Should I Stay or Should I Go?

From all internet accounts, it appears Coach John Calipari will be named the next head coach at the University of Kentucky. Well, wait a second. At this point, some internet sources predict Calipari will be the next head coach at the University of Kentucky. Hold on this just in: internet sources reveal Calipari has resigned from Memphis to accept the head coaching position at the University of Kentucky. One more second . . . it appears the internet has crashed after serveral sources confirmed Calipari is still weighing his options.

Here's what we know: Calipari has been offered by UK and he is weighing his options, with several people reporting he is likely to accept Kentucky's offer. Here's what else I know - screw (I gave up the f-word for Easter) internet sources. If there is one thing that has irritated me about this whole saga is the eagerness of radio stations, websites, tv stations, and blogs to be the first to report that it is a done deal. Reporting this story will not make or break your business, whatever it may be. Accuracy in your reporting is what will make or break your business. Largely the success of your reporting will be on its depth, analysis, and entertainment value. When this story officially breaks, as I expect it to in the next day or so, no one will care who broke the story first, trust me.

You may be thinking to yourself: Louis you seem like a somewhat intelligent person. ESPN will likely break the story a mere seconds after it is broken by some other media outlet. Why don't you just quit reading these reports and just wait until it's announced by either UK or ESPN? Well, you would be wrong. Not about ESPN breaking the story soon after another outlet, but about me being a somewhat intelligent person. If there are two things I've realized in this life, they are this: Don't dip your company pen in your boss' daughter and dont' expect yourself to be rational when it comes to your favorite sports team.

I cannot expect myself to be at all rational or level-headed when it comes to news on UK. That is especially true when we are on the verge of making the biggest college basketball hire in history. (See comments on irrationality.) I will look at every piece of news I possibly can. That means I'm watching a door on video, reading accounts from flight attendants, and taking seriously stories from my father's partner's uncle's friend who is friends with Sam Bowie. This is my life, and I've accepted it.

My point is only this: for those of us who are unable to self-censor our media intake during times as these, if you are wanting to report on something, please do it in a halfway responsible manner.

O Captain! My Captain!

Big Blue Nation is currently rejoicing amidst widespread speculation that John Calipari will soon be named UK’s head coach. You can’t underscore the enormity of this hire. This instantly makes UK more dynamic, gives them a chance of landing the best recruiting class in the country, and teaming a host of talented freshmen with potentially the best shooting guard and best post man in the country. In the realm of UK basketball hyperbole runs rampant, but that last sentence was no exaggeration. For those of you who are not aware, Memphis already has locked up the top wing player, top post player, and is considered the leader for the top point guard in the class of 2009 (Xavier Henry, Demarcus Cousins, and John Wall, respectively). Think Fab Five except Jodie Meeks as a senior and Patrick Patterson as a junior instead of freshman versions of Ray Jackson and Jimmy King (I’ll await my correction on that analogy from the Admiral). UK could go from NIT doormat this season to a pre-season dark horse for the Final Four.

Calipari meets all the criteria for a UK coach. He’s charismatic, doesn’t shy from the spotlight, brings an exciting brand of basketball, recruits unbelievable talent, and has proven he can get teams to the Final Four. He welcomes a challenging non-conference schedule and he’s as hungry for domination as the UK fan base. Despite twenty-one years of head coaching experience, he’s still only 50, which means he could be at the helm for as long as fifteen years. Who could blame him for taking the job? People always point out that you don’t mess with happiness, and I think that’s definitely true, but how happy is Coach Cal knowing that his daughters are driving around downtown Memphis during the weekends? He also learned this year that no matter how well he coaches his team or how much talent he has on the roster, it's very difficult to win in the tourney when your boys haven't played a close game against a decent team since Christmas. Every season Calipari has to do the ESPN circuit to try to convince people that his team really is good. That won't be the case at UK. He can recruit, coach, and make appearances on ESPN just to have national praise lavished upon him. It's the job he's earned and he's the candidate UK needs.

The instant excitement he could bring to the state will take the UK-UofL rivalry to another level. UofL fans are grimacing at the fact that UK is in the process of legitimizing its program, but the Calipari hiring would really only hurt UofL one day a year. The rivalry will generate more national buzz and get more attention from recruits, which will lead to more talented rosters for each school. In three years it may supplant the UNC-Duke rivalry (don’t tell Mike Patrick or Chris from Duke that or they will literally smash in your face). But that’s not a reach right now. Pitino and Calipari can rival any coaching tandem in the country for drama and national attention, and they do a decent job of putting talented squads on the floor, too.

As a parting shot, this hiring could operate as a true “screw you” (I gave up the F-bomb for Lent, or else I would definitely use it for emphasis) to the national media pundits. People start making statements about the UK job, stating that it’s not that great of a job anymore; that there is too much pressure and it’s not worth it. That’s fine coming from analysts, but I’d like to see an anonymous poll of college head coaches. Head coaches are ambitious, power-hungry, and crave success. Nobody likes working his ass off and then realizing that nobody really cares how much blood, sweat, and tears he put into that job. At UK, people recognize that work. They expect success, but they don’t take it for granted. They respect the game and UK's proud history. You can tell they respect it by the internet message boards, the radio call in shows, the infinite sell-outs in Rupp Arena, and also by the fact that their boosters will open their wallets to assure the future of the program. Maybe Jay Wright is happier at Villanova than he could be at Kentucky, and that’s fine. He has deep roots there, and is enjoying plenty of success, but I’d love to get an honest answer from him if someone asks what he thinks about the fact that John Calipari is going to get paid three times as much money as him to do the same job. The UK job will always be one of the best jobs because there is too much fan support (read: money) to ever let it slip into obscurity. And if you're one of those types who says when you're making $2 Million a year, does it really make a difference to make more, then I kind of think you're an idiot (and yes that means there is a difference, and it's called a helicopter). Apparently Calipari compared it to Notre Dame football, but I think the accurate comparison is Alabama football. Amazingly proud history, championships, and known more for its culture of team success than specific individuals who go on to dominate at the professional level. It took Nick Saban to get Alabama’s football team from also-ran to national championship contender. Kentucky might have just locked up its Nick Saban.

March Madness: Elite Eight

To all the readers out there (I believe your name is Chris from Duke) who were upset by my failure to predict the Elite Eight games, I apologize.

If it makes you feel any better, you didn't miss anything, as I would have gone 1-3 for the weekend. I had UNC over Oklahoma but also believed Louisville would top Michigan State, Pitt would top Villanova, and, in an upset, Mizzou would top UConn. If you're keeping tabs at home that puts me at 46-14 for the tourney (when you factor in my 4-0 record for the second day of the Sweet 16).

Despite my poor showing, I really wasn't that surprised by the outcomes. However, Louisville really disappointed against the Spartans. Coming in as the number one overall number one seed, the Cards lucked into the easiest road to the Elite Eight. After playing a near-perfect game against Arizona in the Sweet 16, the Cards ran into a focused Michigan State squad that outplayed and outworked the favorites. Unfortunately for Cards' fans, this was without a doubt Louisville's best chance to win a championship during the Rick Pitino era. While a return to the Sweet 16 is a definite possibility for UofL next season, it does not appear that they will be quite so formidable.

That being said, I'll be back next week with Final Four picks.

Here We Go Again.

Here we are again. Two years after Tubby decided to leave Kentucky for Minnesota over a disagreement regarding his coaching staff, UK is again looking to hire a new coach to lead the basketball program back to the promise land of SEC Championships and Final Fours. Admittedly, UK looks pretty bad right now. The basketball program has not been relevant in four seasons and currently doesn't have a coach. Our fan base has been painted as psychotically obsessed with success. As a result, the perception is that coaching the basketball team has become the hardest job in sports. Why is this? And is it fair?

Kentucky has been a target of the national media since the "firing" of Tubby Smith, and it appears have just painted a wider target on our backs after the FIRING of Billy Gillispie. I happen to feel that both decisions were the correct ones. Tubby was great at UK. It's hard to argue he wasn't. He led some of the most beloved UK teams in recent memory. The Bogans-led squad of 2002 finished the regular season ranked number one. The Fitch-Hayes-Daniels led squad of 2003 also finished number one. They are two of the most popular teams over the last 20 years. The 2005 Hayes-led squad was also great. And don't forget the championship team of 1998 led by Sheppard. However, it was also apparent that Tubby was starting to slip. His tournament success was fading, and his recruiting was very suspect. Tubby was a great coach, but was clearly failing to bring in the talent UK was used to. His assistant coaching staff was largely to blame, and largely incompetent. His request to add his son Saul Smith to the staff had to be met with great trepidation. Though UK has been blasted for its decision, most close to the program believe it was the right decision. It is true, Tubby's race was an issue for a minority of UK fans. That's the world we live in, not the state. Furthermore, it had absolutely no bearing on Tubby's tenure with the program. If he were elected for the position every four years, race may have played a factor. He's not and it wasn't. Tubby's end at UK revolved around missed recruiting opportunities that led to two bad years and his own refusals to make changes to his assistant coaching staff. I don't think Tubby should have been required to make changes, but I also thought his performance was slipping to the point it was a warranted suggestion by the department.

