2012 NBA Mock Draft

Picks represent who teams should take.  This is not an attempt to project which players teams will actually select.

1) NOH - Anthony Davis, Kentucky
In a class all by himself.

2) CHA - Thomas Robinson, Kansas
See the Captain's take on why Robinson is the right choice for the Bobcats.

3) WAS - Bradley Beal, Florida
I really like Beal, but, with talk of OKC and the Spurs trying to obtain early picks in order to select the Florida freshman, we may be reaching a point where expectations for Beal are becoming unrealistic.

4) CLE - Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky
Harrison Barnes is a better shooter, but I am confident MKG is better in every other area.

5) SAC - Dion Waiters, Syracuse
Despite similarities to both Marcus Thornton and Tyreke Evans, Waiters, who I believe is the fifth best player in the draft, is the pick, as he provides stingy defense, toughness, and the ability to get to the hole.

6) POR - Andre Drummond, Connecticut
I have serious doubts about Drummond, but his measurements and athletic ability are hard to ignore at the six spot when the Blazers have the eleventh pick in their back pocket.

7) GSW - Harrison Barnes, North Carolina
I can get behind Barnes as the seventh pick, but I am just not convinced he adds anything other than outside shooting.

8) TOR - Jeremy Lamb, Connecticut
Lamb is a natural scorer with length, and I think his game translates well to the NBA.

9) DET - Meyers Leonard, Illinois
Young Meyers has some maturity issues he needs to work through, but he is also a really nice athlete with a big frame that looks like it is going to fill out.

10) NOH - Kendall Marshall, North Carolina
I would not fault the Hornets if they went with more length (i.e., Moe Harkless, Terrence Jones, or Tyler Zeller), but I think pairing Marshall with Davis would work out extremely well for Monty Williams' club.

11) POR - Damian Lillard, Weber State
I am finally coming around to the idea of Lillard being a lottery pick (for the point guard-deficient Blazers at least), but, as a shoot-first point guard from a mid-major who is too undersized to play the two, I would not criticize the Blazers for passing on the Weber State product.

12) HOU - Tyler Zeller, North Carolina
Can see him being a solid (but not spectacular) starting center for years.

13) PHX - Terrence Ross, Washington
The Suns need a two-guard and preferably one that can shoot.

14) MIL - Moe Harkless, St. John's
Harkless is one of my favorite players in the draft, and I love his instincts on the offensive end.

15) PHI - Terrence Jones, Kentucky
When Terrence Jones falls outside of the lottery, you know you are dealing with a ridiculously deep draft.

16) HOU - Jared Sullinger, Ohio State
If the Rockets keep all three of their first-round picks (though I cannot imagine they will), they can afford to roll the dice on Sully's supposedly balky back.

17) DAL - Marquis Teague, Kentucky
Teague is a more physically imposing version of his older brother, and that is a good thing - especially for the Mavs, who look like they are not going to be luring Deron Williams to Dallas and may be operating without Jason Kidd at the helm next season.

18) HOU - Austin Rivers, Duke
Doc's son was impressive during his single season in Durham, but I am not convinced that he adds wins to the team that drafts him or that anyone wants to play with him.

19) ORL - Perry Jones, Baylor
If Dwight Howard leaves, the cupboard will be bare in Orlando, which is why the Magic take the most talented player left on the board.

20) DEN - Arnett Moultrie, Mississippi State
When you have a team full of inconsistent weirdos, sometimes it makes sense to take a blue collar/hard hat/Coors Light type of guy.

21) BOS - Will Barton, Memphis
I am super high on this skinny stat-stuffer, and I think he is a steal for Boston with the twenty-first pick.

22) BOS - Royce White, Iowa State
After reading Grantland's recent piece on White, I am convinced that the problem with selecting him is not that he is dealing with anxiety issues but rather that he is a prima donna who is going to be extremely high maintenance.

23) ATL - Quincy Miller, Baylor
Love his length; love his upside.

24) CLE - Andrew Nicholson, St. Bonaventure
Cavs add a capable post scorer with a nice mid-range jumper to pair with the more defensive-minded Tristan Thompson.

25) MEM - Jeffery Taylor, Vanderbilt
Impressive athlete who can defend and knock down the three ball, which is important since it looks like the Grizzlies will be losing their most prolific three-point shooter, O.J. Mayo.

26) IND - John Henson, North Carolina
Loved Henson as a game-changer on the defensive end at the college level but pretty convinced he is going to be manhandled in the Association.

27) MIA - Draymond Green, Michigan State
Defending champs add the third best player in college basketball with the twenty-seventh pick.

28) OKC - Jae Crowder, Marquette
Though undersized, Crowder, a poor man's Larry Johnson, will contribute off the bench as either an extremely physical three or a four in a small-ball lineup.

29) CHI - Tony Wroten, Washington
The Bulls pick up crazy ass Tony Wroten.

30) GSW - Evan Fournier, France
At 6-7, Fournier has good size for a two-guard and possesses a smooth offensive game, though I think he will have trouble defending early in his career.

