Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Notes: Big Ten/ACC Challenge


1. I see you, Indiana. Off to a 7-0 start, Tom Crean's squad is playing like a team that could make a run at a NCAA tournament bid. When Mo Creek went down with his third serious injury since arriving in Bloomington prior to the start of the season, it looked like another long year was in store for the Hoosiers. While Indiana was expected to be more competitive, a run at the NCAA tourney seemed out of reach. After beating a solid NC State team in Raleigh, though, the Hoosiers appear to be, dare I say it, a good basketball team. While the Big Ten's performance the last couple nights suggests the Big Ten may, in fact, be able to challenge the Big East for conference supremacy, I actually like the Hoosiers' chances of finishing in the top half of the conference. Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and probably Michigan look definitively better than the Hoosiers. Minnesota gutted out a victory over Virginia Tech tonight, but Tubby Smith's team is going to struggle without Trevor Mbakwe. I'm not sold on Illinois. And Northwestern and Purdue look comparable to the Hoosiers. Indiana has six quality players in Cody Zeller, Victor Oladipo. Will Sheehey (one of the more underrated players in the country), Christian Watford, Jordan Hulls, and Verdell Jones. They've got a couple of nice roll players to go along with their core six, and I like freshman Remy Abell going forward. To get an idea of just how much the talent level has improved at Indiana since Tom Crean arrived, consider big man Tom Pritchard. A steady post player who was arguably one of the Hoosiers best players as a freshman when he averaged 29 minutes and almost 10 points per contest, he's now a senior averaging playing just over 9 minutes a night. It's possible Crean will need Pritchard when conference play begins. I expect the Hoosiers' Achilles' heel to be their rebounding. While Zeller possesses an even better offensive game than I expected, he's going to get pushed around by Big Ten bigs. Christian Watford, another nice offensive player, hasn't shown much interest in hitting the glass and is limited athletically. Those worries can wait for now, though, as the Hoosier faithful have cause for optimism for the first time in three long years.

2. Despite falling to the Tar Heels by 3 in Chapel Hill, Wisconsin looks very good. Heading into the night, the Badgers owned the nation's second best defensive efficiency rating (according to Ken Pomeroy). The Badgers' defense frustrated the Tar Heels early. And, as has become customary, previously unheralded Badgers have stepped into leading roles for Bo Ryan. This year, it's Ben Brust, Jared Berggren, and Ryan Evans who have provided support to the nation's best point guard, Jordan Taylor. (Josh Gasser and Mike Bruesewitz also return after playing significant minutes last year.) I'm especially impressed by Berggren who finished with 14 points, 5 rebounds (3 offensive), and 3 steals and looked like he belonged on the same stage as Tyler Zeller and John Henson. Bottom line - Bo Ryan reloads in Madison every year. If tonight's game is on a neutral floor, that's likely a Badger victory.

3. North Carolina has issues. They beat a very good Wisconsin team tonight and deserve credit for that. Not every night is going to be a blow out, especially when facing a top 10 opponent. However, if you've watched the Tar Heels this season, you know they look out of sync and, at times, uninspired. Carolina looks like an impressive collection of individual talent, but the Heels have yet to look like a dominant team. That may seem like unfair criticism for a team ranked 5th in the nation who now has wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State (and whose only loss is to a good UNLV squad in Las Vegas). I'm not suggesting ol' Roy won't right the ship. I'm just pointing out that this isn't what we expected when we saw UNC's roster before the season began.

4. Michigan State knocked off a good Florida State team tonight in a matchup of two of the best defenses in the country. After the Spartans closed out a disappointing 2010-11 campaign and opened up this season with back-to-back losses to North Carolina and Duke, I think some of us may have written off the Spartans. That may have been premature. They looked good against a stingy Seminoles squad, and Izzo's team has a lot of upside. Draymond Green, averaging a double-double to go along with 3 assists per game, is the Spartans best player, but it's State's young guys who will decide the type of season the Spartans will have. Sophomores Keith Appling and Adreian Payne look much-improved, and freshman Branden Dawson could be special. I'm no longer sleeping on the Spartans.

5. The Big Ten's 8-4 advantage gave the conference its third consecutive Challenge victory. One bright spot for the ACC was Virginia's victory over a ranked Michigan squad. Rather than being a case of Michigan being overrated, I came away from the matchup thinking I had underestimated Virginia. A number of pundits had picked Tony Bennett's Cavaliers to finish in the top half of the ACC. I picked them to finish seventh but really didn't think Bennett had the personnel to make a run at the NCAA tourney. In what appears to be a weak ACC, the Cavs look like the fourth best team in the ACC (despite a neutral court loss to TCU). Mike Scott, the Cavs' All-ACC forward, looks like a new man after losing 20 pounds. He's averaging 15 and 10 and may make a run at conference player of the year.

No comments:

Post a Comment