One thing is clear - the national media is obsessed with the idea that we ran Tubby out of town. Make your own determination of the situation, but I find it hard to place all the blame on the athletic department. Tubby brought in a class of Bobby Perry, Sheray Thomas, Lukaz Orbzut, and Shagari Alleyne. Now, if you can make an argument that he wasn't slipping - I'd be glad to get really drunk and try to entertain it. Regardless, the bashing of UK over the Tubby Smith situation, to me, is just not entirely fair. The fans deserve some criticism over their reaction to Tubby Smith during his nine years. Some never warmed up to him. He was a great coach and a great person to lead the program. He just started slipping, and it was noticeable to everyone in the State who had to watch Shagari Alleyne run the floor. We've moved on, but ESPN hasn't. Now we are in a similar situation after firing Clyde and again the bashers have come out in full force. I'm looking at you Michael Wilbon. Tony Kornheiser made you.

So where are we at and where do we go from here? Let's make a few things clear.

First. The National Media outlets from ESPN to Fox Sports have lambasted the program for firing Billy Clyde after only two seasons. Where our treatment of Tubby Smith may have deserved a little criticism from the media, the media's criticism of our program this go around seems to be entirely misplaced. After the general distaste for the program after the Tubby situation, here seem to be the basic gripes about the UK program's firing of Billy Clyde.

1. UK fired him to early. He deserved a third year. This is an argument I simply do not understand. His record on the basketball court certainly was not deserving of a third year. Allegedly, his off-court behavior and treatment of players, parents, and others close to the program suggested he wasn't deserving of a second year. ESPN apparently feels that any coach that is hired automatically deserves at least three years to get the program where he wants it to be. Many have suggested he still didn't have his players at UK, yet. (We will address his recruiting later.) The bottom line is that no one has pointed out to me an affirmative action taken by Billy Clyde that made him deserving of a third year. Plenty of things suggest he wasn't deserving, but nothing suggests he was deserving besides his hiring in the first place. Personally, I don't think anyone deserves a certain amount of years just because they were hired. Hence, the existence and use of the famous buy out clause.
   
2. UK Fans Have Unreal Expectations. This is a problem with any major program, but is accentuated at UK because of the rabid fan base. However, the majority of the fan base just wants a team they can be excited about. We want to know we are at least moving in the right direction. That was never seen during the Billy Clyde era. Now there are certainly a large group of fans who lose their shit on the message boards after any loss, bad half, or questionable moves made by the coach. People cut Billy slack last year because of injuries, but this year there was no excuse for the complete collapse. Watching this year's team for every game, there is no reason fans shouldn't have been upset with Billy's coaching job. He had a 12-4 record in a down SEC conference last year. We were happy, but that is no reason to not be upset with how things have gone this year.
   
3. UK Hired a Rebuilding Coach and Didn't Let Him Rebuild. There is merit to this argument. However, I don't think it's entirely an indictment of UK's firing, but more a comment on the hiring. We didn't need a rebuilding coach, and that's not what we were looking for. We were looking for an enthusiastic recruiter, a guy that seemingly slept and ate around basketball. The problem is that the pressure at UK teamed with that type of personality created an atmosphere for a guy to snap.
   

It's hard to find any strong argument on the court against the firing of Billy Clyde. He wasn't getting the job done and there were no signs that progress was being made to get the job done in the future. That's a deadly combination for any coach, anywhere.

Second. Should he have been fired? It is difficult to form a complete opinion on the Gillispie firing, because it is clear off-court issues the fans and media are not privy to were the deciding factor in the decision. Several former players and a few current players have publicly expressed their backing of the decision. In my experience, when players have so quickly turned on their former coach it's a sign of how bad things were. Players are naturally inclined to support their coach, to turn on him means there was some really bad stuff going on behind the scenes. The national media has yet to comment on this. They have demonized the UK department and fans. I don't think that's fair.

Not having all the information on the off-court issues, let's look solely at what he produced on the court and in the recruiting efforts and evaluate whether or not the firing was at least partly justified by that. Now, again, I think his firing was mostly a result of the off-court issues, but record being 13 games over .500 didn't help anything. If he was winning, Barnhart and Todd may have been more willing to discuss his behavior, though there is evidence they had tried several times during his tenure. Here's what he did for the program.

1. Losses at VMI and Gardner-Webb. Two really bad losses. Maybe the two worst in UK history. That's quite an accomplishment for a coach in only two years. Now, as bad as these losses where it wasn't the names of either school that got Billy in trouble. Essentially, these two games highlighted Billy's complete refusal or inability to make changes in game strategy. They highlighted his stubbornness which eventually was his downfall.
2. 2009 Collapse. Let's get one thing straight, no UK fan was happy about playing in the N-I-T. But let me also make clear, it was not the N-I-T that upset fans alone. If we were depleted in talent, recovering from a scandal, etc. the N-I-T would have been a perfectly acceptable option. It was the complete collapse in 2009 that caused the fans to turn on Billy. It was evident none of the players were having fun. There was a horrible stench around the program and as a fan it became very difficult to watch. UK had the talent to play in the tournament this year, and at several points looked like a 4 or 5 seed. Billy completely lost the team in 2009 and when they ceased to be enjoyable to watch, the fans got really upset.
   
3. Recruits. This hasn't gotten much attention. I don't like to comment on recruits before they get on campus, but in defense of the program it may be necessary. As I stated earlier, ESPN feels adement about Billy deserving a third year, largely so he can get his players into the program. Let's take a look at his recruiting efforts. Alex Legion transfers out before the turn of the 2007-2008 season. Donald Williams doesn't see a minute of action all year long. Josh Harrelson and Kevin Galloway see very limited action all year long. They get sporadic playing time that is confusing at best and mentally-challeged at worst. Billy admitted to sometimes forgetting about players on the bench. Deandre Liggins is the sixth man, and receives the majority of minutes at point guard through much of the pre-conference schedule, but then fails to see the court in several games and plays less than 5 minutes in many of the others. It is no secret he and Gillispie butted heads, but doesn't some of the blame land on coach. Liggins was a five-star point guard who was never allowed to play through a mistake, rarely allowed to get in a good rythm with the team. I always felt that when he got significant minutes he made something happen and made us a more dynamic team. Darius Miller looked great to start the season and great to end the season, but had a stretch of 15 games in the middle where he obviously lacked any and all confidence in himself. In summary, Gillispie had five players on this year's team who were expected to contribute, and only one really did. His recruiting did not appear to be much stronger for the future. He's bringing in Orton, Hood, Vilarino and Tucker in for next year. Orton is a top center in the class, but his rankings were falling. That was before a season-ending knee injury. Hood's play has been criticized throughout the state, and many doubt he would have seen much time over Harris or Miller next year. Vilarino is a point guard from Texas who was not ranked in the top 150 players. I think they are all good players, but I don't see any of them turning the program around. Let's not forget the 8th grader he recruited - Micheal Avery. We also have Dakotah Euton and Vinny Zollo who look more like Tuba players in the band than Division I college players. The thought of those two on the blocks at the same time makes me want to start following the Lady Wildcats for a few seasons. KC Ross Miller has fallen out of the top 150 in his class and looked really bad duringa tournament against decent talent in Lexington. He plays in an all-Christian high school league in Texas that doesn't put top talent on the floor. Dominique Ferguson seems like a legitimate talent in 2010. But that's where we were standing with Billy's great recruiting. This was more of a rant than a coherent comment, but my point is that things didn't look much brighter for the future with scholarships tied up on players still waiting for their testicles to drop (Avery) and players who look like a pair of testicles (Zollo and Euton).
   

Third. The department is partly to blame. I will concede that point. They made a bad hire without weighing all of the information. As said by almost anyone who has commented on the situation - It was a bad fit. Many are quick to point out that complete blame has to fall on the hiring committee. We knew what we were getting. We knew his personality. But should the blame fall on the department for acknowledging they made a bad hire, cutting their losses, and trying to correct the decision?

Can anyone truly hold them responsible for knowing of Gillispie's actions. Let's take a step back and consider what are rumored to be several of the off-court issues. I can't think of any instance in which he publicly humiliated a female reporter on television. I can't think of any reports on his behavior towards players and parents, besides being somewhat of a hard ass. Personally, I think Billy wasn't used to losing and as a result he started losing it. Yes, the hiring committee jumped the gun when Tubby left, but Billy's actions were not completely foreseeable. If some of the stories released are true, and I suspect that they are, Billy is also largely to blame.

With every rant, I feel it is important to try and summarize my central ideas. From the on-court evidence, the firing of Gillispie was the right decision. Add the rumoured off-court issues and it seems like a no-brainer for the department. In many respects, I feel they didn't have much of a choice in the decision. It was something that had to be done. UK is to blame for making a bad hire, but shouldn't be blamed for the firing in any respect. If Tubby would have retired, rather than being forced out, I feel there would be much less bashing of this firing, and more consideration paid to the off-court issues that ultimately led to Billy's firing.

To the UK fans: Don't worry. I don't have the highest confidence in Barnhart, but I do believe this situation will force the administration to carefully consider who the next coach will be. Again, I feel the firing was something that many close to the program - players, parents, boosters, and department staff - felt had to be done. I tend to trust that many people that close to the team. I know many of us, myself included, wanted the next hire to have been in place. But take some solace in knowing that the next hire will have been made under careful consideration. I tend to believe it will be a successful hire. Barnhart knows it has to be.

As to who that next person will be - I honestly have no idea. But the program is in a better place now, than it was Friday morning.

