The Bubble Picture

Here's my take on the bubble heading into Selection Sunday.

My Last 6 In:

Auburn
-Auburn went 10-6 in conference. Yes, it was a down year in the SEC. Still, are you really going to put 9-9 Big Ten teams in over a 10-6 SEC squad? My guess is that, yes, in fact, that is exactly what the Committee will do.

South Carolina
-The same analysis applies to South Carolina. Auburn may sneak in, but I think the Committee will leave the Gamecocks out.

Texas A&M
-A&M went 9-7 in the Big 12 and finished strong. The only reason I have them this far down is the Aggies' loss to lowly Texas Tech in the Big 12 tourney. I think A&M is a lock at this point.

Penn State
-Penn State deserves the nod over both Michigan and Minnesota based on the Nittany Lions' 10-8 conference record. While they split with both Michigan and Minnesota, PSU boasts wins over both Michigan State and Purdue. Plus, they swept Illinois.

San Diego State
-I believe there is a clear line of demarcation between Penn State and San Diego State. Penn State and above deserve to get in, and, if they don't, they have a right to be angry. From San Diego State and below, however, I can see the arguments for all sides. As for the Aztecs, they finished in fourth place in the Mountain West, though only one game out of a tie for first. They also beat UNLV three times and made it to their conference tourney championship game before falling to Utah by two. Steve Fisher of Fab Five fame may be dancing once again.

Saint Mary's
-SMC just gets my last at-large bid. While I'm not sure Patty Mills has fully recovered from his hand injury, the Gaels have put together a nice season. While SMC lost to conference rival Gonzaga three times, they have wins over Kansas State and fellow bubble-dwellers San Diego State and Providence.

*Note: If Mississippi State upsets Tennessee tomorrow, there will be one less at-large bid. In that case, Saint Mary's will be NIT-bound, and San Diego State will be headed to the Dance as my last at-large bid (despite the Aztecs head-to-head loss to the Gaels. However, I reserve the right to revisit the SMC versus SDSt debate prior to the Selection Show.

My First 7 Out:

Michigan
-Michigan has non-conference wins over both Duke and UCLA. While these feats are impressive, some perspective may be in order. Michigan had two shots at Duke, and won once. And the 08-09 version of UCLA is not as talented as Bruins squads in years past. Michigan did sweep Minnesota in Big Ten play and, so, will most likely get the nod over the Gophers if it comes down to those two. I just can't get past Michigan's .500 conference record (even in a deep Big Ten conference).

Minnesota
-I actually think Minnesota is a better team than Michigan and a number of the other bubble-dwellers. Unfortunately, I think the Gophers' profile comes up just short of an at-large bid. With the exception of their win over Louisville, their non-conference resume is pretty empty. They played well in conference but got swept by Michigan and finished 9-9. I won't be shocked if they get in, but they don't have much to be upset about if they get left out.

Providence
-Before the season started, I'm pretty sure no one thought it possible that a team could finish 10-8 in Big East play and not make the tourney. Well, that's what we're looking at with the Friars. Providence's non-conference schedule was soft and unimpressive. They have wins over Pitt and Syracuse (and they swept Cincy), but their conference record was inflated by wins over the Big East's least talented teams.

New Mexico
-Steve Alford's club finished in a three-way tie for the Mountain West regular season title. Unfortunately for the Lobos, they have some bad non-conference losses and got knocked out of their conference tourney by Wyoming.

Arizona
-I actually won't be too upset if the Wildcats get a bid. The Wildcats have a nice profile in terms of non-conference wins (San Diego State, Gonzaga, and Kansas), but their conference play was lackluster (9-9 in an average Pac-10). With USC giving the Pac-10 a fifth representative, Arizona's bubble may have burst.

Florida
-The Gators have a ton of talent, and they finished with a winning record in conference play. However, there's no way the SEC gets five bids (and that's even if Mississippi State wins tomorrow and the conference deserves five bids), and Florida is clearly fifth in terms of SEC pecking order at this point.

Creighton
-Yes, Creighton finished the season winning 11 of their last 12, but that one loss really gets me -- a 73-49 defeat at the hands of Illinois State in the Missouri Valley tourney. Plus, with the exception of a win over Dayton, the Bluejays don't have much in terms of non-conference resume.

*Note: The above teams are really the only ones that I believe deserve serious consideration.

Mistake the Selection Committee is Destined to Make:

Maryland
-If Maryland gets in, something is seriously wrong. The Terps finished 7-9 in conference play. I have trouble imagining a scenario where a team that finishes below .500 in conference play deserves to play for the national championship. Gary Williams' squad has non-conference wins over Michigan and Michigan State, but they also lost to Morgan State, Gonzaga by 22, and Georgetown by 27. In ACC play, the Terps beat UNC in February and Wake during the conference tourney. They closed out their regular season losing to Virginia. Against the ACC's top six teams (the one's with winning records in conference play), the Terps are 2-8 (and that's including their conference tourney win over Wake). This is not a tournament team. It blows my mind that they are even getting consideration. That being said, expect the Selection Committee to give Maryland an at-large bid.