Sunday, January 18, 2009
Field of 65--Version 1
This is the first installment in what will be a series of posts projecting the tournament field. The team with the best conference record in each conference receives an automatic bid, regardless of their overall record. Without further ado, the field of 65...
1) Wake Forest (16-0); Connecticut (16-1); Pittsburgh (16-1); Oklahoma (17-1)
I knew Wake was talented but had no idea the Demon Deacons would be contending for a national title this year. Dino Gaudio has to be in the Coach of the Year discussion at this point.
2) Duke (16-1); North Carolina (16-2); Michigan State (15-2); Marquette (16-2)
Like last year's version, this Duke squad defends the perimeter as well as anyone in the country. However, the Blue Devils still lack anything resembling a post threat on the offensive end of the floor.
3) Clemson (16-1); Syracuse (17-2); UCLA (14-3); Texas (13-4)
While UCLA has impressive overall talent, they lack explosive athleticism and a go-to post scorer -- which may mean that a fourth straight trip to the Final 4 is not in the cards. Still, I'm not going to be the one to count out a Ben Howland-coached team.
4) Louisville (13-3); Georgetown (12-4); Xavier (15-2); California (15-3)
I thought Georgetown might be a year away from contending for a Final 4 berth, but the Hoyas are even better than their record suggests. Greg Monroe is as talented as advertised, and, with the Hoyas starting to develop a bench, the sky is the limit.
5) Arizona State (15-3); Baylor (14-3); Butler (16-1); Minnesota (16-2)
If Louisville and Kentucky fans were frustrated with their respective programs for missing out on Chris Lofton's services, then they might not want to watch any Butler games for the next four years. Lexington native Shelvin Mack's game is nasty.
6) Memphis (14-3); Saint Mary's (17-1); Florida State (15-3); Florida (16-2)
Florida State is my sleeper team at this point in the season, despite being coached by Leonard Hamilton. The Seminoles are flying under the radar and compiling an impressive resume in the process (out of conference wins against Cincinnati, California, and Florida and a 2-1 record so far in conference). Their only losses have come against Pitt, Duke, and a competitive Northwestern team. Toney Douglas may be the Seminoles' big offensive threat, but I'm more impressed with (or perhaps intrigued by) freshman Chris Singleton.
7) Kansas (13-4); Notre Dame (12-5); Purdue (14-4); Illinois (15-3)
This past week was not a good one for the Fighting Irish, as they lost at Louisville and then at Syracuse, leaving them with a 12-5 record. The Irish's next 3 games -- UConn, Marquette, and Pitt. That's followed by trips to Cincinnati and UCLA, and then they get Louisville at home.
8) Ohio State (13-3); Gonzaga (12-4); Kentucky (14-4); Villanova (14-3)
Villanova is the 8th best team in the Big East and would likely win the SEC. Still, I don't think the Big East is quite as good as they are getting credit for (about 3 bad teams at the bottom of that conference with a few so-so ones), and I don't think the SEC is as bad as some pundits have suggested (Georgia, Auburn, and injury-riddled Ole Miss are the only push-overs).
9) Washington (13-4); Missouri (15-3); Dayton (16-2); Davidson (14-3)
Hard to find a better post combo than Mizzou's DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons. The Tigers just need some scoring help from the perimeter.
10) Michigan (13-5); Texas A&M (15-3); Miami (13-4); Wisconsin (12-5)
Pretty incredible that Jim Beilein has made the Wolverines respectable again in just his second season at the helm. Perhaps the most underrated one-two punch in the nation -- Michigan point guard Manny Harris (18.8 points, 7.6 boards, and 4.8 assists per game), and power forward DeShawn Sims (15.6 points and 7.9 boards per outing).
11) Tennessee (11-5); BYU (14-3); West Virginia (13-4); Oklahoma State (12-4)
Travis Ford has done an excellent job with an Oklahoma State program that still seems undermanned in terms of numbers. The Cowboys just don't have a bench, and that's why I really doubt Oklahoma State will be able to sustain its current success.
12) Utah State (17-1); Stanford (12-3); George Mason (14-3); Utah (12-6)
Due to its strength of schedule, Utah State has little room for error, but here's hoping the selection committee pays attention to what the Aggies are doing.
13) Northern Iowa (12-6); Siena (14-5); Western Kentucky (12-6); Stephen F. Austin (11-4)
Western Kentucky and Arkansas-Little Rock have identical conference records, and UALR actually has a better overall record, but the Hilltoppers get the bid by virtue of their head-to-head victory over Derek Fisher's alma mater.
14) Portland State (14-5); VMI (14-3); North Dakota State (12-5); Long Beach State (10-7)
Portland State went to Spokane and beat Gonzaga on its home floor. Now if only they could find a way to topple mighty Weber State.
15) Cornell (11-6); American University (11-6); Robert Morris (12-7); Austin Peay (10-7)
Cornell looks like the team to beat in the Ivy League, but the media has to be keeping their fingers crossed for Harvard and all of their intriguing storylines to unseat the Big Red. After all, their best player is Asian-American point guard Jeremy Lin, and their head coach is Tommy Amaker, Michigan's former skipper -- whose recruiting tactics, by the way, have been called into question as not being up to Ivy League standards.
16) Alabama State (8-7); Hampton (9-8); Jacksonville (8-8); New Hampshire (7-8); Western Michigan (6-10)
Hampton gets the bid from the MEAC, but Morgan State owns the conference's most impressive victory -- a 1-point win on Maryland's home court.
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