March Madness: Sweet 16 (Day 2)

I went 3-1 for Day One of the Sweet 16. Thus, I now sit at 41-11 for the tourney overall. I had Memphis over Missouri, despite my love affair with Mike Anderson. Mizzou kind of flew under the radar all season long, but, if the Tigers can upset UConn in the Elite Eight, basketball fans will get the chance to become more familiar with a team that is a load of fun to watch. As they showed during their 102-91 win over Memphis, Missouri likes to run. They also like to press and trap...for pretty much the entire game. Oh, and they also have two 6-8-plus post players who run the floor like gazelles and can play with their backs to the baskets -- seniors DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons who both flirted with the NBA Draft after their junior years and who are possibly the best kept secrets in college basketball. Carroll, in particular, is a unique player. Besides his Predator-like appearance and top-level athleticism, the guy brings a blue-collar mentality to the game and is in non-stop motion for forty minutes.

On to the second batch of Sweet 16 picks.

12 Arizona vs. 1 Louisville [7:07 ET]
The Pick: Louisville
-Depth is the name of the game in this one. Louisville has it in excess, while Arizona's bench is woefully thin. The Wildcats' Big Three (Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger, and Nic Wise) will give the Cards trouble, but look for them to be gassed by the second half.

3 Syracuse vs. 2 Oklahoma [7:27 ET]
The Pick: Oklahoma
-I actually like Syracuse more than Oklahoma, but I just can't get past the feeling that Jim Boeheim's club is due for a letdown. 'Cuse has been playing great basketball for weeks now, but their regular season body of work does not lead me to believe they can put together this many wins in a row. That being said, Boeheim has about four post players to rotate on Blake Griffin. Willie Warren is going to need a big scoring game for the Sooners.

3 Kansas vs. 2 Michigan State [9:37 ET]
The Pick: Michigan State
-This one is going to be close. I love the Sherron Collins-Cole Aldrich combo, but I'm not sure the Jayhawks' young supporting cast is up to the challenge of a veteran Michigan State squad. Perhaps most importanly, Tom Izzo has a host of big bodies to throw at Aldrich.

4 Gonzaga vs. 1 North Carolina [9:57 ET]
The Pick: North Carolina
-If UNC is going to get beat, it's going to be to a team that focuses for for forty minutes and plays a physical-style of basketball. Gonzaga is not that team. The Bulldogs have the talent but are too soft and suffer from their own mental lapses.

March Madness: Sweet 16 (Day 1)

I finished 7-1 on Day Two of the Round of 32 (Wisconsin over Xavier was my only miss), which puts me at 14-2 for the second round and 38-10 overall.

I should note that it's certainly much easier to pick the winner at the beginning of each round. My bracket (or what's left of it) is proof if of this fact.

Without further ado, my first batch of Sweet 16 picks.

5 Purdue vs. 1 Connecticut [7:07 ET]
The Pick: Connecticut
-Purdue is playing very good basketball, and, thanks to the teleunit scandal (pictured above) swirling around Storrs, Jim Calhoun's squad has plenty of disractions heading into Thursday's matchup. While my heart says Purdue, my head can't get past Jeff Adrien's muscle and Hasheem Thabeet's length. I look for UConn to squeak by in a close one.

4 Xavier vs. 1 Pittsburgh [7:27 ET]
The Pick: Pittsburgh
-Pitt has been in something of a funk so far in the tourney. Still, the Xavier guards will need to come up huge if the Musketeers are going to have a chance. Ultimately, I think the Panthers win in a semi-blowout due to their play in the paint.

3 Missouri vs. 2 Memphis [9:37 ET]
The Pick: Memphis
-I think this is the closest call of the bunch. Mizzou's 40 minutes of hell defense will test freshman point guard Tyreke Evans. Not to mention that he will be defended in the half-court by J.T. Tiller -- one of the nation's most talented perimeter defenders. Mizzou has the advantage in the post, but I like the Memphis wings in this one. Look for Antonio Anderson, in particular, to be a game-changer.

3 Villanova vs. 2 Duke [9:57 ET]
The Pick: Villanova
-Jay Wright's guards get all the attention, but the Wildcats frontcourt will be the difference in this one. Gerald Henderson will have to put his teammates on his back if the Blue Devils are to prevail.

March Madness: Round of 32 (Day 2)

After going 24-8 for the first round, I opened up the second round at 7-1. (I had Washington over Purdue, but the Boilermakers took care of business in a close one.) Not too shabby, but, again, it's not like I predicted any huge upsets. Overall, I'm 31-9 heading into Day Two of the second round. Oh, and Coach K is headed back to the Sweet 16 for the first time since the 2005-06 season much to the chagrin of college basketball fans everywhere.

6 Arizona State vs. 3 Syracuse [12:10 ET]
The Pick: Syracuse
-I like Jim Boeheim's team to prevail here, but who guards James Harden? I don't think Eric Devendorf is up to the task. Jonny Flynn is too short. And I'm not sure Paul Harris is cerebral enough to guard Harden (and his repertoire of pump fakes and jab steps) without getting into foul trouble. The Sun Devils could win, but Harden would need to be spectacular.

12 Wisconsin vs. 4 Xavier [2:20 ET]
The Pick: Wisconsin
-Look for the Badgers' patience on the offensive end to frustrate Sean Miller's Musketeers. Plus, Bo Ryan has a number of capable defenders to throw at Derrick Brown.

11 Dayton vs. 3 Kansas [2:30 ET]
The Pick: Kansas
-Dayton is more than athletic enough to play with the Jayhawks, but Cole Aldrich should have his way with the undersized Flyers. Still, if Dayton can keep Aldrich from racking up the trash baskets, an upset is a real possibility here. Bill Self's squad hasn't been playing great basketball as of late.

13 Cleveland State vs. 12 Arizona [2:40 ET]
The Pick: Arizona
-Arizona's three-man show of Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger, and Nic Wise was sensational against Utah in the first round. Hill went for 17 points and 13 boards. Budinger finished with 20 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, and four steals. And Wise dropped 29 on the Runnin' Utes. Cleveland State could certainly pull off the (minor) upset here, but I just don't think they have an answer for Hill. That being said, don't be surprised if the Cats fail to advantage of this obvious mismatch and choose to jack up ill-advised threes instead. In that case, mark the Vikings down for the Sweet 16.

8 Oklahoma State vs. 1 Pittsburgh [2:50 ET]
The Pick: Pittsburgh
-The Cowboys are going to have to get out to a lead early if they want to have a chance in this one. Travis Ford's squad is short in the post and thin on the bench. Not a good combination for a team hoping to knock off the physically imposing and deep Pitt Panthers.

6 Marquette vs. 3 Missouri [4:50 ET]
The Pick: Missouri
-Marquette has no answer for Mizzou's post tandem of DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons. I'm looking forward to seeing J.T. Tiller and Jerel McNeal square off. Two of the nation's premiere perimeter defenders going at it.

10 USC vs. 2 Michigan State [5:00 ET]
The Pick: Michigan State
-Upset potential here, but I like the Spartans to out-rebound and out-defend the inconsistent Trojans. The Kalin Lucas-Daniel Hackett point guard matchup is a contrast in styles but should be interesting.

9 Siena vs. 1 Louisville [5:20 ET]
The Pick: Louisville
-Siena has nice guards, but Louisville's relentless defensive pressure is going to wear them down. Plus, I'm not sure the Saints have an answer for Earl Clark (that is, of course, if E5 is interested in scoring in the post on Sunday).

March Madness: Round of 32 (Day 1)

First off, I'd like to invite our readers (if there are any), to check out Captain Montana's most recent post. Commodore Finnegan and I welcome the Captain back from his sabbatical and look forward to future posts. I'm thinking the Married Guy's Friday Night Post angle has promise. Kind of like a weekly Rick Reilly piece that doesn't make you wish you were dead. Now back to the madness...

Day Two of the Round of 64 was not kind to my bracket. After going 14-2 on Day One, I could only muster a 10-6 mark on Friday, leaving me at 24-8 for the first round. So where did I go wrong on Day Two? Well, I had Utah over Arizona, Wake Forest over Cleveland State, Tennessee over Oklahoma State, Florida State over Wisconsin, Temple over Arizona State, and West Virginia over Dayton. While I liked Dayton all season, the West Virginia loss surprised me. In fact, I thought the Mountaineers would reach the Elite Eight. Still, the biggest upset of the day had to be 13 seed Cleveland State's upset of 4 seed Wake Forest. Rumor has it that immediately following the game, a spontaneous, citywide reenactment of the Drew Carey Show's opening sequence took place on the streets of Cleveland. By way of full disclosure, I should also note that, while I predicted Kansas' victory over North Dakota State, my prediction that Sherron Collins would take Ben Woodside to the woodshed was just a tad off the mark. Collins got his 32, but Woodside dropped 37 on the Jayhawks. Overall, not a good day for Ivan Renko's Upside (the name of my bracket).

Before I reveal my first set of round two picks, let's take a look at how the power conferences stack up after round one.

Big 12: 6-0
Big East: 6-1
Pac-10: 5-1
Big Ten: 4-3
ACC: 3-4
SEC: 1-2

After I called out the Pac-10 for its Day One performances, I'm eating crow in light of Arizona, Arizona State, and USC picking up wins on Day Two. The Atlantic-10 actually managed a 2-1 first round record, placing the "mid-major" just ahead of the SEC.

