sense. I could see them taking Williams, Maynor, or Flynn before him.
ReplyDeleteAs to my alleged retardation, it's not like I forgot about Holiday. As I noted, Sacramento should give him a look at 23. I could also see him going to Portland at 24 or the Lakers at 29. I like Holiday, and he looks like he could be a lockdown defender. However, I don't think he's a lottery pick. I know he had a rough go of it at UCLA, because he had to play the two (due to the presence of Darren Collison), but he looked lost far too often for my taste. I think he should have put in another year at the college level.
ReplyDeleteMy Curry-to-Phoenix projection assumes the Suns would try to develop him at the point. I'm not in love with Curry and really don't think he has the physical tools to play the two-guard in the Association. If the Suns determine Curry is ill-suited to play the one, then I agree with you that Eric Maynor or Jonny Flynn would make sense.
ReplyDeleteAlso, it seems a little odd you have Mullens and Clark so low. IMO (and I'm not wrong much) Clark will be a solid player at the next level, and Mullens has the potential to make someone bite. The same goes with Holiday. I think all of those guys are top 20, or at least top 25. Clark could even go in the lottery.
ReplyDeleteWith respect to Holiday's lottery chances, I would note that neither NBA DraftExpress nor NBADraft.net have Holiday in the lottery. Draft Exprsss has Holiday going 20th, and Draft.net has him going 27th. By way of full disclosure, I should note that ESPN's Chad Ford is pretty high on Holiday, ranking him as the draft's 13th best prospect.
ReplyDeleteI am high on Holiday's NBA potential, but in no way do i see him as a lottery pick. I could see him going as high as 17, but no lower than 1st round.
ReplyDeletehere is your griffin not going #1 scenario
ReplyDeletethe kings relize their point guards are beno and bobby Mc old guy jackson and their bigs are young and full of upside thus if sac gets #1 rubio should go plus the kings over international talent
As to Clark and Mullens, I see your points. As a UofL fan, I may a little hard on Clark. However, I think his weaknesses are pretty glaring -- lack of focus, in love with hanging around the perimeter, and incredibly turnover-prone. That being said, I would be surprised if he's not a top-16 pick. This post is my take on who should be taken and not who will be taken. As for Mullens, I actually like the guy, and I wouldn't be shocked at all if he goes much earlier. I'm just not convinced that he's going to contribute anytime soon.
ReplyDeleteStill, I'd be a fool to deny that both Clark and Mullens have a ton of upside. Then again, I think upside is extremely overrated.
ReplyDeleteThe Rubio-to-Sacramento idea makes sense on a certain level. However, in a relatively shallow draft, there are actually a fair number of point guard prospects. I would think the Kings would take a point guard with their second first round pick.
ReplyDeleteYou say the Kings could take a PG with there #23 pick, which is true, but you should always choose need before luxury when your in the top spot. I will make the same argument here that I did with the Rose/Beasley situation last year. You always take a top flight PG before you take a prime time big man. The Kings, just like last years Bulls, have some very young talent up front, and you always have to have patience with young big men. This is a young team that is further away from success then one great big man and an average PG. They need a great PG and some other pieces. They could easily go with Austin Daye at 23, and get someone like Tyler Smith or Damien James in the 2nd. IMO thats the way they need to go.
ReplyDeleteWow, umm... The more I read your draft the more I find wrong with it. I'll comment later because I have to leave the computer for a while, but there is a lot of stuff in here that doesn't make since.
ReplyDeleteAs to the Kings' supposed bevy of frontcourt talent, I would argue that, when Jason Thompson is your most promising post player, it's time to go after Blake Griffin. That is, unless you're extremely high on Ike Diogu, Donte Greene (who's more of a 3), Spencer Hawes, or Cedric Simmons.
ReplyDelete"Still, I'd be a fool to deny that both Clark and Mullens have a ton of upside. Then again, I think upside is extremely overrated."
ReplyDeleteHere's a list that would disagree with upside being extremely overrated: Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, Jermaine O'neal, Tracy McGrady, Al Harrington, Darius Miles, Lebron, Dwight Howard, Amar'e Stoudemire.... To say upside is overrated is just foolish. Right now, Tyler Hansborough has about as much upside in the NBA as Admiral Sax has in his ability to rationally recommend who teams should draft. Granted, Hansborough has the ACC record for points scored, he has developed an 18 foot jump shot in the last year, he is adored by Dickie V, and he already has a sweet nickname, but I think GMs would be just as inclined to fall in love with PPat -- who has upside, is much more athletic, is a comparable size, works his ass off just as much as PsychoT, and will develop an 18 foot jump shot.
Love,
Kwame B.
PS, I may have been drafted on upside and flopped but I'm one rich bastard.