4 Players To Take in the 2nd Round
Jared Cunningham, Oregon State
Darius Johnson-Odom, Marquette
Doron Lamb, Kentucky
Jordan Taylor, Wisconsin

4 Players To Avoid in the 1st Round
Festus Ezeli, Vanderbilt
John Jenkins, Vanderbilt
Khris Middleton, Texas A&M
Miles Plumlee, Duke

Big Ten in the NBA

Think you may want to draft Jared Sullinger's big ole ass?  Like the cut of Meyers Leonard's jib?  I decided to use historical indicators to project the NBA potential for players coming out of the Big Ten.  For several years, the Big Ten has been criticized greatly for a slower, plodding style that can't match up to more athletic and explosive teams from other conferences...in football.  In basketball, however, the Big Ten consistently churns out excellent, if not at least overachieving, tournament performances from its members.  Have its top basketball players moved on to become noteworthy NBA players?  Let's take a look at the last ten years of first round picks from the NBA:

2002
#11 - Jared Jeffries
#25 - Frank Williams

2003
#24 - Brian Cook

2004
#5 - Devin Harris

2005
#3 - Deron Williams
#24 - Luther Head

2006
#25 - Shannon Brown
#28 - Maurice Ager

2007
#1 - Greg Oden
#4 - Mike Conley
#21 - Daequan Cook
#29 - Alando Tucker

2008
#7 - Eric Gordon
#23 - Kosta Koufos
#29 - D.J. White

2009
#24 - B.J. Mullens

2010
#2 - Evan Turner

2011
#25 - JaJuan Johnson

I thought this was a surprising case study.  Out of eighteen first round picks over ten years, only four players have become above average starting caliber players:  Eric Gordon, Mike Conley, Deron Williams, and Devin Harris.  In fairness, Evan Turner has shown promise, but only has two seasons under his belt, and the Greg Oden tragedy is not really his fault.   Nonetheless, it's hard to believe that a conference as strong as the Big Ten has only produced four starting-caliber first round picks over the last decade.

This trend may be completely coincidental, and I don't have any strong theories on why we haven't seen more NBA success out of this conference.  I suppose a case could be made that the Big Ten, by and large, lacks a sufficient number of athletes to provide NBA-caliber matchups for the conference's elite players.  For example, a few more agile, 6'11" shot blockers could have given a better idea of whether Koufos, D.J. White, Mullens, or Sullinger were/are likely to be able to score close to the basket in the NBA.  This list wouldn't change the way I feel about Draymond Green, because any team drafting him shouldn't expect him to be a long-term starter.  However, there are enough concerns about Leonard and Sullinger that this list would give me a little extra pause in drafting them.

Your Move, Charlotte

One of the main characters from "Sex and the City" was named Charlotte. In my limited exposure to that show, I did not enjoy it (Kim Cattrall wasn't slutty enough for my taste). Somehow, however, that's the closest to success that I can place the Bobcat franchise. The Charlotte Bobcats are not one player away from being a great team.  At this point, they'll be in contention for the top draft pick next year regardless of who they draft with the second overall pick on June 28th.  Nonetheless, it's essential that they capitalize on their first selection in the 2012 draft.  Anthony Davis to New Orleans is a foregone conclusion, and the cast of characters for the second overall pick has expanded to include about a half dozen candidates.  Thomas Robinson, Andre Drummond, Bradley Beal, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Harrison Barnes are all vying for this "honor."  Michael Jordan has been the architect of the crumbling edifice that is the Charlotte Bobcats, but who will he target for the next phase of this project?

Drummond has the highest ceiling, but his bust potential is undeniable.  His motor is a red flag, and most guys don't become hungrier AFTER they earn their first million.  He also teetered at the 40% threshold on free throws during the season.  How much can anyone hope for him to improve there?  Even if he improves by 50%, he's a 60% free throw shooter.  He has no go-to post moves.  So your worst case scenario is a big with no post moves, can't be in at the ends of games due to poor free throw shooting, and we don't know if he'll develop the intensity to have a defensive presence to overcome his potential offensive shortcomings.  I don't hate Drummond, but it's too good of a draft to risk the second pick on him.

Harrison Barnes' second season at UNC exposed him as somewhat one dimensional.  He's a very dangerous at catching and shooting, and is outstanding at pulling up off one to two dribbles.  He has good athleticism, but doesn't utilize it in either rebounding or defending.  I think the hate on Barnes has gone too far, but I think the key with drafting him is not expecting him ever to become the best player on your team.  He's a second fiddle who can open the floor with his shooting.  In a less tangible area, I would worry about Barnes struggling under Jordan's influence.  I won't call him soft, but I think it takes a real SOB to thrive under Jordan's domineering personality, and Barnes doesn't seem to be that guy.

Kidd-Gilchrist is the opposite of Barnes, but somehow also feels like a poor fit for Charlotte.  Don't draft MKG hoping him to be your franchise player.  Also, many compare him to Gerald Wallace, who the Bobcats traded away for fifty cents on the dollar a year ago.  If they valued Wallace so little, how can they justify drafting MKG?

Beal makes, sense, but for some reason, his stock seems to be slipping.  Also, his game isn't that different from Gerald Henderson...although, I won't advocate not drafting anyone because you already have Gerald Henderson.  If Charlotte likes Beal, then trade back a few picks and nab him there.

This leaves Robinson, and guess what?  I did that on purpose. T-Rob is the right pick for Charlotte for a lot of reasons.  He WANTS to be a franchise player.  There is no questioning his intensity.  He still talks about how he is better than Anthony Davis.  It makes him look kind of dumb when he does that, but know what doesn't look dumb?  His shoulders.  If you love Drummond because he passes the look test, then cast your gaze upon Robinson's chiseled frame, which pairs nicely with a much, much more impressive utilization of that physique.  I think Robinson could have a Blake Griffinesque impact for the Bobcats.  He's barely undersized at PF, and he does not appear to be an elite defender.  However, he's going to rebound the hell out of the ball, and he will be one of the most athletic 4s in the Eastern Conference from Day 1.  He also has that chip on his shoulder attitude that Jordan values so much. Take Robinson at 2, then take the best players, regardless of position for your next six picks, because you're terrible, Charlotte.