Now, on to a batch of round two picks in which I pick the lower seed in every game.

3 Villanova vs. 6 UCLA [1:05 ET]
The Pick: Villanova
-Part of me wants to take UCLA here. The Bruins had the scare against VCU, which can be a good thing. Plus, there's the whole three straight trips to the Final Four thing. In the end, though, I have to take Nova. Jay Wright's squad has too many weapons on the offensive end. UCLA's strength is their perimeter defense, but there's only so much that you can do against the Wildcats' ballhandlers. Plus, Nova had its own scare against American U and should be ready to go.

10 Maryland vs. 2 Memphis [3:20 ET]
The Pick: Memphis
-Memphis has far too many weapons for Gary Williams' club. Maryland got past California, but the Tigers defense will be the difference in this one. Look for Calipari to apply pressure early and often to Terp point guard Greivis Vasquez. With Vasquez worn down by the second-half, I expect Memphis to roll (despite their first-round difficulties against CS Northridge).

9 Texas A&M vs. 1 Connecticut [3:35 ET]
The Pick: Connecticut
-A&M actually has the length to contend with the Huskies. The bruising style of Chinemelu Elongu could cause problems for Hasheem Thabeet. Ultimately, however, the Aggies' lack of a dynamic scorer will be their undoing.

5 Purdue vs. 4 Washington [5:40 ET]
The Pick: Washington
-Two very evenly matched opponents. If both teams play their best, Purdue wins. But Washington is more consistent and gets the nod.

8 LSU vs. 1 North Carolina [5:45 ET]
The Pick: North Carolina
-This one has the potential to be very close. And that's with a healthy Ty Lawson. With Lawson out (or at least hobbled), an upset is by no means out of the question. Still, I expect the Heels' stars to will their team to victory.

10 Michigan vs. 2 Oklahoma [5:50 ET]
The Pick: Oklahoma
-Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims have a chance against Blake Griffin and Willie Warren. But the Wolverines' uninspiring supporting cast simply can't match the production of Austin Johnson, Tony Crocker, Taylor Griffin, and Juan Pattillo.

12 Western Kentucky vs. 4 Gonzaga [8:10 ET]
The Pick: Gonzaga
-Western Kentucky has a great shot at making it two Sweet 16s in a row. Gonzaga looked vulnerable against Akron, and no one outscraps the Hilltoppers (especially the sometimes lackadaisical Zags). In the end, I give Mark Few's squad the edge, but it's a slight one. I just think the post tandem of Josh Heytvelt and Austin Daye is going to cause all sorts of problems for the under-sized Toppers. I'm looking forward to the Jeremy Pargo versus Orlando Mendez-Valdez matchup at the point. Two of the nation's best at dictating the flow of the action.

7 Texas vs. 2 Duke [8:15 ET]
The Pick: Duke
-Texas definitely has the horses to pull this one off. However, Duke has played well as of late, and Texas is maddeningly inconsistent. Duke gets the nod, but, if Damion James rises to the occasion and outplays Gerald Henderson, the Longhorns could prevail.

The Married Guy's Friday Night Post

Alright, my darlings, I think it's time that I contribute something more than rugged handsomeness to this fine blog, and I put my trip to Home Depot on hold so my Friday evening schedule opened up.

Rick “Hyperbole” Pitino was back to his old tricks, claiming that UofL is capable of winning without T-Will or Earl Clark, but has to have Andre McGee. That's what Pitino said after his Cards got more of a test than they expected from Morehead State. Personally, I think this is just Pitino trying to validate when he described Andre McGee as a better shooting Brevin Knight after McGee signed with UofL. He also described Terrence Williams (it was before he changed his name to T-Will) as a more athletic Dominique Wilkins (D-Wilk?). I kid because I care, Rick, and I am not going to question any tactic Pitino uses in March. The Cards look tough, and I don't think anyone in their region can match their talent and athleticism.

Are dark green jerseys reserved exclusively for mid-majors? North Dakota State, Siena, Cleveland State, Portland State, and Binghamtom are all rocking road green unis for the tourney. And don’t try to church up the Big Ten and say Michigan State wears green. There has only been one NCAA champion from the Big Ten since the 1989, which means that most of the players in this tournament have only been alive to see one Big Ten team win the tourney (Michigan State in 2000). Ergo, the Big Ten equals mid-major for purposes of this post.

In regards to Big Ten futility, the Western Kentucky win over Illinois was the most predictable upset in the history of 5-12 matchups. The Hilltoppers’ victory proved once again that teams that score only 33 points in a game during the regular season never cause any trouble in March.

I’m just really excited that there is a Taco Bell arena. I can just imagine Portland State coach Ken Bone (the one who looks like an older version of Kenneth from 30 Rock), really firing his team up before taking the court. “Come on guys! It’s the NCAA Tournament! We’ve worked all season, and now here we are…Taco Bell Arena!!”

Kansas’s Rock-Chalk chant (incantation?) is the gold standard for creepy school chants. I can’t imagine how much of a lead they have on the runner-up in that category, but the Jayhawks can sleep easy knowing they’ll at least be able to defend that title. That commercial with the Kansas students scares me way more than the “Haunting in Connecticut” one. Speaking of commercials, it just doesn’t feel like March Madness without a good Nash Bridges promo.

USC played great in the second half against Boston College. Taj Gibson was the headliner , with 24 points on 10-10 shooting, but DeMar DeRozan and his four capital letters contributed a solid 18 and 9. DeRozan didn’t live up to his high billing for much of the regular season, but came alive in the Pac-10 tourney. Every year I like to look for the Antonio McDyess of the tourney…the guy who can put together two or three amazing performances, and skyrocket his draft stock. DeRozan may be the torch bearer this season. If so, Michigan State (or Robert Morris) may have its (or his) hands full on Sunday.

I should probably liven up this post with a couple of pictures, but I think Coach K would prefer that all of us spend a little bit of time reflecting on the economy.

March Madness: Round of 64 (Day 2)

Day One of March Madness is in the books. I went 14-2 for the opener and even called the one true upset of the day -- Western Kentucky over Illinois. (Go Hilltoppers! I can't get enough of their baby-devouring blob of a mascot.) Then again, so did everyone else. Not that impressive overall, considering the favorites held serve for the most part. The misses? I had California over Maryland, but the undeserving Terps ousted Mike Montgomery's squad. Didn't really see that one coming. Have to wonder what the Pac-10 has in store for tomorrow. Day One was not impressive with Cal getting sent home and UCLA squeaking past VCU. Washington did look good against Mississippi State. The one that hurt, though, was Clemson's loss to Michigan. I didn't even have Michigan in my Field of 65, and they beat a team that I thought would be playing in the Elite Eight. Ouch. For the record, this is the second year in a row Oliver Purnell's Tigers have burned me. I had them in the Elite Eight last year as well, only to see 12 seed Villanova send Clemson packing in the first round. Oh well, on to Day Two.

14 Stephen F. Austin vs. 3 Syracuse [12:15 ET]
The Pick: Syracuse
-Syracuse played a lot of basketball in the Big East tourney, but Jim Boeheim's squad has good depth – especially in the frontcourt. Stephen F. Austin is simply outmanned.

9 Tennessee vs. 8 Oklahoma State [12:25 ET]
The Pick: Tennessee
-This one should be fun to watch. Oklahoma State typically has five players 6-6 or shorter on the floor, and Tennessee's players all play like their 6-6 or shorter. These teams are going to run, and I love the James Anderson-Tyler Smith matchup. Expect the Vols' depth to be the difference.

11 Utah State vs. 6 Marquette [12:30 ET]
The Pick: Marquette
-I really like Utah State – just not against Marquette. Even without Dominic James, the Golden Eagles have enough to get into the Round of 32.

14 North Dakota State vs. 3 Kansas [12:30 ET]
The Pick: Kansas
-I like the Jayhawks in a close one. Sure, Ben Woodside tore up the Summit League, but expect Sherron Collins to take NDSU's star to the woodshed.

11 Temple vs. 6 Arizona State [2:45 ET]
The Pick: Temple
-James Harden is incredible, but his supporting cast has disappeared as of late. Dionte Christmas' supporting cast, on the other hand, looks like it's rounding into form.

16 ETSU vs. 1 Pittsburgh [2:55 ET]
The Pick: Pittsburgh
-ETSU is a talented 16 seed, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them hang around for a bit. Ultimately, however, Pitt's bruising style will overwhelm the Atlantic Sun champs.

14 Cornell vs. 3 Missouri [3:00 ET]
The Pick: Missouri
-Cornell should have received a 16 seed, but they still received a nightmare matchup against Mizzou's 40 minutes of hell defense. This one could be fun to watch in terms of pure comedic value.

11 Dayton vs. 6 West Virginia [3:00 ET]
The Pick: West Virginia
-I like Dayton's talent, but I question the Flyers' collective basketball IQ. Expect Bob Huggins to have his Mountaineers prepared to take advantage of Dayton's mental lapses.

16 Morehead State vs. 1 Louisville [7:10 ET]
The Pick: Louisville
-The Cards will prevail, but this isn't the ideal matchup for the number one overall number one seed. You never want to play an in-state rival in the tourney, even if you beat them by 38 earlier in the season.