Kwame,
ReplyDeleteDarius Miles? Are you kidding me? Why didn't you throw in Robert Swift and Eddy Curry for good measure? And you sign your diatribe Kwame Brown? And, unless I'm mistaken, high schoolers aren't eligible to be drafted this go around.
Moreover, with Evans at 7, DeRozan at 10, and Daye at 24, I don't think I've totally ignored upside.
And it's Tyler Hansbrough not Hansborough.
Yours,
Stromile Swift
i see rice from bc in the first round hes a sleeper
ReplyDeleteYes, Sacramento doesn't have loads of talent up front, but they have even less at the PG position. Jason Thompson will develope into a solid player, and Spencer Hawes will be a nice compliment. Do they need to improve? Yes. But they don't need to deepen a position they aren't hurting at if they can get their PG for the next 10 years (unless free agency has something to say about it).
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThe Villan
ReplyDeleteCorrect me if I'm wrong, but didn't they have Steve Fancis at that point. In that case, no you don't take Jay Williams.
IMO and many others, Ricky Rubio is going to be a stud, and he has played and performed against better competition than Blake Griffin.
Once again, I never said put the future of their fron court in the hands of Hawes and Thompson, but it's in far better shape than their PG scenario.
The Yao Ming comparison is a bad comparison. If you come up on a guy like Tim Duncan, Yao Ming, or Dwight Howard then I would take the big guy, but not just a PF. When is the last time a PF (Timmy is a C no matter where he is listed) lead his team to the championship. If your Building a franchise you start at C, then PG.
I would also argue against Griffin being a "sure thing". We still don't know if he is infact 6'10, or even 6'8 for that matter. If he is 2 or 3 inches shorter than listed he doesn't have the game to be a great 3, and he will be too small to be a dominant 4.
ReplyDeleteNo way in the world the Cavaliers would take Harangody. They already have four power forwards under 6'9
ReplyDeleteHawes is a 5 that can hit the 3, post up and everyone said that he coudn't rebound or block shots and he di that this year, he will be an allstar
ReplyDeleteI highly doubt Hawes will be an all-star, but he will be a solid player. That said, you don't need 5 all-stars on your team to be a top notch team. Jason Thompson has all-pro potential, and we already know K-Mart is a great talent. Put a great PG like Rubio in the equation and you have a team that is a couple drafts away from being a playoff contender.
ReplyDeleteI really don't think we'll ever see Hawes or Thompson in the All-Star game. I'm not saying they're horrible players, but I don't see it. And, while I think Griffin is a pretty clear-cut number one, I don't think it's crazy to argue for Rubio. I guess I just didn't expect it. Then again, in a draft lacking storylines, I wonder if this Griffin vs. Rubio thing may take on a life of its own.
ReplyDeleteit allready is starting right here (and on other mock draft sites) i think what will lead to rubio over griffin is that the kings have a history of good euro pics
ReplyDeleteand for the record, maybe i jumped the gun on the whole all-star thing but cumon how many 5s can hit 3s and post up? i can see it now jason as the rebounder, rubio as the leader, and kevin and hawes as the go to guys
as a kings fan, look this way, if the kings don't get #1 rubio could still be avalible at 3 (griffin at 1 then the tall guy with the hard name to spell) so some times #1 is more of a punishment then a reward
I think I see where you're going with the whole #1 can be a punishment thing. For instance, in the 2006 Draft, I didn't think there was a worthy #1 pick in the whole bunch. However, I loved Brandon Roy coming out of Washington (and Shelden Williams regrettably). Anyway, had I been awarded the #1 pick, I would have preferred to trade down and take Roy. But if no trade could be made, I'm not sure I could have taken Roy #1. And while at the time I wasn't a big LaMarcus Aldridge fan, how incredible is it that the Blazers got Roy and Aldridge out of the same draft?
ReplyDeleteSo rather than taking the best player for your team, teams at the one spot often try to take the guy they think has the best chance of living up to the hype that surrounds the number one pick. But in reality, that guy isn't there every year. So, I guess the question is -- is Griffin the guy that can live up to the hype, or is he just the most obvious pick in an underwhelming draft class that may not be a good fit in Sacramento?
ReplyDeleteone thing i didn't bring up is that jason has played small forward some this year, his handleing and passing are not good enough to do this long turm (at least not now), but if the kings fall in love with griffin that could be a option. or they could trade jason or the #1, how does griffin for like OJ mayo sound?
ReplyDeleteI'm not big on Mayo, so, if I'm the Grizz, I might jump at Griffin. That being said, Mayo has proven himself a capable scorer, and Griffin is going to have to develop some post moves. I'm not sure Memphis would go for this (even if they should).
ReplyDeletePlus, I feel like K-Mart and Mayo would be sort of redundant.
ReplyDeleteit would be, but mayo would be a diff way to get a point guard mike bibby wasn't an assist guy but we were good with him
ReplyDelete