12 Arizona vs. 5 Utah [7:10 ET]
The Pick: Utah
-Jordan Hill is virtually unguardable on the college level, but Utah has the antecdote in Big Luke Nevill (7-2 265). An upset is possible but not likely.

10 USC vs. 7 Boston College [7:20 ET]
The Pick: USC
-Al Skinner has done a remarkable job getting a mediocre team into the tourney out of a deep ACC. Unfortunately for Boston College fans, however, USC is on a roll, and, unless they self-destruct, should prevail. However, if Rakim Sanders gets off, the Eagles will move on to the second round.

13 Portland State vs. 4 Xavier [7:25 ET]
The Pick: Xavier
-I've got XU in this one, but Portland State has a good chance of pulling off the upset here. The Musketeers have been extremely inconsistent down the stretch. Still, I don't think Portland State has an answer for Derrick Brown.

9 Siena vs. 8 Ohio State [9:40 ET]
The Pick: Siena
-Siena knocked off Duke last year, and the Buckeyes' are in the Saints' crosshairs heading into Friday's matchup. Ohio State has more individual talent, but Siena is greater than the sum of its parts.

13 Cleveland State vs. 4 Wake Forest [9:40 ET]
The Pick: Wake Forest
-Cleveland State could be an upset pick in another matchup. Alas, they drew the Demon Deacons and their roster of NBA prospects. James Johnson, Wake's 6-9 sophomore power forward, has some Chris Webber in his game. Watching him handle the rock is a thing of beauty.

15 Robert Morris vs. 2 Michigan State [9:50 ET]
The Pick: Michigan State
-Robert Morris could give the Spartans trouble. Still, I like Izzo's squad to pull away in the second half of a game that will have State fans on edge.

12 Wisconsin vs. 5 Florida State [9:55 ET]
The Pick: Florida State
-This was the closest call of the first round for me. Wisconsin's methodical half-court set is a nightmare in terms of tourney preparation for non-Big Ten teams. Still, the Seminoles are too long and too athletic for the plodding Badgers. Even if Wisconsin stops up the Florida State attack, expect Toney Douglas to create his own scoring opportunities. Bo Ryan may need to insert a box-in-one for this one.

Quick Notes/Updates

1. I almost cursed Purdue. The coughed up a 12 point lead at the half, and Northern Iowa kept it close the rest of the game. Purdue finally pulled away with a pair of cluth free throws from my dog, Chris Kramer. Purdue played great defense, Northern Iowa just hit some well-guarded threes.
   
2. Mississippi State is off to a rough start against Washington. Jarvis Varnado picked up a second foul early in the first half and Washington has been pounding it inside ever since. State's guards continue to take bad shots and are having trouble against Washington's built-like-a-cornerback guards.
3. UNC and UCONN both equally impressive in first round wins.
   
4. Maryland wins against California in an incredibly annoying way. They still don't prove they belong in the tournament because Cal was falling apart at the end of the season anyway.
   
5. Memphis escaped a close game with Cal-State Fullerton. Memphis showed they were not deserving of a one seed, and will have trouble returning to the Final Four.

March Madness: Round of 64 (Day 1)

9 Butler vs. 8 LSU [12:20 ET]
The Pick: LSU
-LSU should have received a lower seed and will takes its frustration out on an inexperienced Butler squad. Chris Johnson's defense may be the x-factor in this one. Butler has no one that can match his athleticism in the paint.

15 CS Northridge vs. 2 Memphis [12:25 ET]
The Pick: Memphis
-The Matadors should have been a 16 seed. Calipari's Tigers roll in this one-sided affair.

9 Texas A&M vs. 8 BYU [12:30 ET]
The Pick: Texas A&M
-A&M's frontline of Josh Carter, Bryan Davis, and Chinemelu Elongu are too long, too athletic, and too physical for the Cougars. Look for Elongu to rip Lee Cummard's arms off at about the eleven-minute mark in the second half.

12 Northern Iowa vs. 5 Purdue [2:30 ET]
The Pick: Purdue
-Purdue played well in the Big Ten tourney but had an inconsistent season. Expect this one to be close in the first-half. An upset is certainly possible here.

16 Radford vs. 1 North Carolina [2:50 ET]
The Pick: North Carolina
-Ty Lawson's injured toe actually makes this an interesting 1-16 game. And I'm being serious. Plus, I'm looking forward to the matchup between Psycho T and The Kurgan.

10 Maryland vs. 7 California [2:55 ET]
The Pick: California
-With their 7-9 conference record, it's a joke that the Terps even got a bid (let alone a 10 seed). Cal has excellent talent at the 1-4 spots, and that will be enough to get past Greivis Vasquez and company.

16 Chattanooga vs. 1 Connecticut [3:00 ET]
The Pick: Connecticut
-Still trying to figure out how Chattanooga won the Southern Conference tourney. College of Charleston with former Georgia Tech head coach Bobby Cremins at the helm or Davidson with March's favorite son, Stephen Curry, would have made the madness more interesting. Huskies win in a blowout.

13 Mississippi State vs. 4 Washington [5:00 ET]
The Pick: Washington
-Mississippi State is a trendy pick in this one. And while it's true that the Bulldogs' 13 seed is far too high, I wonder if the people picking against Washington have even seen Lorenzo Romar's squad play a full game. Jarvis Varnado doesn't like physical contact, and Jon Brockman loves it. I like the Huskies in this one, but, if the Bulldogs are hitting from behind the arc, an upset is possible.

10 Minnesota vs. 7 Texas [7:10 ET]
The Pick: Texas
-Minnesota simply doesn't have the athletes to match up with the Longhorns. It will be interesting to see how Tubby plays this one, as Rick Barnes' squad is more athletic at 4 of 5 positions.

10 Michigan vs. 7 Clemson [7:10 ET]
The Pick: Clemson
-Michigan's two-man show of Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims is no match for Clemson's get-everyone-involved approach. I look forward to seeing how Oliver Purnell attacks John Beilein's 1-3-1 defense.

14 American U vs. 3 Villanova [7:20 ET]
The Pick: Villanova
-Yes, this is pretty much a home game for the Wildcats, but this one has the potential to be close. The Eagles (yes, that's right, the American Eagles) loss to Tennessee in the first round last year by 15 and won't be shell-shocked by the bright lights of March Madness.

13 Akron vs. 4 Gonzaga [7:25 ET]
The Pick: Gonzaga
-Gonzaga simply has too much talent for the Zips. While Akron has a balanced scoring attack (5 players average between 8 and 12 points per game), I don't think they have anyone capable of the huge performance they will need to get past Mark Few's squad.

15 Binghamton vs. 2 Duke [9:40 ET]
The Pick: Duke
-I know it has become quite popular to write off the Blue Devils in March, but this really could be a competitive game. The “renegade” Binghamton Bearcats have been raked over the coals by the national media for a variety of offenses (a current player was busted for stealing condoms, an ex-player fled to Serbia after allegedly beating a student into a coma, etc.), and they're going to be playing to prove all of their detractors wrong. I ultimately think the Blue Devils win by double-digits, but expect Tony Kornheiser U to play with Coach K's Dukies for a half.

15 Morgan State vs. 2 Oklahoma [9:40 ET]
The Pick: Oklahoma
-Morgan State has a pretty decent squad, but they simply have no answer for Blake Griffin. Jeff Capel would be wise to get his bench some tourney reps.

11 VCU vs. 6 UCLA [9:50 ET]
The Pick: UCLA
-VCU is the favorite upset pick of the college basketball experts. Well, I don't buy it. Eric Maynor is a fantastic point guard and Larry Sanders does have extraordinarily long arms. By the way, what's the over/under on the number of times Sanders' 17-foot wingspan is referenced on Thursday night? Anyway, UCLA is just too experienced for Anthony Grant's team, having been to the Final Four the last three years.

12 Western Kentucky vs. 5 Illinois [9:55 ET]
The Pick: Western Kentucky
-Finally an upset. I'm a regular Barack Obama with all this front-running. The loss of Chester Frazier dooms Bruce Weber and his Fighting Illini. Look for Sun Belt Player of the Year Orlando Mendez-Valdez and his Hilltoppers to pull off a first-round upset for the second consecutive year. If the Hilltoppers pull of the upset, does that mean that WKU has officially taken the University of Kentucky's position as the second most dominant program in the Bluegrass state?

The Quest

My beloved (minus Michael Porter) Kentucky Wildcats are giving up 20 point leads and possession of the basketball in the N(o one cares) I(ncredibly sad) T(ournament) for underachievers. I thought long and hard about not filling out a bracket and even skipping the majority of the tournament games, as well. As those of you who join my in a bracket pool have learned, I changed my mind.

In order to enjoy the best sports season of the year, I would be forced to find a new team worth rooting for in March. It will be a team with a limited purpose, purely for Marches when Kentucky isn't relevant nationally. The hope is for it to be a one time pairing.

I made some conservative picks. Ultimately, I like Louisville, Pitt, and UNC to all make the Final Four. The only one seed I don't particularly like is the Dyson-less, money-hoarding UCONN Huskies. Thabeet doesn't get my blood moving. UCONN will ultimately rely on Adrien, Robinson, Price, and Walker. A good, but not great group. To add some slight intrigue in the West, I'm not a fan of Memphis, either. For the record, I'm never a fan of any team that boasts a road win against Tulsa as their best conference win. While filling, it appeared to me that the Wild West would be the region I would find the team deserving of my March support.

At this point, I'm looking at Mizzou, Washington, and Purdue as possible sleepers emerging from the West. Lorenzo Romar, Mike Anderson, and Matt Painter are all three respectable coaches who are making a case for major openings at the conclusion of the season. The difference is Painter is a Purdue alum, and I don't see him leaving unless it's for a big-time program with the ability to pay upwards of 2 to 3 million a year. Painter gets the advantage.

Mizzou plays at a blinding pace. Washington has speed in Isaiah Thomas, but ultimately tends to play in a half court type game to utilize Brockman. Purdue is from the Big Ten. Mizzou gets the nod in style of play.

I currently live an hour from Mizzou's campus. Purdue is a couple hours from my hometown. I think Washington is in a different country. Purdue gets the nod because I have no allegiance surrounding my current address.

Sidebar: I wanted the analysis of why I chose the new team to be more in-depth but I'm pressed for time and the tournament just started. Sorry, Chris.

After much analysis, debate, and wet-dreaming I narrowed it down to one creamy team:
My team for the tournament, Chris, is

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PURDUE!

Let me explain.

Sidebar: As I'm writing this, Purdue is up 12 on Northern Iowa. It could be more, but Hummel is shooting left-handed.

I like Matt Painter a lot. I think he is one hell of a coach. They have some young talent that should be there for the next two years, just in case I have to come running back next March. E'Twaun Moore and Robbie Hummel are both sophomores who are extremely well-rounded players. Hummel leads the team in rebounding from the small forward position. Chris Kramer is a stud that can lock up almost anyone in the country. He is hard-nosed, played with a face-mask, and dishes out 2.5 assists a game. JaJuan Johnson is really coming along nicely towards the end of the year. He's developed nice hands and a nice 12 foot jumper that kills the weak spot in zones. Nemanja Calasan can get hot from behind the arc and provides offensive spark off the bench. As a whole, Purdue plays great team defense, holding opponents under 60 points a game. I realize they are playing in the offensively-challenged Big Ten, but it's still an accomplishment.

I've got them in the Final Four, knocking out UCONN and Memphis along the way. If they make it, my bracket sets up nicely. I see them having trouble with teams that press as well as Louisville, and accordingly, have them being knocked out by UofL. However, Purdue is poised to make some noise in this tournament and have a group of guys, a coach, and a program that should be easy to get behind. Let's go Boilermakers! I pray I'm not a curse.

Upsets To Stay Away From

Arizona over Utah - Generally, it's not a great idea to pick the last team to receive an at-large bid and is in the midst of an absolutely horrible stretch, winning one of six. They have three talented scores in Budinger, Hill, and Wise, but nothing else. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if these were the only three guys who played. It would explain quite a bit. Utah is senior laden team that guards really well.

Utah State over Marquette - Without Dominic James at point Marquette has won one of six. But take a look at the losses - UConn by 11, UofL by 4, Pitt by 15, Syracuse by 7 in overtime, and Villanova by one. They aren't the same team as they were in the middle of the season, but they should still be able to take care of business against Utah State. Look for Jerel McNeal to have a big time game. It will be his best opportunity.

Wisconson Buzzcuts over Florida State - The Buzzcuts, as Club Trillion founder Mark Titus refers to them, have not been a typical Bo Ryan team this year. Florida St. seems to be playing their best basketball of the season. Wow, that felt odd saying in March. Florida St. appears to be taking halfway decent shots and the medusa head of Toney Douglas and his comrades is a difficult task for any team to guard.

Minnesota over Texas - Quite possibly the two most antithetical teams in the tournament playing each other in the first round. Expect a Texas romp in this one. Minnesota has had trouble dealing with athletically superior teams all year. Minnesota struggles to find scoring, regardless of the opponent. Texas can only beat itself in this game.

The Contenders (11 of Them)

Tier 1

Louisville

Why They Can Win It All: One of the deepest (and healthiest) teams in America. Four Cardinals – Edgar Sosa, Jerry Smith, Andre McGee, and Preston Knowles – get significant run in the backcourt. Terrence Williams, Earl Clark, Samardo Samuels, and Terrence Jennings form a talented frontcourt rotation. And Rick Pitino isn't afraid to go deeper into bench if his top eight aren't producing. As the Cards' pressing defense is their biggest strength, this depth is integral to their success.

Why They Can't: While they have a pair of point forwards in T-Will and E5 (two of the most creative nicknames ever), the Cards' lack of a true point guard will be their ultimate demise. Sosa is a two-guard in a point guard's body, and McGee and Knowles are ineffective on the offensive end at best. History tells us that past champions have almost always featured a capable point guard that protects the ball and dictates pace. Oh, and the Cards also have trouble shooting free throws.

North Carolina

Why They Can Win It All: The Tar Heels are the most talented team in the country. Even with their injury woes, UNC is adequately deep and starts four All-American-type talents (Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green, and Tyler Hansbrough). Deon Thompson isn't too bad either. It will be hard for anyone to match Roy Williams' squad in terms of sheer firepower.

Why They Can't: Ty Lawson's toe and a lack of defensive intensity. Ol' Roy's squad can make a deep run without Lawson, but there's no way they win a championship without him. The Tar Heels are much better defenders than they are given credit for, but the lapses in concentration on the defensive end are worrisome. The tournament is not the time to suddenly develop the intestinal fortitude to play forty minutes of defense.

Pittsburgh

Why They Can Win It All: The Panthers are the most physical team in college basketball. They beat up their opponents with rough play in the post and lockdown defense on the perimeter. Every single member of Jamie Dixon's squad defends, and, with the exception of their recent loss to Providence, Pitt plays with purpose every night. They've been in tourney mode all season.

Why They Can't: When DeJuan Blair gets in foul trouble, this team really struggles. And with Pitt's physical style of play, there's a good chance Blair finds himself on the bench at some point. This may seem like digging for a reason to discount Pitt's chances, but Blair sets the tone for the Panthers and the team's identity is inextricably tied to his play. When Blair is out, this team looks lost.

Tier 2

Connecticut

Why They Can Win It All: Their frontline of Hasheem Thabeet, Jeff Adrien, and Stanley Robinson is second to none. Adrien is an absolute warrior. Robinson, the Huskies' 6-9 small forward is a matchup nightmare. And Thabeet is the most dominating force in college basketball. (Yes, even more dominating than Blake Griffin.) The tournament is all about quick turnaround in terms of preparation. And while everyone tweaks their defensive strategies to counter the opposition's offensive strengths, Thabeet requires opponents to change their offensive game plan – not an easy task this late in the season.

Why They Can't: The bench (or more accurately, the lack thereof). With Jerome Dyson's injury, the Huskies are limited to a seven-man rotation. I'm a firm believer that even an eight-man rotation is dangerously thin for a team trying to win six straight games in quick succession. Moreover, Dyson was the Huskies most dangerous perimeter scoring threat. Freshman Kemba Walker and senior Craig Austrie are going to have to increase their offensive output.

Michigan State

Why They Can Win It All: Rebounding and defense. It's become almost cliché to talk about the toughness of a Tom Izzo-coached team, but 08-09 Spartans fit the description. And while no one expects the champion to emerge from the Big Ten – a conference where the basketball is looking less and less like the game the rest of the country is playing – the Spartans, unlike their conference foes, actually have the firepower to light up the scoreboard.

Why They Can't: The Spartans lack a dynamic scorer capable of creating his own shot. Kalin Lucas is a facilitator, but he's not going to drop 20 on the opposition. Raymar Morgan has been disappointing and isn't that effective with the ball in his hands. Based on senior Goran Suton's numbers, his offensive development hit a ceiling during his junior campaign. And while Durrell Summers may eventually become that player for Tom Izzo, he's not nearly consistent enough to fill that void at this point in his career.

Oklahoma

Why They Can Win It All: Perhaps the country's most complete starting five. The Sooners' lineup features the best player in the country and arguably the top freshman. And, importantly, the two compliment one another. The attention Blake Griffin attracts in the post allows super-frosh Willie Warren to operate more freely on the perimeter. Austin Johnson, the Sooners' 6-4 senior point guard, is a crafty playmaker who excels at finding his teammates in scoring position without dominating the ball. Tyler Griffin is a banger and an excellent interior passer. And Tony Crocker shoots the three and wears a long-sleeved shirt under his jersey.

Why They Can't: A very inexperienced bench. Jeff Capel has done a decent job of patiently expanding his rotation, but it would be a stretch to call the Sooner reserves tournament-ready. Cade Davis is a solid contributer, but Juan Pattillo is the only impact player Capel can turn to in a pinch.

Wake Forest

Why They Can Win It All: No team has more upside than the Demon Deacons. NBA-caliber athletes litter Dino Guadio's roster. In fact, Jeff Teague, Al-Farouq Aminu, and James Johnson give Wake three lottery-caliber talents. L.D. Williams and Chas McFarland, while not as gifted as the headliners, also create matchup problems with their size and strength.

Why They Can't: It is highly unusual that a team that didn't even get invited to the dance one year leaves belle of the ball the next. Guadio's top three players are sophomores or younger, and that rarely equates to postseason success.

Tier 3

Clemson

Why They Can Win It All: Perhaps no squad in America epitomizes the concept of team more than the Clemson Tigers. These guys seem to genuinely enjoy playing with one another, and I don't think there's a destructive ego among them. Moreover, each Tiger has a clearly defined role. Power forward Trevor Booker is the first option on offense (not to mention one of the best defenders in the ACC). And I must say – it's refreshing to a see a team that voluntarily gets its big man touches on almost every possession. No arm-twisting. No barking from the sideline. No ill-advised threes while the post talent has his man pinned on the block. Rather, the Tigers look to the post like it's second nature. Swingman K.C. Rivers guards the opponent's best perimeter scorer and slashes to the hoop. Terrence Oglesby provides the long-range game. Raymond Sykes is the Tigers' hype man. He's active on the glass and cleans up his teammates' misfires. Demontez Stitt is the glue guy who does the dirty work.

Why They Can't: This team truly has reached its potential. Clemson is a good team but not a great one. They lack a dynamic scorer, and they don't have a point guard that can impose his will on the pace of the game. Just not enough talent to do much damage in March.

Duke

Why They Can Win It All: The Blue Devils are extremely talented and very deep at the 1-4 spots with Nolan Smith, Greg Paulus, Elliot Williams, Jon Scheyer, Gerald Henderson, and Kyle Singler. Equally effective in the half-court set or in transition, scoring is not a problem for these marksmen. And in terms of perimeter defense, Purdue may be their only competition. It would also be difficult to find a more intelligent group of basketball players. And while some of them are limited athletically, a Smith-Williams-Henderson-Singler lineup is going to hold its own against anyone.

Why They Can't: Absolutely no post presence. Singler lines up at the four, but he plays like a three. He's all finesse and angles. And while Singler can block the occasional shot, post scorers with size and explosion wreak havoc on Duke's vanilla frontline defenders. And on offense, Coach K has no one to pound the ball into when the shots aren't falling.

Memphis

Why They Can Win It All: It's time we stop doubting John Calipari's program and start realizing that Memphis puts high-quality product on the floor every year. The names may be different, but the results are the same. The nation's most talented freshman piloting a Memphis squad that is angling for a one seed. Sound familiar? And like Derrick Rose last year, Tyreke Evans is far from a one-man show. Senior Antonio Anderson and Robert Dozier are back after briefly flirting with turning pro after last year's runner-up finish. Shawn Taggart starts at the five, and he's actually more reliable and versatile on offense than his predecessor, Joey Dorsey. Doneal Mack may not be Chris Douglas-Roberts, but he's proven to be an instinctual scorer in his own right.

Why They Can't: Beating up on the wasteland that is Conference-USA basketball doesn't prepare a team for March Madness. Memphis may be confident, but most teams would be emboldened beating up on the Marshalls and Southern Misses of the world.

Villanova

Why They Can Win It All: Jay Wright has four guys capable of creating their own shot – combo guards Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher, wing Corey Stokes, and power forward Dante Cunningham. In terms of sheer offensive versatility, few teams can match Villanova. College basketball is a guard's game, and Villanova has three that can take over a game. Plus, their best player may be Cunningham, giving them a true post threat.

Why They Can't: Scoring has never been the problem for Jay Wright's teams, and, even though this year's version of Wildcats' guard-heavy lineup is better on the defensive end than in years past, it's still nowhere near national champion-caliber defense. Sure, the Big East is tough, but why would anyone expect a team that could finish no better than fourth in their own conference to win the National Championship?

Luke Winn Unearths Club Trillion

Luke Winn is quickly becoming one of my favorite sportswriters. Winn has an undeniable penchant for identifying and expounding upon the absurdities found in the world of college basketball. In the most recent issue of Sports Illustrated, Winn penned an article about Louisville's Terrence Williams, which included a variety of T-Will tidbits. My personal favorites: that T-Will wore a Barbi backpack in high school to be different and that, in his high school lunchroom, he would tell classmates, "You've got to come strong to your mouth," before knocking sandwiches out of their hands. After discussing the article with a good friend of mine who is a Louisville native, he informed me that he saw T-Will in Louisville recently wearing a jacket with a spray-painted image of his own face on it. Needless to say, all of this is awesome.

Back to Winn. Winn's most recent contribution to SI.com is an article entitled "Fifty Thoughts on Selection Sunday." You can read it here. The entire article is worth reading, but what really grabbed my attention is Winn's endorsement of Club Trillion as the nation's hottest tournament blog. Club Trillion: Life Views from the End of the Bench is the brainchild (if you can call it that) of Ohio State reserve Mark Titus. Titus' blog is quite amusing, and I highly recommend this entry in which Titus tries to determine who is the whitest Buckeye and why. Ultimately, Titus determines that he, in fact, is the whitest team member -- though he adds that, if Evan Turner was not black, he would be the whitest because he wears scarves and listens to John Mayer. Titus' analysis is thorough, as he provides a link to a photo of a shirt worn by a player during a formal outing that disqualifies him from consideration, discusses the lack of Dale Earnhardt tattoos on one of his teammates, and includes a confusing reference to Grandma Winslow's back hair (the old lady from the Urkel show).

The Bubble Picture

Here's my take on the bubble heading into Selection Sunday.

My Last 6 In:

Auburn
-Auburn went 10-6 in conference. Yes, it was a down year in the SEC. Still, are you really going to put 9-9 Big Ten teams in over a 10-6 SEC squad? My guess is that, yes, in fact, that is exactly what the Committee will do.

South Carolina
-The same analysis applies to South Carolina. Auburn may sneak in, but I think the Committee will leave the Gamecocks out.

Texas A&M
-A&M went 9-7 in the Big 12 and finished strong. The only reason I have them this far down is the Aggies' loss to lowly Texas Tech in the Big 12 tourney. I think A&M is a lock at this point.

Penn State
-Penn State deserves the nod over both Michigan and Minnesota based on the Nittany Lions' 10-8 conference record. While they split with both Michigan and Minnesota, PSU boasts wins over both Michigan State and Purdue. Plus, they swept Illinois.

San Diego State
-I believe there is a clear line of demarcation between Penn State and San Diego State. Penn State and above deserve to get in, and, if they don't, they have a right to be angry. From San Diego State and below, however, I can see the arguments for all sides. As for the Aztecs, they finished in fourth place in the Mountain West, though only one game out of a tie for first. They also beat UNLV three times and made it to their conference tourney championship game before falling to Utah by two. Steve Fisher of Fab Five fame may be dancing once again.

Saint Mary's
-SMC just gets my last at-large bid. While I'm not sure Patty Mills has fully recovered from his hand injury, the Gaels have put together a nice season. While SMC lost to conference rival Gonzaga three times, they have wins over Kansas State and fellow bubble-dwellers San Diego State and Providence.

*Note: If Mississippi State upsets Tennessee tomorrow, there will be one less at-large bid. In that case, Saint Mary's will be NIT-bound, and San Diego State will be headed to the Dance as my last at-large bid (despite the Aztecs head-to-head loss to the Gaels. However, I reserve the right to revisit the SMC versus SDSt debate prior to the Selection Show.

My First 7 Out:

Michigan
-Michigan has non-conference wins over both Duke and UCLA. While these feats are impressive, some perspective may be in order. Michigan had two shots at Duke, and won once. And the 08-09 version of UCLA is not as talented as Bruins squads in years past. Michigan did sweep Minnesota in Big Ten play and, so, will most likely get the nod over the Gophers if it comes down to those two. I just can't get past Michigan's .500 conference record (even in a deep Big Ten conference).

Minnesota
-I actually think Minnesota is a better team than Michigan and a number of the other bubble-dwellers. Unfortunately, I think the Gophers' profile comes up just short of an at-large bid. With the exception of their win over Louisville, their non-conference resume is pretty empty. They played well in conference but got swept by Michigan and finished 9-9. I won't be shocked if they get in, but they don't have much to be upset about if they get left out.

Providence
-Before the season started, I'm pretty sure no one thought it possible that a team could finish 10-8 in Big East play and not make the tourney. Well, that's what we're looking at with the Friars. Providence's non-conference schedule was soft and unimpressive. They have wins over Pitt and Syracuse (and they swept Cincy), but their conference record was inflated by wins over the Big East's least talented teams.

New Mexico
-Steve Alford's club finished in a three-way tie for the Mountain West regular season title. Unfortunately for the Lobos, they have some bad non-conference losses and got knocked out of their conference tourney by Wyoming.

Arizona
-I actually won't be too upset if the Wildcats get a bid. The Wildcats have a nice profile in terms of non-conference wins (San Diego State, Gonzaga, and Kansas), but their conference play was lackluster (9-9 in an average Pac-10). With USC giving the Pac-10 a fifth representative, Arizona's bubble may have burst.

Florida
-The Gators have a ton of talent, and they finished with a winning record in conference play. However, there's no way the SEC gets five bids (and that's even if Mississippi State wins tomorrow and the conference deserves five bids), and Florida is clearly fifth in terms of SEC pecking order at this point.

Creighton
-Yes, Creighton finished the season winning 11 of their last 12, but that one loss really gets me -- a 73-49 defeat at the hands of Illinois State in the Missouri Valley tourney. Plus, with the exception of a win over Dayton, the Bluejays don't have much in terms of non-conference resume.

*Note: The above teams are really the only ones that I believe deserve serious consideration.

Mistake the Selection Committee is Destined to Make:

Maryland
-If Maryland gets in, something is seriously wrong. The Terps finished 7-9 in conference play. I have trouble imagining a scenario where a team that finishes below .500 in conference play deserves to play for the national championship. Gary Williams' squad has non-conference wins over Michigan and Michigan State, but they also lost to Morgan State, Gonzaga by 22, and Georgetown by 27. In ACC play, the Terps beat UNC in February and Wake during the conference tourney. They closed out their regular season losing to Virginia. Against the ACC's top six teams (the one's with winning records in conference play), the Terps are 2-8 (and that's including their conference tourney win over Wake). This is not a tournament team. It blows my mind that they are even getting consideration. That being said, expect the Selection Committee to give Maryland an at-large bid.

Perfect Storm Brewing in Memphis

With all eyes focused on Championship Week, Joe Lunardi, and the impending March Madness, recruiting has taken something of a backseat in the general roundball consciousness. Well, we may want to redirect our gazes (even if only briefly) to the world of blue chip recruits, AAU tournaments, and Sonny Vaccaro-type peddlers of fortune. Developments with the potential to shake the college basketball landscape are taking place in southwestern Tennessee.

On November 18, Xavier Henry, a 6-6 210-pounder rated as the third best player in the 2009 high school class and the nation's top two-guard, signed on as just the latest of John Calipari's high-profile, highly-skilled recruits. In doing so, Henry follows in the footsteps of Dajuan Wagner, Derrick Rose, and most recently, Tyreke Evans. One-and-dones (or probable one-and-dones) who selected the friendly confines of Conference-USA and Calipari's free-wheeling, improvisational dribble-drive offense to showcase their lucrative talents during a mandatory pit stop on their way to the Promised Land.

Yesterday, DeMarcus Cousins, a 6-9 250-pound native of Mobile, Alabama, decided that he would also spend a year in Memphis. Cousins is considered the second best player in class of 2009 and is widely regarded as the best power forward and post player in the country. So, if you're keeping count, that means Calipari has wrapped up two of the top three recruits from this year's graduating class. Cousins originally said he would attend UAB. However, after UAB refused Cousins' request for an escape clause that would allow Cousins to get out of his letter of intent if head coach Mike Davis should leave or be fired, he reopened his recruiting.

The final piece of the puzzle is Raleigh Word of God Christian Academy point guard John Wall. Wall, the number one player in all of high school basketball is still weighing his college options, and Memphis is on his short list. Rumor has it that Wall will reveal his intentions at the McDonald's All-American game.

Field of 65--Version 8

1) North Carolina (27-3); Pittsburgh (28-3); Connecticut (27-3); Oklahoma (27-4)
Barring disaster in their conference tournaments, UNC, Pitt, and UConn have secured one seeds. Oklahoma's perch is more precarious. With Kansas taking the Big 12 regular season crown, the Sooners probably have to reach the Big 12 tourney championship to keep their one seed.
2) Louisville (25-5); Memphis (28-3); Michigan State (25-5);
Wake Forest (25-5)
The Cardinals win the regular season title in what is arguably the strongest conference in the history of college basketball and still don't get a one seed. What will it take for them to move up a line? Probably an early Big East tourney exit by either Pitt or UConn coupled with Louisville winning the conference tournament.
3) Duke (25-6); Kansas (25-6); Washington (24-7); Missouri (25-6)
There is a clear drop-off between Kansas and Washington. The first two on the three line could easily grab a two seed, while the second two need strong conference tourney showings to maintain their current seeding.
4) Villanova (25-6); Clemson (23-7); UCLA (24-7); Gonzaga (25-5)
Gonzaga has won 17 of its last 18, and the Bulldogs are undefeated in a pretty competitive West Coast Conference. I still say this is Mark Few's most talented squad (but not nearly his toughest or most cohesive).
5) LSU (25-6); Arizona State (22-8); Xavier (24-6); Purdue (22-9)
Xavier has put together a nice season but have been inconsistent of late. They wrapped up the Atlantic-10 regular season title this past week and avenged their February 11 loss to Dayton. But Sean Miller's club has lost four of their last ten, including their season finale to a middling Richmond squad. Had they beaten Duquesne, Charlotte, and Richmond during this ten-game span (and they should have), a three seed would have been theirs for the taking.
6) Florida State (23-8); Marquette (23-8); Syracuse (23-8); California (22-9)
Marquette is reeling after senior point guard Dominic James' season-ending injury. Buzz Williams' team finished its regular season on a four-game losing streak, doubling their season loss total in the process. While the span included games against Big East powers UConn, Louisville, Pitt, and Syracuse, one has to question whether Marquette can regroup for the postseason. An early exit from the Big East tournament could mean an eight or nine seed for the Golden Eagles.
7) Butler (26-4); Illinois (23-8); Texas (20-10);
West Virginia (21-10)
Butler will face off against Cleveland State for the Horizon League tournament championship. A loss for the Bulldogs would hurt their seeding but not their tournament hopes.
8) Dayton (25-6); BYU (24-6); Ohio State (20-9);
Boston College (21-10)
As the Selection Committee tends to place more emphasis on what a team has done in the latter part of the season, it will be interesting to see what it does with Ohio State. By any measurement, the Buckeyes are tourney-worthy. But Ohio State's profile is significantly bolstered by a three-game stretch in early December that saw the Buckeyes knock off Miami, Notre Dame, and Butler in consecutive games. And to make matters more complicated, junior David Lighty, who subsequently suffered a season-ending injury, played an important role in each of those games.
9) Utah State (27-4); Tennessee (19-11); Wisconsin (19-11);
Utah (21-9)
Another inconsistent week for Bruce Pearl's Volunteers. After improving its profile by completing the sweep of South Carolina in Columbia earlier in the week, Tennessee lost to a struggling Alabama sqaud in Knoxville.
10) South Carolina (21-8); Penn State (21-10); Texas A&M (23-8); Saint Mary's (25-5)
Penn State may very well have punched its ticket to the dance. The Nittany Lions' non-conference schedule was both soft and unimpressive (losses to Rhode Island and Temple), but their conference play has been solid – especially against the Big Ten's top three. Penn State swept Illinois and also has a win apiece over Michigan State and Purdue. Ed DeChellis' team would be an at-large lock if not for a letdown in the season finale at Iowa. Still, it looks like the Nittany Lions and the Big Ten's leading scorer, Talor Battle (17.3 ppg), will be dancing in March.
11) Arizona (19-12); Michigan (19-12); Minnesota (21-9); Providence (18-12)
Providence likely needs to win at least one game in the Big East tourney to have a chance at an at-large bid. Sure, the Friars are 10-8 in conference play, but, of those ten wins, only two came against teams that finished in the top eight in the Big East standings (Pitt and Syracuse). Providence did sweep ninth-place Cincinnati – who the Friars will likely face for a third time in the Big East tourney.
12) Auburn (21-10); New Mexico (21-10); Northern Iowa (23-10); VCU (23-9)
Jeff Lebo's balanced Auburn Tigers are peaking down the stretch, having won eight of their last ten. Oh, and the two teams they lost to during that period (LSU and Ole Miss), they also beat during that span. For Auburn to have a realistic chance at an at-large bid, though, they may have to reach the SEC final. New Mexico gets the final at-large bid. The first four out, in alphabetical order – Creighton, Davidson, Florida, Oklahoma State.
13) Western Kentucky (21-8); Siena (25-7);
College of Charleston (26-7); American U (23-7)
After beating Davidson in the Southern Conference semis, former Georgia Tech head coach Bobby Cremins and his College of Charleston Cougars are a win over Chattanooga away from dancing in March. The Cougars now have two wins over Steph Curry and company and an early season victory over South Carolina.
14) Bowling Green (17-12); North Dakota State (24-6);
Stephen F. Austin (21-7); Weber State (21-8)
North Dakota State has reached the semifinals of the Summit League tourney and is now two wins away from earning a tournament bid in just their first year of eligibility.
15) Binghamton (22-8); East Tennessee State (23-10);
Robert Morris (23-10); Radford (21-11)
Radford, who just punched its ticket by winning the Big South tournament, presents some serious matchup problems. Artsiom Parakhouski, the Highlanders' 6-11 260-pound import from Belarus, averages 16.3 points and 11.2 rebounds per game. Radford's frontline also features Joey Lynch-Flohr, a 6-8 221-pounder, who averages 13.7 points per contest. In a nod to the 1986 film Highlander, starring Christopher Lambert, I demand that the media refer to Radford's twin towers as MacLeod (Lynch-Flohr) and The Kurgan (Parakhouski). So, for instance, ESPN's Tom Brennan could say, “The Kurgan went for 39 points and 19 boards against Liberty in the Highlanders' regular season finale.” I like it. Needless to say, you don't want to mash bodies in the paint with the Highlanders. Nor do you want to challenge the Highlanders to a duel to the death – you know, because of the whole immortality thing.
16) Morgan State (20-11); Cornell (21-9); Alabama State (19-9); Morehead State (19-15); Cal State Northridge (15-13)
Cornell will be dancing in March thanks to the Big Red's finish atop the Ivy League regular season standings. The Ivy League does not have a conference tournament. In fact, the Ivy League laughs at the juvenile excitement exhibited by the rest of the country during Championship Week. Just as we laugh at their pathetic attempts to play basketball.